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The Rubio Matter: Let It Ride
The sports blogs were abuzz with Rubio "news" again today, claiming he'd been bought by a team in Barcelona for the next six years. A few hours later, more reports either debunked that info or declared it premature, but the whole thing gave everyone a chance to reiterate their positions on the matter.
Well, I certainly don't want to be left out.
I've long expected that Rubio will stay in Spain for at least a year or two, and think that is close to a best-case scenario for the Wolves. The best-case scenario would have been an immediate buyout from his current Euro team, Joventut, and a seamless transition into the NBA. But a variety of circumstances--Rubio's youth, where he was drafted, the size of the buyout from Joventut, the limitations on what the Wolves could contribute under NBA rules, who drafted him, and who else the Wolves drafted--were all seams that conspired to make an immediate move problematical. Okay, fine.
For the sake of argument (or at least a slightly new scenario), let's say that reports of the Barcelona deal are merely premature and eventually accurate. Rubio will reportedly be paid more in Spain than he'd make in the NBA over a two-year period, after which the cost to buy out his contract would be lowered considerably. This is a positive development for the Wolves for a number of reasons.
* It allows the team to have both of its lottery point guards playing full time against quality competition.
* If Rubio makes exceptional progress, he still must begin the NBA rookie salary tier from square one whenever he arrives. The Wolves don't have to pay him during his time in Europe.
* If Rubio struggles, it is a strong indication he is not yet ready for NBA-caliber ball, something the Wolves would learn without any tangible detriment to their 2009-10 season.
* It is true, however, that the absence of Rubio, the #5 overall pick who was the main reason for the departure of Randy Foye and Mike Miller, will result in another desultory season in Minnesota. But since this is the onset of a fairly extensive overhaul of the Wolves, losing improves the odds of a better player being chosen in next year's draft.
* Barring a total pratfall over in Europe, the allure of Rubio is not likely to abate. For example, he remains an ongoing fixation of Knicks fans despite the fact that in the current scheme of things New York has nothing of real value to offer the Wolves. Few things are more enticing than a prospect deemed to have magnificent potential. Rubio, who has been named the defensive player of his league, is a rangy 6-4, held his own against NBA stars at the Olympics and plays with a flair that sells tickets, has magnificent potential. If he continues his upward arc over in Spain, the potential compensation for another team plucking him from the Wolves rises dramatically, while what the Wolves pay him remains the same.
* Time is on the Timbewolves' side. The most frequently heard criticism of Rubio is that he will get ground up and spat out by the more physical play in the NBA. But in the next two years, Rubio will age from 18 to 20, years that typically provide more strength and sinew, especially if emphasized in training. For that matter, that strengthening process continues in the early twenties. (Anyone remember what KG looked like as a teenager? The correct word is spindly.) Two years from now, Rubio will still be two months away from the legal drinking age; six months younger than Corey Brewer when he was drafted by the Wolves, and more than two years younger than Randy Foye was when he was drafted by Minnesota. Got that? Rubio could play over in Europe for 4 more years, giving him nearly a decade of professional experience, considering he started at age 14, and he'd still be younger than Foye was the first time he stepped on the court as a Timberwolf.
Ever since the draft was completed, there have been three lines of criticism in the fallout over Rubio. One is that the Wolves will have wasted a draft pick if Rubio isn't here to contribute immediately. Another is that a team from the frozen tundra is stupid to have utilized the right to draft a precocious but immature kid from sunny Spain, who has a vision of playing with the stars of his boyhood in a major market. The third is Minnesota was stupid to take Jonny Flynn, another point guard, immediately after Rubio, creating a redundance while conveying to Rubio that even in the tundra, he'd have to earn his status.
The first criticism is a tunnel vision view. It likely stems from the same sources that complained about the Wolves being in a rut when they failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs--while making the playoffs--six or seven years in a row. Frankly, I didn't mind those years--I saw a lot of quality basketball--but the point is, if your goal and purpose is a championship or bust, which is essentially what new honcho David Kahn has preached since the day he was hired, then you have to take a few steps backward to prepare for a championship run. The youth and status of Rubio clearly fits this plan, regardless of whether he is in Minneapolis or Barcelona.
