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If we've learned anything over the last few NBA postseasons, it's that every new series wipes the slate clean. Thus the Cavs, who were so dominant in sweeping the first two rounds, and looked to be easy bets to vanquish a Magic ballclub that had fallen behind both the dysfunctional Sixers and the injury-depleted Celtics, were thoroughly outplayed, putting together what almost could have been a six-game sweep were it not for LeBron's last-second heave in Game Two and 4th quarter do-everything in Game Five. As someone who called for the Cavs to take it in 5, and hesitated only in wondering if I should call another sweep, I was flabbergasted. I figured Cleveland's perimeter defense--the NBA's best during the regular season--would close off the outside game and that Z Ilgauskus, Ben Wallace and Joe Smith would foul Dwight Howard and his Shaq-like clanking proclivity at the charity stripe, alternating with double-downs in the paint, to deter inside dominance. But this obviously was not the Magic of the two previous series. Howard was a giant awakened by his own awkward complaints about not getting touches, and Orlando's rapid, selfless ball movement exposed the lack of height and quickness of Cleveland's perimeter schemes, which simply couldn't react quickly enough--not to mention the pick and roll problems.

I should note that others weren't so dense. Charles Barkley notably picked Orlando, a bold, prescient choice that has elevated his stature--rarely have I found Barkley to be so proactively smart. But Barkley aside, there were intelligent folks who noted that Orlando has been a matchup problem for Cleveland for a few years now. Having seen every playoff game, I was pretty convinced LeBron wouldn't let this ring get away. And, as the stats indicate, he did nearly everything in his power to advance. But, as the TNT commentators have noted, Coach of the Year Mike Brown probably erred by not utilizing LeBron's defense more specifically and compelling him to shut down Lewis or Turkoglu instead of roaming on Rafer Alston. That's on Brown, however. My biggest complaint with LeBron himself was how often he tried to do everything himself in the half-court, especially at the ends of quarters and when there were 12 seconds or less on the clock. The "King" had a royalty complex, in that he didn't trust his teammates enough--with the exception of Delonte West and occasionally Z--to give them the rock and not get it back. That's ironic, considering the heat he took last year for dishing off on a game-ender with Donyell Marshall.

In any event, learning when to elevate your teammates with faith and when to grab the game by the throat is a delicate business that apparently requires a fair amount of maturity. LeBron's perpetual rival, Kobe, had problems calibrating the same thing in the post-Shaq years. The marvelous Denver series, which was much more competitive and evenly matched regardless of what the scores indicated, was Kobe's best-yet performance in terms of subtle leadership, and, combined with his lights-out free throw shooting, reopens the argument over who is the best player in the game. I'd still say LeBron, but after these conference finals, the Kobe boosters have a compelling case.

Back to the slate wiped clean theme. Wasn't motivation supposed to be the Lakers' bugaboo? Wasn't Andrew Bynum supposed to be the recalcitrant X factor. Turns out the Lakers were gritty--the most consistent of any of the four playoff teams in the conference finals--and Lamar Odom, aching back and all, was the X factor who crossed the Nuggets out of the playoffs. This is what I love about the NBA, by the way. it is a grueling postseason, fulls of last-second chills and spills and controversy, but underdogs are eventually exposed. Wild card teams have won football's Super Bowl a number of times now, and in hockey you could pretty much scramble the seeds and prognosticate as accurately--the Penguins are in the Finals as a 4 seed this year, and that's not too unusual. But in hoops, the what passes for an underdog is the 59-win Magic, who took 7 games to topple last year's champ and 6 to expose the Cavs deficiencies. Like the Celts of a year ago, and Lakers this year, this has been no joyride, with no sweeps and a fair quantity of backbiting and controversy. And like everyone else with half a brain who has been watching, I applaud the way Stan Van Gundy has stood up to the adversity he has encountered from pundits and players alike--between Stan's coaching performance and brother Jeff''s best-in-the-game sideline commentary, the Van Gundy's may have put together the brainiest hoops parlay by a single family in NBA history. (Rivalled by the Van Arsdales and Van Brenda Koffs--what is it with these Vans anyway?)

