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Now that the legislative circus has pulled up stakes for another year, it's delightful to get back to hoops. There is plenty to talk about, the conference finals, the Wolves' GM tomfoolery, the draft lottery, etc. And I'm willing to engage any and all comers on all that stuff in the commentary section. But with the Western Conference Finals set to start in just a few hours (and it will be less than that by the time I post), let's make the Nuggets-Lakers preview the priority today.

1. Hunch Over Knowledge

The few series previews I've gleaned thus far pretty much line up with my feeling, which is hardly surprising, because what else can you say about this series except that it all boils down to whether or not the Lakers can get back on track and play with the focus, efficiency and trust they exhibited during their peak periods of the regular season. If they can, they will probably beat Denver in 6 or 7. If they can't, they could get wiped in as few as 5.

One of the few things we know is that the Nuggets will come to play. Now is as good a time as any for my personal apology to coach George Karl, whom I have disparaged for the past two or three years, and who has created a unit that scraps at both ends and features a potentially combustible roster playing unselfishly. It's funny what different coaches require in terms of their own comfort zone in order to thrive by engaging in a manner that motivates their ballclub. For Karl, quite clearly, it is confident, commanding leadership from his point guard. He had it in Seattle with Gary Payton and he had it in Milwaukee with Sam Cassell--two of the most internally arrogant players ever to don an NBA uni. Chauncey Billups may not be as loud-mouthed as Karl's previous floor generals, but there is no question that on a team loaded with potentially chuckle-headed personalities like Birdman, JR Smith, K-Mart, and even Melo, Billups has been both the glue and the balm. I felt before the playoffs began that he belonged in the top eight of the MVP voting, behind LeBron, Howard, Wade, Kobe, Paul, Nowitzki and Duncan, and I think I'd bump him up the 6th now.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, they have no matchup for Billups. Derek Fisher is old, declining in status from "wily vet" to "defensive albatross" status with alarming rapidity. That's especially tough because he's not on the floor for his playmaking--he's seventh on the team in assists during the playoffs, behind not only every other starter, but Jordan Farmar and Luke Walton. Backup point Shannon Brown has played a grand total of 1110 minutes in his entire career--less than Billups has played in the 4th quarter of playoff games. Coach Phil Jackson is going to have to figure out how to prevent Billups from maintaining a comfort level that has him shooting 49.2% for the playoffs, including a sizzling 54.1% from behind the arc. Complicating the process is that Denver's backup, Anthony Carter, is better than anybody LA has at the point. Jackson has gone with Farmar and Brown, but I might put Sasha Vujacic on Billups because of his size and natural aggressiveness, adn because Vujacic is in a huge shooting slump and providing him with a defensive-oriented assignment might reduce the pressure on him to contribute via his shot. In any case, a huge matchup advantage for Denver.

With the Nene, K-Mart and the Birdman, Denver is also capable of matching up with the Lakers' length down low. Most of the attention is appropriately on Andrew Bynum, the inconsistent manchild who is the slam-dunk X factor for LA--if he shines, their odds of victory skyrocket. But I  also think the way Pau Gasol responds to the pounding he'll take from Denver's bigs will be nearly as important. Martin loves to get in the heads of his opponents, and Gasol is a prime candidate for frustration. Then there is Lamar Odom, whose post-season play thus far this year hasn't disspelled the questions surrounding his softness and heart left over from the Celtics mangling in last season's Finals. A mentally tough, rigorously athletic Odom would go a long way toward the Lakers having options to both defend the likes of Melo and JR Smith and Linus Kleiza and forcing them into defensive mismatches. But that requires Odom to play hard, play smart and play tough, and right now even two out of three is not a sure thing.

So, where's the good news for the Lakers in this series? Kobe, Kobe, and Kobe. Oh, and maybe the smart, gritty performance they can expect from swingmen Trevor Ariza and Luke Walton, who will probably be the primary options on Melo. But unless Gasol has an entire series like his finest games versus Houston and Utah, Odom undergoes a personality transplant, and either Fisher, Farmar or Vujacic get hot from the outside, Kobe is going to have to become much more selfish--meaning a lot of dribble penetration--for the Lakers to pull this out. You'll notice I didn't put Bynum on that list of intangibles. That's because I expect ongoing inconsistency. The Lakers should hope Bynum shows up at home, because that would pretty much ensure wins, as Denver is a mediocre road club. But regardless of what Bynum does, Kobe will have to average *at least* 30 points a game for the Lakers to return to the NBA Finals.

What we are really saying, then, is how great can Kobe Bryant be here? If this were the Black Mamba Kobe of prime-times past, or the LeBron of this year, I'd pick the Lakers. And I've picked the Lakers, and the Nuggets, about two or three times apiece as I've been writing this. About the only thing I'm confident about is that if it goes 7 games, the Lakers win. But if Denver has a chance to close it out at home in 6, it would be very hard to pick against them. And what that means is that LA probably can't afford to lose either of the first two home games.

Unfortunately, we also have to talk about the refs. The NBA would love a Kobe-LeBron Finals, adding momentum to star-centric calls Kobe already receives. Denver has a cast of hotheads, who could start to lose it if the whistles appear to be working against them. Thus, the refs are definitely an X factor of their own here.

My gut says you can't pick against a superstar on a mission, and that Kobe has enough to get this done in 7. But my head looks at the matchups, the depth, the personalities, and the current momentum, and that is a hell of a lot for one superstar to overcome.

Denver in 6.