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Sessions signing begins the post-Rubio backcourt remake
Labor Day is a better time than most to write about the industrious David Kahn, who thus far has made good on his pledge to adopt a blue-collar work ethic toward rebuilding the fortunes of the Wolves franchise. Remarkably, Friday's signing of Ramon Sessions to a 4-year offer sheet worth about $16 million makes more sense in the short term than further out; remarkable because Sessions won't turn 24 until the final week of the 2009-10 season, and because he immediately becomes the best player in Minnesota's backcourt.
This assumes, of course, that the Milwaukee Bucks won't match the Wolves' offer, which is their right but apparently not their preference. The Bucks are a mere $1.6 million below the luxury tax threshold of the salary cap and Sessions is schedule to make $3.7 his first year, meaning he would cost the Bucks $5.8 million--his salary and the extra $2.1 million the team is over the cap. And that's just year one, with Milwaukee staring at Dan Gadzuric's $7.2 mill and Michael Redd's whopping $18.3 mill option next season. Given that Milwaukee is paying Luke Ridnour $6.5 mill to play the point this year, Sessions is a relatively bargain even with the luxury tax hit, but relativity means squat when you're losing 50 games a year *and* staring at luxury tax penalties. That's why they've dealt Richard Jefferson and let Charlie Villanueva walk. Like most everyone, I expect the hapless Bucks won't match.
So why do the rebuilding Wolves want to weight themselves down with $16 million in salary for a point guard right after drafting a pair of lottery points a few months ago? It's a legitimate question. One answer is that Kahn is serious about that two-point guard backcourt theory he trotted out after taking Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn back-to-back on draft night. Another is that he'll be a better mentor for Flynn than fading veteran Chucky Atkins. But the two somewhat related answers that make the most sense to me are that, first, Kahn has to put a club on the floor that can win more than 15 games without disrupting his blueprint too much--hope for the future is great, but the bills still come due in the meantime-- and second, that Sessions has sufficient talent to be a decent value at the price he was signed.
First, let's be clear that Sessions' most natural position is at the point. Yeah, he played a little two-guard in Milwaukee when Redd was hurt, but more than three-times as often, he was running the offense. More importantly, the numbers demonstrate that he knows how to make good decisions with the ball. The best way to demonstrate that for Wolves' fans is to compare Sessions with the three backcourt players who led Minnesota in dimes dropped last season. Fortunately, all four players are within 400 minutes of each other in total playing time:
Name Minutes played Assist/Turnover
Foye 2494 303/150
Miller 2356 326/145
Telfair 2095 343/146
Sessions 2137 452/152
What you can see from these numbers, is that Bassy Telfair would have to ring up another 109 assists while committing just 6 turnovers to match Sessions' total. Mike Miller would have to drop 126 dimes and commit just 7 turnovers; and Randy Foye would have to go 149/2--a pretty gaudy 74.5/1 assist to turnover ration--to equal Ramon. In other words, Session will commit turnovers at about the same rate as Foye/Miller/Telfair, but provide about 30% more assists in the same amount of playing time. Sessions' career high of 24 assists is likewise light year's ahead of the ceilings of Foye and Miller and (thus far anyway) Telfair.
Ah, but the Wolves already have their point guard of the future in Flynn, if not Rubio, who was their announced starter before he stayed in Spain. Unless Flynn is a bust and Rubio remains a no-show, Sessions is going to have to earn a decent chunk of his keep at the two-guard. Is that possible? Well, it's not optimal, but remember, the Wolves weren't exactly world-beaters at the off-guard last season either. Sessions at the 2 would provide a different look than what the Wolves showed with Miller and Foye sharing the spot in 2008-09, but the production would be about the same. Sessions is not an adept outside shooter--he attempted just 34 treys all of last season, making 6. That's a far cry from the shot chart one would compile on Foye and Miller, and it's not going to spread the floor for Jefferson and Love to operate down low. But Sessions compensates by getting to line much more frequently than Foye and Miller. Specifically, he had 72 more free throw attempts in 350 fewer minutes than Foye, and 205 more FTA in 219 fewer minutes than Miller. So, when you look at how all this balances out in terms of offensive production, in terms of volume of points, Foye is first, Sessions second and Miller third; in terms of offensive efficiency (points per FGA, which adds FTs to eFG%), Miller is first, Sessions second and Foye third.