But back to Stan Van Gundy for a minute. I always admired the job he did in Miami before Pat Riley's ego demanded the championship spotlight SVG had labored to stage, and really appreciated the job he did in Orlando during regular season. I regret not coming to his defense more forcefully when he was getting ripped. But I was too busy riding that Cavs bandwagon over a cliff.

The Magic are a dangerous team now, with the best inside-outside half-court offense since the Rockets won a pair of rings with the Dream being surrounded by Horry, Elie, Jet, and Cassell. Defensively, Mickael Pietrus was magnificent (at both ends of the court, actually), and SVG rotated his large forwards (Lewis and Hedo are neither "power" nor "small" forwards) well enough to prevent too many open looks from either the wings or the baselines. The uber-capable rook, Courtney Lee, worked in excellent tandem with Pietrus, and even Rafer Alston chipped in a little bit.

So why am I picking against Orlando for the third series in a row?

Because with Bynum and Gasol and Ariza and Odom and Walton, the Lakers have five defenders 6-8 or larger who can bottle up Howard down low and get out on the large forwards outside. I'd be willing to bet that Lewis, Turkoglu, Pietrus, and Alston won't combine to make 43% of their treys against LA, as they did versus the Cavs. Even if their ball movement remains superb, the Lakers have size and quickness to counter, and besides, 43% from distance from four guys simply can't last long. Meanwhile, Howard fouled out of three games against Cleveland; what do you think the odds of him being in foul trouble, or becoming more passive in the paint, will be against the Lakers? Gortat is a better-than-average backup, but this is where I'd play Bynum, who is bigger, quicker and more talented. I'd also give a lot more minutes to the underrated Luke Walton, who doubles down on a big with intelligence and tenacity, knows when to foul and how to foul, and is a great passer on offense. I'd play a lot of Jordan Farmar on Alston--he's quicker than Derek Fisher and is beginning to rediscover his game. In fact I'd take my chances on an Alston-Farmar matchup even-up.

Trevor Ariza is the best option for shutting down Lewis, with Kobe on Hedo. That's right, the Lakers need to go smaller versus Howard--Gasol is slow but surely learning what the postseason is all about, and even Josh Powell would be a decent guy to throw into the breach for a short period of time to save Gasol and Bynum from foul trouble. At the other end, Pietrus will get another star turn guarding Kobe, but Kobe has wiles in the half-court Lebron hasn't learned, and will use Pietrus's aggression against him more effectively--and hit those free throws when he draws the fouls. Odom needs to concentrate on his own inside-outside play--take what has become a pretty accurate three-pointer when it's available, but otherwise pounding the weakside glass, when his quickness will come in handy and his lack of toughness will be less of a factor going against Lewis and Turkoglu than it was against K-Mart and Melo and Denver's rugged crew.

Or not. Having called Denver as well as Cleveland to be in these Finals, I'm obviously in no position to be smug about these statements. I was feeling that way beforehand, having determined that my first two rounds of prognostication would have had me atop True Hoop's leader board--then karma bit  Now I'll just humbly opine that, with the slate wiped clean once more, but with the memory of last year's Finals collapse still in their memories, the Lakers, and especially Kobe, are ready to put this eminently worthy opponent from Orlando down. It won't be easy, probably six or seven. And it won't be with LeBron as the marquee opponent (despite the best efforts of the refs, whose favoritism toward the Cavs in the conference finals deserves its own separate column). But anyone who watched Howard the past week knows that Superman is a more than adequate replacement. On paper, and from recent experience, this shapes up as a great series. But, as he was at the Olympics last summer, Kobe will be the crunchtime difference when it matters most, and will earn a ring without Shaq as his enabler.

Lakers in 6.