The second criticism is typical and tiresome big-city chauvinism. Having been born and raised in the Boston media market, I know the drill. I'll even grant the obvious: On the open market, big cities and warm climates are more attractive to NBA players. I'm not surprised if Rubio is bummed about the Wolves owning his rights, and by his petulant reaction. But how long and how severely he allows that initial disappointment to affect his game and his career will be a sign of his character. Players who try to dictate their own terms before they've proven anything aren't always flops--John Elway is a prominent example of that in football. But for every Elway there is a Steve Francis, a guy who balked at being drafted by a team, got his wish of a new location and big bucks over a long NBA career besides. And what's his legacy? Or closer to home, compare Kevin Garnett, a kid from South Carolina victimized by stupid front office decisions for many a year while staying loyal and thirsty for his small market ballclub in the tundra--it only primed him to become the catalyst of a champion once he got the chance. By contrast, Stefon Marbury pitched a bitch about the then-newly instituted CBA not allowing him to make as much or more than KG, and then forced himself into the market he desired. How'd that work out? I'm not saying character is more important than talent in building a champion, but it can't be ignored. And a player who can't adjust to irrevocable rules beyond his control has a character flaw. As I've said before, I think Rubio is the real deal, but only one person can prove me right or wrong, and it isn't David Kahn or Jonny Flynn.
Team management 101 stipulates that if you think someone is the real deal, you do your best to procure his services any way possible. Kahn, who has stated that Al Jefferson is the second best player on a championship contender and that he'd prefer his top star to be a backcourt player given the current style of play in the NBA, is gambling that Rubio (and/or Flynn) is the goods. His judgment may be erroneous, in which case he'll suffer the consequences, but his management approach is sound. And that, along with luck, is about the only rebuttal a perpetual loser in a cold climate can make to a glitzy big city franchise. Dumb management can screw up the best of circumstances, right, Knick fans? (Next year I'll ask the folks in Phoenix.) And smart management can make a team in the least hospitable of environments compelling and desireable, as Sam Presti is demonstrating in Oklahoma City, and Pops has conclusively proven in small-market San Antonio. I have no idea how David Kahn's big scheme will turn out, but dumping the need for future salary decisions on middle-of-the-pack role players like Foye and Miller for the rights to Rubio is smart management. Indeed, the level of scrutiny and criticism directed Kahn's way over his Rubio pick, coupled with banter about how filch him for a bigger city outfit, proves it was a smart move.
As for the third criticism, the redundancy thing is looking moot: As stated earlier, the Wolves will likely have both their lottery points logging heavy minutes. If Flynn flourishes, that's more Rubio insurance and more Rubio leverage for trades and signings down the road--a solid point in the hand, and perhaps an even more attractive point in the bush. If Flynn falters, well, again, that will indicate bad judgment, which can happen regardless of what position the player plays. Remember how Kevin McHale preferred Randy Foye over Brandon Roy because there was less of an injury risk and because Foye was more likely to fulfill a point guard duties and not crowd Shaddy McCants at the 2? Yes, the deal was a heartbreaker for Wolves fans because McHale was so specifically wrong in his judgments, but would it have been less painful if the team had instead swapped Roy for Shelden Williams (taken before both Foye and Roy)? No. Bad judgment is bad judgment. About the only positional sin Kahn could have made in this draft would have been taking a power forward.
As for character, Flynn appears to have it in spades. Whether the talent also comes in the package is yet to be determined, but we know that, unlike Randy Foye, Flynn's skill set makes him a natural at one specific position on the court. And unlike Mike Miller, he will grasp the obvious role he is destined to play for the ballclub and do his best to fulfill the elements contained in that role.
When the Wolves limp to the lottery this season while Rubio toils in Barcelona, the boo birds and the bandwagon-leavers will be in ascendance. If the same can be said two or three years from now, then the smart, die-hard fans of this franchise will follow them. Until then, judgments about a roster that has been extensively dismantled and partially rebuilt seem as premature as the prognoses about the fate of Rubio's career.
51 Reader Comments
Welcome back Britt, hope you enjoyed your trip.
The Wolves are not going to do much damage for the next two years anyway. And, who knows, in 2011 we may have a blessed convergence where all force fields meld into one heavenly glow and beam the Wolves into intergalactic bliss.
The speculation will hopefully subside once the season starts. But, I fear, that it will resurface once the Wolves return to their losing record and the "should haves" and the "what were they thinking" crow birds will return with a vengeance.
Prepare yourselves for Groundhog Day times 50! Maybe even a Rubio sighting in Minnesota or two. We've seen some of this with the Russian center we drafted in the 2008 NBA Draft, "if only x was here we would y" Which is a long way of saying your subtitle "let it ride" is correct. Wake me up about Rubio when he is signed and delivered at Target Center, but not before.
What I will find entertaining this season, despite a obvious losing record, is how Jonny Flynn jumps on a team mate's back if there is any slacking. The kid oozes leadership and appears not to suffer bad attitudes well.