If you want to put a positive spin on this, then you could say that in Sessions the Wolves will have a much better passer at shooting guard without losing any scoring punch. You can say that Sessions is capable of putting up that kind of production while being paid $6 million less than Miller will earn this year, and a little bit less than the size of Foye's qualifying offer for next season. Meanwhile, Sessions is nearly two years younger than Foye and even a year younger than the erstwhile wunderkind, Telfair.
All well and good, but let's look at the negatives, and the most obvious one is defense. Moving the 6-4 Foye over to shooting guard last year highlighted how overmatched he became against tall 2's, and how frequently opponents had an off-guard 6-6 or larger in their starting lineup. Sessions is listed as an inch shorter and 20 pounds lighter than Foye. Like Foye and Miller, his strengths are primarily on the offensive side of the ball. Put simply, unless his effort and savvy improve dramatically, his size at the 2 will be a defensive liability.
There is also the question of chemistry and attitude. Sessions is a scrapper who came up through the D-League, and will be cashing in his first major payday this season. How amenable and flexible will he be for a franchise that, if everything goes according to plan, won't have him in its starting lineup at the end of his contract, when he'll be entering the prime of his career? Personally, I wouldn't foreclose the possibility that he will play more point guard than most people currently anticipate--Flynn shows all the signs of being a quality performer in this league, but learning the point as a rookie will be a bumpy road, and 30 minutes per game would be an achievement. That leaves space for Sessions to play as much at the point as he does at the two-guard.
But let's go back to the beginning of this post--Kahn's relentless industry in the service of drumming up interest, hope, and perhaps a few more wins for this ballclub. Sources who have been reliable in the past about Wolves-related happenings indicate that Kahn's backcourt makeover is far from complete this off-season, even if the Bucks don't match and Sessions is in the fold. There are possibilities, not yet firmed, but places where Kahn might be able to go to get temporary backcourt help for this season. New Orleans is over the salary cap and with well publicized financial worries. Now that they've drafted Darren Collison to back up Chris Paul, do they really need combo guard Antonio Daniels; or, if they do, does that make shooting guard Devin Brown expendable? (Daniels, who makes $5 m more than Brown, would seem more likely to move.) Meanwhile, if the rumors about Phoenix dumping Sasha Pavlovic are accurate, wouldn't he complement both Flynn and Sessions in the backcourt this season? Daniels and Brown have expiring contracts, and Pavlovic can be waived by Phoenix right now.
And I haven't even talked about the ace coaching staff that is being assembled. Not many dull moments thus far in the Kahn regime. Of course, they haven't played any games yet either.
35 Reader Comments
I'll credit Rambis for assembling a quality coaching group.
Sessions in my view was the pick up of the summer to date. While his 3-point shooting is poor, his inside the arch shooting is very serviceable.
Although Rubio is not in this post, I will note an interesting piece from yesterday posted at Canis. According to the piece, Rubio was not inclined to enter the NBA draft but he and his family were convinced to do so by Fegan.
I also like how this trade was made right after the signing of Rambis, and yet there is no question who did the deal. For too long we have had a combo platter coach/GM, now it's clear who is doing what.
Good to have you back, Britt. Your thoughts reflect my own (although with much more depth).
There are two things to love about the Sessions pickup. One is that the Wolves need two point guards, plain and simple, and we really had none last year, at least as potential starters. (Witness Bassy's relegation in LA.)
Two - and this seems to be a lovable hallmark of Kahn's brief tenure - Sessions is an *asset.* All the freakout about eventually having *three* starting point guards is idiotic; if we have that pleasant problem, we'll trade one of them for value.
Wolves fans who haven't had a quality, young point since Marbury should know how valuable that particular commodity is. The signing - at a great price, with competitors facing cap problems - is supersmart.
I should also mention one other thing I love about the deal. All the major-market cap-freer-uppers, seemingly, are playing for 2010 free agents. That's a market we simply can't compete in. So scoring 2009 value is that much smarter, while not hurting 2010 draft position, which is the best way for us to acquire talent.
And if Kahn is really clever, we may even find value in 2011. If you look at who's guaranteed a roster spot that year, it's Al, Gomes and Sessions (and Rubio if he comes). It's our call on Love, Flynn, Ellington.