I'll agree that the Rubio situation is out of our hands at this point, and I'm not as optimistic as I once was that he'll play here this year.
From what I've read about Flynn, he seems like a guy who can take on a leadership role on this team - the exact role that Foye professed to have until he was moved. Could Rubio be a leader like that at 18? Probably not, even though I'm encouraged by his overseas experience (it shows he can fit in in a locker room more than anything).
Either way, I'd much rather talk about Rubio than endure speculation on Foye, Miller, etc. Instead, we get the benefit of cheering for those guys on Flip's team. And we get Darius Songalia, who reminds me a bit of a white Brian Cardinal.
There are some other good things about waiting for Rubio.
If he comes over after 2 years, we'll be in a much better position to win by then. He likes to win, if he comes over now and starts losing, even if we are starting to turn a corner by the end of his rookie contract, he may have tired of the losing and want to move on to a better team that doesn't have a history of losing.
Think of it this way, we get a much better, more polished Rubio, at a discount. If we get him now, we'll get him raw and young. Plus, any angst, if it truly exists, should be gone by the time he's 24 (when his rookie contract runs out if he waits two years to come over). A more talented, humble Rubio is what I want.
Another thing is, if Flynn does turn out to be great, then we won't be attempting to extend their contracts at the same time...I guess we can throw this benefit out, however, if we draft someone great in the next 2 drafts who will also be looking for a payday.
Error acknowledged for early readers of this piece: Originally, the text stated that Rubio could wait five years to come over and still be younger than Foye was for his Wolves' debut. That was fuzzy math and has been corrected to four years.
Or to be specific: Rubio will turn 19 on Oct 21. Foye had turned 23 on September 24 when he made his rookie debut on opening day of the 2006-07 season.
Good analysis, Britt. As a fan, I would be bummed to not have Rubio here. I remember a lot of guys talking about him and wishing the Wolves would get the 1 or 2 in the draft to get him, and then, on draft night (a day after my son was born, no less), I'm holding my son in my arms and he falls to us at no. 5! What a sense of elation!
We desperately need a #2--that seems to be the best place to find a superstar player, and hopefully we'll get that in next year's draft or via free agency. It will be really interesting to see what the next few years holds for the team.
Great to see a new entry, Britt. I look forward to reading you all season. As for the Rubio saga, I do think it's hilarious the way much of the national media have denigrated Kahn's draft decisions. I have also always thought Rubio would be spending at least 1-2 years in Europe, the buyout issue is just too tough. So, why the hell not draft Flynn for insurance and, just maybe, discover he can be our PG? I had a soft heart for Bassy, but he was never going to start for us down the road; let's give those minutes to Flynn, and to Rubio, if he makes a Favre-like entrance at the last moment. I love the blowing-up-the-team portion of Kahn's master plan and can't wait to see what happens next.
Wow, i did not think anyone could write a more retarded article. To say that it's good for Minn if Rubio stays in europe for 2 more years is just ridiculous. You don't draft a player in the top 6 to let him develop in europe over the next 2 years. If you don't think he's ready to contribute now that's fine but you'd better have him practicing and working on his game under your watch (in minnesota) If your going to trade miller and foye for a high pick then you want whoever that player is to come in and learn how to play with the current players they already have. ie see how Ok. City is doing it, you draft 4 young solid players and let them mesh for a couple of years so you can make some title runs. Fact of the matter is that drafting 2 point guards that high was a ridiculous move in the 1st place if your plan was to play them together. And believe me no one is buying that logic (not even the Coach they just hired for god sake)
Hi Zach:
Of course, Kahn fully expected Rubio to come over when we drafted him, or at least was aware that such an option was quite possible. Given his superstar potential, and the fact that we're rebuilding, it was a good risk to take.
Also, I'm pretty sure that when Kahn drafted Rubio, he was quoted as saying something like,
"Well, our main goal was to really torque off Zach with our drafting choices. I think we accomplished that tonight." ;)
Zach--
Deciphering the thicket of your verbiage to figure out what you are actually trying to say is risky, but I'll try and respond.
Cohesion is certainly a crucial part of building a championship contender. Not having Rubio here for a year or two damages that cohesion. To a lesser extent (much lesser, I'd argue), so does having two young lottery picks who play the same position.
But David Kahn concluded--correctly, I believe--that the Wolves would become at best a fringe playoff team with the roster he inherited. So he dismantled it pretty thoroughly, concentrating on stockpiling the most talent possible over the next two or three seasons before concerning himself with the more refined question of cohesion. I think it is pretty obvious that Rubio and Flynn were drafted 5 and 6 because the Wolves considered them the best players on the board at the time.
I agree that the notion of a Flynn-Rubio backcourt for extended minutes always seemed to be a canard. But if Rubio stays in Europe for a year or two, both players can play their natural position, point guard, against quality competition. Thus far, Flynn has opened some eyes among NBA watchers with his Summer League performance, and Rubio remains a highly desireable commodity, who figures to become even more valuable as he matures. The Wolves own his rights and don't have to pay for that maturation process. One or the other can eventually be traded for more talent, or the Wolves can benefit from the luxury of depth at a crucial position.
By your post I gather that you would prefer the Wolves drafted someone they felt was less talented but would be assured of immediately starting his NBA career with the team. On this we disagree. This was widely considered to be a weak draft, with precious few chances to grab that impact player that can propel a franchise to another level. Rubio has that kind of potential. Will he realize it? Who knows? But the only ways you get a player of that caliber with the 5th overall pick are because a franchise picking earlier makes a mistake--like Detroit choosing Darko and letting Melo, Bosh and Wade slip to 3/4/5--or with some baggage like a Euro buyout.
Bottom line, the Wolves seem to have two very valuable commodities with their lottery picks this season. They have also cleared ample salary cap space and positioned themselves to have a high draft choice next year. This is the way to rebuild in the NBA, especially if you are in a cold weather climate without a great winning tradition or a sizable black community support network.
You mention OKC, and I agree they are going about things the right way. They also have had a top 4 draft pick the past three years, precisely because they were willing to be patient (and got lucky in the lottery) and build from the ground up. To me, simply saying the Wolves have failed because Rubio isn't here immediately and Flynn also plays the point is short-sighted and lacks context. In other words, you seem to demonstrate a retarded cognition of what the Wolves are trying to do.
I have rarely read a column that wasn't driven by the idea that we need it now (whatever that it may be). Lottery picks are less than 50 50 in regards to production, go ahead give me a list. Very well written well thought out article and all those people posting here that believe the wolves, more specifically David Kahn screwed up are in jobs that they should keep. Nobody knows how a player will turn out until they're in the NBA for a couple of years. Brit, you may be completely wrong however i've believed your opinion to be right (and at least appreciate you exploring other thought processes) before i knew you existed. thanks for writing and i'll be reading more.
Nice work as usual, Britt. Zach, Britt broke down your argument pretty well, but I'd add this: they've proven nothing yet. They have fewer wins in the past two seasons than the Wolves despite having more talent and similar coaching. Are they potentially set up better for the future? At this point, yes. But even a similarly-talented young team in Portland was at .500 by Brandon Roy's second season.
Britt, what's your take on the assistant situation? What types of coaches do you think they should be looking to have on the staff? Also, what are your opinions of the people already mentioned (Bickerstaff as staying and Wohl, Theus, and Laimbeer being added)?
Oops. When I said they, I was referring to the Thunder. The Thunder have proven nothing on the court.
I should add to my comment above that I think we're torn, as Wolves fans and as NBA fans, on a few competing issues.
First is that I think we all want to see the best possible product on the court. I'm sure I wasn't the only one a bit crestfallen when Josh Childress (a player whose game I admire) went overseas. I don't get to watch a top ballplayer on a regular basis anymore. I want to watch Rubio, and I want the NBA to be filled with the best players from around the world.
The competing interest is what's best for our team. I don't want to put our young squad in a position where they "pick sides" on a one guy or the other, similar to what's going on with our Vikes at the moment. I want both Rubio and Flynn to develop into confident leaders. When our team gets inevitably rattled, that's not the time to swap one rookie for another. One of those two players is going to have slowed growth if they're both on the same team.
But those two interests are those of a selfish hoops enthusiast like myself. The important thing is this: Ricky is under no obligation to sink himself into a mountain of debt, and that's exactly what happens if he comes here now. There's no way around it unless another team buys his contract out and offers a lesser buyout in a couple of years, as was initially reported. I'm completely sympathetic to Rubio's position right now - the risk of injury, poor performance, etc. is too great for him to put all his eggs in one basket.
As usual, Britt, great post!
First, a question for antonymous: how many other shades of Brian Cardinal are out there? ;)
One serious point I would like to make is why are we babying Rubio in the sense of feeling like we have to be 'good enough' or 'win enough' for him to want to come? I think that's just our MN inferiority complex coming out.