With the possible exception of Gomes, those are exactly the players you want to keep - no bad long-term deals in the bunch, and the price for all is about $32 million ($33.5 million with Rubio.) That's the way to free cap and retain value, and Kahn deserves a lot of credit for getting us there.
Two big reasons why this is a good move:
1) The basketball in 2009-10 will be bearable, and sometimes fun, to watch. Flynn-Ellington as a starting backcourt would have been awful at times, and mediocre at best, in their rookie seasons.
2) Love-Jefferson will get a chance to lead a decent team. In theory, rebuilding teams want a crack at the very-top end talent in the draft and are willing to sacrifice wins for it. To some extent I'm okay with a little bit of tanking, if it means cutting veteran minutes and letting the young players grow. But it also helps to produce good basketball with the young core, and it might really damage Love and Jefferson to have another dreadful season. Sessions won't make us a 40-win team, but a core unit of Sessions-Gomes-Love-Jefferson is not bad at all, and this team should look competitive almost every night, even if they only win 20-some games.
I'm loving David Kahn so far.
**Worth a read**
True Hoop's profile on sessions from earlier in the summer: http://is.gd/33abF
I like the Sessions pick up. I also appreciate that by hook or by crook we will end up with a decent point guard and some good trade bait in a season or two. Excellent value in all of his additions thus far, though the rest of the off season will be interesting. LOVING the coaching staff, could not imagine a better staff to run with for a few years. I am on the Khan Kool-aid, until I am inevitably forced to endure 4 straight 15 pt losses in January.
As a fan with low basketball I.Q. I can say that so far Kahn has me interested in a team I expect to win well-under 40 games next year. To-the-death loyaylty and failure to admit mistakes got the Wolves to their (knock on wood) nadir as a franchise.
Kahn has made his fiery march to the sea and is beginning his reconstruction period. As David said, I am behind the Kahn philosophy of collecting assets at this point. No one knows what this team will be like so the approach of getting the best young talent they can as well as easily moveable, expiring contracts is just plain smart front office execution. Even the result of the Rubio soap opera while disappointing was always the moat likely scenario to play out. A teenager in debt to his former club for millions would be a combinatio n of brazen and foolish to cross the pond to play for pretty much nothing for two years instead of securing a lucrative buyout with a better option to come to the NBA after a couple/few years. It just made sense to me.
Now even with low expectations it will still be somthing different to watch the Wolves lose without Foye, McCants and Miller disappointing. At least we will have new players to be disappointed in. While I say this tounge-in-cheek it still has a kernel of truth to it. A very fresh start with a team full of new faces on the court, the bench and the front office will get me to pau attention for at least the first half of the year and any good or exciting play will keep me for the second.
I thought that if Kahn was going to get into the FA market, it would be at about this time because everyone who was going to get paid would've gotten paid and he would be able to get good value. With that said, I never thought they'd get Sessions. Before Kahn took over, I thought he'd be a good addition at the MLE, but thought the draft erased any reason for him to be here. But it's definitely one of those "get assets" moves that's just a good move no matter when it happens.
I think the get-to-the-line aspect is underrated as a reason why the Wolves' offense won't drop off that much or at all from last year. Foye and Telfair weren't serious threats to finish at the rim or draw fouls with consistency, and something tells me this year's team will get more easy hoops from dribble penetration/PnR/PnP/free throws. It remains to be seen how their outside shooting stacks up, but they weren't that good from there last year anyway.
A great pickup by Kahn. This should help inch us closer to the 30 wins plateau, which makes following the Wolves tolerable for fans and gives the players a sense we're moving in the right direction, while still likely keeping our own Clipper-owed lottery pick. We needed added depth at the point and the fact that Sessions can play the 2 is huge, given our extraordinary lack of depth on the wings. It would've been unfair to expect too much out of an all rookie backcourt this year, and it could've had negative repercussions in for their development. The fact that we get an unquestionable asset at a reasonable price makes this a no brainer. With regards to some complaints out there concerning a crowded backcourt, that's a problem that isn't on the horizon for 2, probably 3, years. Always better to have too many assets, especially when they aren't overpriced capwise. Here's to hoping that Milwaukee won't match.