I, for one, am greatly heartened by Ricky's desire to play in the NBA. The evidence is overwhelming that he wants to be here and not elsewhere--considering all the Euro options immediately available to him, if he didn't want to be here something would be done by now, (weeks ago, actually). As Britt put it, that's part of his character coming through.
As for wonderful, wonderful Zach, you're certainly who Britt was describing in criticisms 1 and 3. Thank you for commenting, as it was such a great foil for illustrating how refreshing it is to read the well thought out and argued points and counterpoints posed by Britt and the usual posters on this site. When it comes to sports commentary and analysis there is no substitute for logic based in evidence, if which Britt offers a lot and others, not so much.
The more pertinent question yet to be addressed is whether Wolves fans buy tickets over the next two years to watch a sub-30 win team. Winters do get cold and NBA League Pass is an easy distraction.
For true basketball fans, watching the losing home team and the way they've played is stomach wrenching. Britt has an excuse because he has to watch the loses tick off in order to provide knowledgeable insights.
Unless Taylor has a stimulus check or two coming his way, I question the Wolves long term financial viability. More dog days ahead I fear.
Drafting both Rubio and Flynn is the perfect example of the strategy"Take the BPA" (best player available).
To Zach, if you could draft a high schooler then afford to wait for him to play two years in college...why not? I think it's a pretty safe assumption that the Euroleague is at least the equal of the NCAA when it comes to a training ground for point guards.
I, like Britt, believe that Rubio's development may be best served logging minutes in Europe. With that said this team could really benefit from the hoopla that would accompany him should he play next season (see Favre-Vikes). The wolves have positioned themselves to be major players in next years free agency period and I think its a tough sell to land any quality on a team that wins less than 20 games. Not that Rubio's presence here next year vaults them above a 40 win season but I think it clarifies how much potential this team truly has -and lets face it potential is what seems to be the only thing we currently offer
CA--that's a very good question. The only hope I have is that, in scrapping much of the old team and old leadership, Rambis and at least Flynn will play a different game than the old team. As people have said before, if you have to watch a losing product, it's a lot more fun to watch one that scores 100+ a night (i,e. a running team) than one that struggles to reach 90.
The OKC model is a good one to follow as well. Hopefully Flynn and Ellington can captivate us this season. Shoot--hopefully Brewer can bring a compelling story line to the season!
By drafting Rubio, the Wolves took the BPA, and I applaud them for it. However. When Kahn traded for Washington's #5 pick, he was not trying for Rubio. He was hoping for Harden or Evans. We still don't have an NBA-quality starting shooting guard on our roster. Personally, I hope Rubio stays in Spain for another year or two. That guarantees us a top-five pick next year, and gives Flynn a chance to establish himself in the NBA. When Rubio comes over, one of them gets traded.
PagingSR--
Good question about the assistant coaches. I like some of the rumors, especially Wohl, who was a journeyman point guard and had the respect/stature enough to be named a head coach for awhile, albeit back in the 80s. In terms of assistant coaching, I think the priorities are a quality mentor for Flynn (and Rubio if he shows), a low-post defensive tutor for Jefferson, Love and Hollins, and an overall team sense of when to play with pace and when to settle in on the half court.
Wohl would be the point guard mentor--although, unlike the rest of the experts and conventionally wise, I can't imagine why Kahn would prefer to dump Chucky Atkins' relatively measly salary burden instead of keeping him around to advise Flynn. Laimbeer might be a solid low-post tutor. And while I think Rambis is the pace regulator (and probably low-post tutor), I wouldn't mind seeing Reggie Theus over on the bench either: His NBA career and television commentating made him out to be an empty-headed pretty boy, but I was impressed with what he wrung out of a wretched situation in Sacto.
My two favorite assistants last year were Sichting and Cooper. Sichting obvious wasn't going to stick around, and I assume Cooper has also departed. But if he hasn't, he was a guy who looked at statistical analysis seriously and generally seemed to know what he was doing. In other words, a good guy to have around.
Did Cooper officially land anywhere yet, maybe while I was camping out west?
A certain player for the Boston Celtics, not McHale, was named McHale, was drafted 6th by Red
Auerbach in the 1978 class,
one year early with a then-rule which
allowed teams to draft players whose class
hadn't graduated yet.
Red Auerbach called him the greatest
basketball player ever during his career.
High praise considering that Auerbach also
drafted Bill Russell. Larry Bird.
How did that turn out? If Rubio turns out half as good as Larry Bird, Kahn made
Sorry, I accidently posted before proof reading. Basically, if Red Auerbach can take Larry Bird a year early, I don't have a problem with Kahn doing the same with Rubio.
I agree with Britt. If Ricky has to play in Europe against his true wishes, however, is there a risk that he might "rot" over there? Might a bored and resentful employee engage in self-destructive behaviors? Can the Timberwolves have an ongoing hand in his physical and technical development? What does playing "full-time" in Europe entail? I have heard that even star players play fewer minutes per game. If one of Britt's readers could describe the European pro basketball schedule and lifestyle, it would help us compare a season across the pond to...say...a season playing in the Big Ten. How does the quality of coaching in Barcelona compare to the NCAA? If exorbitant buy-outs are going to be a problem in the future, perhaps someone from the U.S. could purchase or build a team in the EuroLeague (not subject to NBA rules) to serve as a farm team for the NBA.
Thanks, Britt. As far as I know no one has left, and Kahn's official line is that all assistants still under contract will be reassigned to other duties if Rambis decides not to keep them as assistants.
Nice work Britt. I can't disagree with any of it.
One of the commenters mentioned this already, but having Rubio here to lose a lot of games might not be the best thing for a guy in his most formative years.
The Wolves are likely to struggle this year, but outside of OKC are set up as well as any team for the future. It's not fun going into a season hoping for a high lottery pick, but I haven't been more excited for the Wolves future since KG/Marbs/Googs. Hopefully there's a different end result, but I finally feel that we've committed to building a perennial championship caliber team.
As you said...let's let it ride.
Once again, Britt shows why he is the best NBA writer in the country. Logic arguments that are hard to poke holes through. Compare this to the crap written by Adrian Wojnarowski on Yahoo today after Rubio signed with Barcelona.
National writers think that Rubio's talent is being wasted overseas and that it's the Wolves fault he's not coming right away. His youth buys us time, his contract buyout was too formidable, but I think Kahn should be lauded for the commitment he's shown the kid. The good-faith effort he put in to try to bring him here now should help in 2 years when the Spanish Assassin wears blue and green at Target Center.
ESPN.com's Page 2 parody-writer Bill Simmons is raking Kahn over coals for his handling of Rubio. Ignorance at its best.
Great assessment on your part.
I loved how you tied Marbury wanting to bolt from Minnesota into your analysis as well. Look where "Starbury" is now.
Nicely done.
Can't disagree with any single thought you put up there, Britt. You made me do a 180, nice work.
I got five bucks says you and Simmons get into a little bs internet feud soon...he's practically begging you to take a shot at his ignorance.
I have a ton of respect for your work, but I can't bring myself to agree with you on Rubio. I'll try to explain.
They are building this franchise around Rubio, yet he won't be here for two years. The thing that gnaws at me is he doesn't want to be here. (BTW, when you mentioned athletes dictating their own terms in the draft, you forgot about Kobe Bryant blowing off the Charlotte Hornets.)
Reading what's come out today, it sounds like they were pretty close to getting Rubio here this year. Kahn's been working on this all summer. Hell, wasn't one reason for the Rambis hire that he's tight with Rubio's agent?
The fact that they put this much into the negotiations, and now they supposedly don't mind a bit that he'll be in Spain for not one but two years? It just doesn't pass the smell test for me. If it's so great for Rubio to "develop" in Spain, why did they work so hard to get him here this year?
When they drafted Rubio and I saw the "you ran over my dog" look in his eyes, I said he would never play for the Timberwolves. Pretty much everyone I've mentioned this to, online or off, mocks me relentlessly for it. Maybe you're all right. But I think if Rubio wanted to be here, he'd be here right now. I'll believe he's a Timberwoof when I see it...
Lazy Perfectionist--
No, I don't believe Rubio wants to be here right now, which is why I spent so much time talking about it. Go back and read the piece. I talked about not blaming him for being bummed and being petulant--he's 18. He played against a bunch of world famous Olympians, none of whom were remotely Timberwolves. On top of that, it was the 5th pick, meaning much less money.
But I still believe Rubio is going to be a great player and I believe the Wolves should be patient and hang on to his rights. Because the bottom line is that Rubio loves basketball--you can tell by the way he plays it--and he loves the NBA. He doesn't love the Wolves, but by the time he comes over and starts playing, two out of three will be enough to prime the pump and then the onrush of the games and the stiff competition will give many more things to cope with than pouting his way out of town. The dude will turn 19 next month. He needs time to mature and get used to the idea that if he is going to play in the NBA, it is going to be in Minnesota for at least three years.