I like the Sessions deal, in that he does something no other Wolf in recent memory has done, if ever. He gets to the line. Last year he went to the line a whopping 9.8 times per game, making nearly 80% of them. Not only does that help by breaking down the defense and creates scoring opportunities for others, it also gets the team into the bonus much quicker. By comparison. KG got to the line 6.6 times per game his final year in Minnesota. The Flip Saunders years were marked by jump shooting teams that rarely went to the free throw line, and players who avoided contact in hopes of getting off a shot at all costs. It was disheartening to watch that, as many games were lost at the line. I'm confident the new staff will get these guys to play the right way. If you fake your man into the air, jump into him and create contact and get to that line, instead of avoiding him. When you combine Sessions with Flynn's abilities to penetrate and get to the line, a lot of our games should be decided in the paint. We lost quite a few close games last year, and this team may have the ability to turn the close ones into victories. On another note, Britt, Khan said there are still a lot of good free agents available out there. Do you have any information on who Khan may be interested in, or of the remaining free agents, who would be your choices as we finalize our roster?
Mano, lets hope. I can't take another passive jump shooting club. I enjoy my team putting the other team on their heals.
Not related but I'd like to tip my hat to Bruce Bowen, one of the all time one on one defenders the NBA ever saw.
Dennis Johnson of the Celtics, and Bobby Jones of the Malone/Dr J sixers were comparable. Playing defense like that takes courage, fortitude, and tremendous will, and sacrifice you don't see in many other places other than the Marine Corp...and Bruce dragged his sneaker over Wally Z's face. A moment a lot of Wolves fans remember with guilty relish. Hey, Bowen had to take his shot Wally was actually in the game, not at the clinic or the spa.
Sixteen weeks tomorrow. That's how long its been since David Kahn was hired by Glen Taylor.
Can Kev.Check.
Strip roster to studs.Check.
Make huge splash at draft. Check.
Three trips to Spain. Check.
Hire best fit for Head Coach. Check.
Help hire great assistants. Check.
Acquire assets. Check.
Make good on "hardest working" promise.
Big Check.
Sessions is the latest solid move in 16 weeks of solid moves.
Mano--
I am intrigued by the possibility of plucking either Antonio Daniels or Devin Brown--but especially Daniels--from New Orleans via a trade. I don't know if it will happen, but, given the past reliability of my sources, I am certain it has been discussed. Daniels would give the Wolves more length and firmer defense in the backcourt, things that are woefully lacking at the current time.
Of the free agents, I'd be okay with Pavlovic, who can shoot the trey. Of course it isn't yet official that Phoenix will waive him. As for the conventional free agents currently on the market, I don't think there's a game changer in the bunch that wouldn't disrupt what Kahn is trying to do, but if I had my pick of the litter in terms of the Wolves going forward, I'd consider James Singleton, a 6-9 restricted free agent with Dallas, who has a qualifying at just over a million a year. Would Dallas match if he was offered a little more than that, say $2.5 m over two years? Dunno, because Cuban doesn't care about the luxury tax. But Singleton is only 25, and played a career high 884 minutes for the Mavs last season, mostly as a power forward in their little-ball lineup--I can see him at the 3 in Minnesota. If you're looking to run and defend, he'd be a decent 8th or 9th man.
Given my choices, I'd still rather have Antonio Daniels. A class act and a good influence on any team.
Well is appears that Britt has gotten his wish. The Wolves have acquired Antonio Daniels and a 2014 2nd round pick for Darius Songalia and Bobby Brown. Another solid minor move for Kahn...can't believe that New Orleans took on Songalia's contract!
Gotta love my sources. You'll note that I wrote about Daniels coming here in the wee hours between Monday night and Tuesday dawn. Credit to them--they know who they are.
It seems like I go further in the tank for Kahn every time he makes a move. It's now happened twice more, first with the Sessions signing and now with the Daniels deal (nice prognostication there Britt, btw).
It's refreshing to see someone who so clearly is interested in, as Mr. Brauer said, just acquiring assets for the club. So many people get axle-wrapped thinking about what positional holes the team has to fill, when the fact of the matter is the Wolves are so far from contention that it's barely worth worrying about; as long as we don't overpay for anyone, we can easily trade whatever players we wish when the time is right.
I would agree that Kahn is attempting to be the NBA's James Brown--the hardest working man in sports business. In the end though, he'll have to be good at the core dynamic of rebuilding this small market franchise: drafting talent. All the moves, all the cap space won't mean a thing unless he and his team have an eye for college players.