Kahn saying he'll be two years behind Flynn wasn't helpful, but you can't blame Kahn either--he just busted his ass trying to bring Rubio here now, only to be spurned not by Joventut but Rubio personally. Obviously he won't be two years behind Flynn because the Euroleague isn't chopped liver and Rubio won't be languishing. Now does Flynn have a better situation? Sure. But letting a kid play in his home country for the rest of his teenaged years is hardly a huge step backward in his development under these circumstances. It's better than most, if not all, major college ball.
What Kahn needs to realize is that there are a lot of major market teams and media reps who want Rubio in a big market--it's "KG will sign with the Bulls" all over again--and don't even realize they are being condescending. Newsflash: The Wolves hold Rubio's exclusive NBA rights, and will unless Rubio buys out his Barcelona contract and sits for an entire year. Newsflash: Rubio wants the chance to prove himself on basketball's biggest and best stage. if Rubio is the real deal, that's a pretty good position to be in.
But the more Kahn and others in the Wolves organization allow speculation into Rubio's NBA future apart from the Wolves to take hold, the more Rubio himself will think it is possible to keep exerting his preference on the process.
You'll notice that not a single word of my post, written nearly a week ago, needs to be changed. The Wolves continue to have a marvelous asset that should only grow in value. There is *absolutely no need* for them to change their stance vis a vis Rubio as a result of what was confirmed today. And the firmer they stand, the better chance they have of maximizing Rubio's value for their franchise, via either playing time or trade. I'm frankly baffled why others don't see this.
I think too much brainpower is being focused on how this plays out for the team as a concept, and not enough on how this affects the inner dynamic of a functioning group of players and coaches.
We all know that the Flynn-Rubio pairing was a moonshot. We'd love to see it work, like a modern day Earl Monroe and Walt Frazier. But for that to happen, two things are necessary: the guys have to like each other and work without animosity about status and roles, and the coaches need to be able to shape a team game that goes against current lock-step NBA thinking of ones and twos and bigs and smalls and shooters and rebounders, etc.
It's my belief that the Rubio decision is the best possible outcome, because it allows a staggering of point guard skills and personalities, and because it allows Rambis time to figure out how to put together the kind of game and team management that will utilize both Flynn and Rubio.
It is a pipe dream to think that a kid who is younger than anyone else, who doesn't speak English, and who comes in as the golden boy, would not bring some issues of chemistry to the locker room. To the public, he is the star from the day he arrives here. To the team, he is the young guy with the big rep. This team does not have a Kevin Garnett who is the undisputed leader, so there is logically going to be some jockeying and learning. If Rubio had come, and the fans acted as if it was his team, it would have taken a small miracle for him to fit the role to which the fans assigned him. Better to let this team take shape, to see if Flynn can assume a leadership position, and bring Rubio in later as a piece of a more resolved puzzle.
Likewise, Rambis needs to find his sea legs. I have loved it when teams approached the game a little differently from the norm -- the old Willis Reed Knicks, Al Attle's Warriors, Jack Ramsey's Blazers, and even, to some extent the run and gun Phoenix Suns. Right now the NBA is hide-bound. Only Phil Jackson is really tweaking things, and Rambis had a chance to learn under him. Give Rambis a couple of years and we'll know if he has learned enough lessons from Phil to do some inventive and creative coaching.
The upshot of all of this blather on my part is that sometimes it's better to have things sequenced than it is to get everything all at once. Let Rubio mature, let Flynn figure out who he is in the context of the team, let Kahn keep tweaking things, let Big Al see if he can grow into a two way player, let Rambis take a few steps on his own and take a few fliers on coaching ideas.
Patience, my friends. This is the best of all possible Timberwolves worlds unless you want to have training camp fantasies that the team, with Rubio, suddenly would have come together into a championship contender.
I like where this team is going, and I am really getting fond of Kahn's approach. Finally, there is a grown-up in the room.
I think that this news will significantly drop the chances that we ever see Rubio in a Wolves uniform. Not necessarily because Rubio doesn't want to be here, but because Jonny Flynn will win the job in those two years and replacing him with a relative unknown will look like the wrong idea at that time.
However, the NBA landscape might look COMPLETELY different in 2011 than it does now, and it's very hard to say what superstar-caliber talents might be had in a trade that included Ricky Rubio (or Jonny Flynn). It shouldn't be hard for Wolves' fans to remember what Boston did only two years ago.
On the night of the 2011 NBA Draft, Al Jefferson will be 26 years old. Kevin Love will be 22. Jonny Flynn will be 22. The Wolves will likely have added a very high draft choice in the hyped class of 2010, as well as Nikola Pekovic from the '08 Draft. I wouldn't be surprised if Kahn defers the later 1st Rounders another year in 2010, the way he did in '09, and holds multiple picks in 2011.
With all of those assets, the Wolves start to look like a contender in whatever big trade talks are going on at that time. If Utah implodes after Boozer leaves, do they rebuild and shop Deron Williams? If D-Wade re-signs with Miami in 2010, but nothing changes in their dysfunctional front office, would they rather rebuild with Ricky Rubio?
I would have rather had Rubio come here, this year. But, the biggest reason for that is because I like going to Wolves games and they would've been a lot more exciting--even if the loss count was exactly the same--with such a recognizable and popular young player. As an 18-year old, I don't think Rubio would be much of an impact player. And if he continued to be "just ok" as a 19-year old, people would start calling him a bust and who knows what would happen (besides the plummeting of his trade value). So, staying in Europe was probably a wise financial decision for Ricky and it might be the best one for the Wolves.
Good article Britt.
I think you do not cover a few concerns, one possibility with Rubio remaining in Spain.
What if it is truly indicative of his desire to be in Minnesota?
He initially accepted a deal to a MN buyout, only to back out of it. Does that not detract his value to the Wolves?
If Flynn becomes a legit starting PG, how will it increase Rubio's value? If he plays well enough not only would you be stepping on toes of a valuable starter, Rubio will not be all the more eager to play as a back up. Granted, I've been concerned about this all along even if He played in MN.
What concerns me most is the first issue. In which case, the Wolves may end up on the short end of things. Teams will under pay for a player who does not want to be on your team.
Rob
Britt, come on: I read your article. I get that Rubio's going on 19 and that he'll (most likely) do some growing up over the next two years. I just don't think he wants to be here, and I don't think his family wants him here. And ultimately, I don't think he will be here.
Not blaming Kahn for drafting him -- he had to go for the value -- or for anything else, really. I just believe the 'Wolves are putting on a bit of a front here. Too much has been done to accommodate Rubio for me to believe that they're truly OK with what's transpired over the past few days.
So the 'Wolves have his rights for three years? Could he play in Europe a third year and then be an NBA FA? Is that how it works?
Technically, now they have his rights for seven years because FC Barcelona gave him a six-year deal. Unless he buys out his own contract and sits out a year, the Wolves hold his rights.
Lazy Perfectionist-
The Wolves have Rubio's NBA rights forever, not just for three years. The only way the Wolves lose these rights is if Ricky is not under contract for any professional basketball team for an entire year.
This, while technically possible, is so far from the realm of "probable" that it's safe to discount. Somebody who loves playing ball as much as Rubio would almost certainly not stunt his own development and risk losing so much renown, not to mention salary, particularly at his young age.
Hope that clears things up.
If Jonny Flynn is becoming an established starter and potential star in two years, then the Wolves have an embarrassment of riches. But I repeat, if anything, including that, causes the front office to get less than value for him after everything that has occurred, I'll be truly baffled.
It continues to bewilder me that the smug assumption among a lot of people around the NBA is that the Wolves are somehow in a tough position. Whether Rubio wants to be here or not should not be that influential in how the Wolves regard him. Unless Rubio wants to be a star in Europe only, he plays for the Wolves. The more unprofessional he is about it, the more he cuts off his nose to spite his face. That kind of snit is far more likely with a teenager jilted out of his dream of playing for a big city team and suffering possible financial consequences to boot. Give him two years in Spain, sit tight and tell all comers Rubio's value goes up with time, not down. Because it should.
It has been reported that if Rubio waits three years after his draft year (still playing in Barcelona most likely) he will no longer be covered by the rookie pay schedule and will be allowed to accept a much larger contract. This could make him much more money over his career. This seems to conspire to have him be overseas for 3, not 2, more years. What do you think about that?
Whether Rubio comes over in 2 or 3 years is really out of the Wolves hands.
But to Britt's point, the kid loves basketball and wants to play in the NBA. My own belief is that Rubio begins to lament his decision to delay his arrival in the NBA after the tournament in Poland.
Even a youthful, petulant kid begins to have second thoughts when he realizes that he will doing little more than what he has been doing since he was age 14.
It does vex me how Rubio plan to develop as a player when competing with essentially the same level of talent he has played against for four years.
It seems that sports teams in any country pay more to the athlete than they do in America. Sports unites countries and this is a concept that the United States has failed to recognize. casino en ligne
Man I am sick of this guy. He is always in the news for the wrong reasons.
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Good article Britt.
I think you do not cover a few concerns, one possibility with Rubio remaining in Spain. ventes privees
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