That being said, it's still fun watching moves being made. Remember all those years when McHale would say it takes two to make a trade, only to have the trades he did make plummet the team further into the abyss? Ah, the memories!
With the Daniels trade, Kahn squeezed one more solid move into his first 16 weeks.
Its not quite as elegant as a President's first 100 days, but an impressive early body of work.
Britt-
There's a rumor on seemingly well connected New England Blog of the Wolves dealing Atkins and Wilkins for Scalabrine, Tony Allen and J.R. Giddens.
Any fire there?
As far as the Daniels deal. Awesome to move Songaila's contract. Daniels fills the veteran backcourt role and the financial ramifications are obvious.
Sessions. Yes please. There's some rumblings that Milwaukee could pull a deal to shed salary and match (Kurt Thomas for Greg Buckner's partially guaranteed deal), but if not, the deal is a the best bargain of the summer. Sessions will get minutes here and put up numbers. Anyone think that he won't continue to produce? He's a young, affordable, and productive asset and will have trade value going forward at the least if only stays at the same level as last year. He's still young though and has potential to get even better. Watch out if he develops a reliable jumper/3 pt shot.
I like the deal not only for the savings but for the increased roster balance. Songaila and Cardinal are similar enough that his loss isn't significant, and Daniels could play 1 and 2.
Bucks decline to match Sessions offer
By Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel
Sept. 11, 2009 1:23 p.m.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/59050727.html
"The long wait is finally over for Ramon Sessions. Bucks general manager John Hammond confirmed today he will not match the four-year, $16.4 million offer sheet tendered by the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Bucks were facing a 4 p.m. deadline to match the offer or relinquish the rights to the 6-foot-3 point guard. Now the 23-year-old Sessions will join the Timberwolves and could become the team’s starting shooting guard in a tandem with rookie point guard Jonny Flynn. "We are not going to match the Ramon Sessions offer sheet," Hammond said today. "As always we will be diligent in looking to improve our roster. We wish Ramon the very best."
I don't care how many games they win this year. Kahn definitely has me interested in the Wolves again and I will even set foot in Target Center this season for the first time in 3 years.
Britt - we are inside of two weeks from the season starting up. What is your plan for the season ahead?
AK on behalf of your readership
Also interested on your take on the Referee lockout ahead. Impact on the game as well as how the refs are a pawn in the CBA negotiations ahead with the players...
Are we losing Mr. Robson to Sports Illustrated?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/britt_robson/09/23/chandle...
If so, bad for us, good for him and SI!
I saw that too regarding SI. Britt is very deserving of a job like that. I hope he can find some time for us lowly Wolves fans...but my guess is the big time will take all his spare cycles.
Good luck Britt. Well deserved!!
Britt is a writer, so I presume that he will continue to write for SI, MinnPost.com, the Strib, and any other source that will pay his way. I too hope we can continue to enjoy his thoughts regarding the Wolves and other Minnesota subjects (you seem to be writing a fair number of music pieces lately.) Fan that he is, I figure no one can keep him from posting his thoughtful insights someplace.
Where in the world is Britt Robson?
He's here:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/britt_robson/10/01/dumars....
Good for you Britt. Well deserved.
Britt hates us. Why else would he be punishing us like this?
"why hast thou forsaken us??!!"
Congratulations, Mr. Robson. I hope you still get time to write about the Wolves; SI's lucky to have you writing about the league.
It'd sure be nice if Britt would let his loyal readers know what is going on regarding his future...
where is another great site for wovles coverage? Seems like the authors are falling by the wayside....
I'm also a bit disappointed there's no message here for us, at least in the comments.
I do wish Britt the best, it's well deserved and I congratulate him on this. I'll be reading the stuff he puts out (and already have what has been put out, great stuff).
@Wovlesie, through this site I've found Canis Hoopus. It's a lot different than what Britt did but you might find your home there like I did.
There's also Twolvesblog, howlintwolf.com and off course Zgoda's blog. I'm sure there are some more.
I second Canis Hoopus.
No one writer there is as good as Britt, but it's a great community - very active and lots of insight, and in a generally respectful package.
BTW - we have an ESPN fantasy NBA league drafting this Saturday, if anyone is interested email me at djzeaman @ gmail.com and I'll send you an invite.
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