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_{Photo copyright 2009 NBAE (Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images)}

Folks--

My apologies for the lengthy absence. I want to keep my hand in regarding NBA stuff and--if and when the Wolves ever hire a new GM-- the home team. But I am fortunately very busy with paying work and now that this is a voluntary endeavor (until I figure out my next move) posting here keeps getting moved to the back of the line. But now that the second round of the West is merely hours away, it's time to, literally, put up or shut up. And I regard these two second-round series as too exciting for me not to weigh in.

First, a quick recap of round one. On the basis of wins and losses, I've only missed my prediction on one of the series thus far, pending today's Miami-Atlanta finale, but it's one thing to predict the call, another to fathom the flavor of what will ensue. For example, I absolutely nailed the Orlando-Philly series--it's like I saw the six games ahead of time--but totally underestimated how much trouble the Celts were in versus Chicago. Ironic, as a longtime KG booster, that I didn't give more credence to his absence. Tell me folks, doesn't the Paul Pierce of the Bulls series look awfully familiar, like the pre-KG Pierce who was a very good, occasionally great player who didn't defend all that well? For that matter, remember how claustrophobic Boston could make an opponent in the half-court with there pressuring rotations? Now we realize the Celts could sell out on tight coverage because Garnett was around to deter mistakes at all four corners of the paint. Name me one Celtic who distinguished himself via his defense versus Chicago, and then recall what kind of D was played in last year's championship march. The idea that KG isn't first among equals in that Big 3 is now revealed to be a joke.

The calls of the Cavs in 4 and the Lakers in 5 were accurate and conventional. I also hit the game count in the Orlando-Philly and Houston-Portland series--not too shabby. And I called the winner and was off only a game on Denver-New Orleans.

But now for the comeuppance. Along with misreading Chicago-Boston, I overrated the maturity of the Atlanta Hawks--meaning I thought they wouldn't act like clueless, undisciplined jerks. No NBA team in these playoffs gets less out of its core talent than Atlanta and for that you have to blame Mike Bibby, the supposed floor general, and Josh Smith, the emotional train wreck. It wasn't just the ill-timed, stupid dunk-attempt shenanigans, but the wretched shot selection, indifferent defense, and sporadic effort demonstrated by Smith that was so aggravating. I honestly hope the Hawks lose this afternoon, although I don't expect it. No matter: Smith and company will get their just desserts in the Cleveland series.

Then there was the totally blown call of the San Antonio-Dallas matchup. I don't have much to add to the prevailing commentary that the Spurs simply are too old and too thin to survive when one of their big three is out and another is hobbled. It was shocking how little Popovich felt he could rely on anyone but Parker and Duncan--Roger Mason and Drew Gooden were among the disappeared.  (Check out Bill Simmons' column of last week for his very incisive comments disparaging Gooden's game as a fit for San Antonio.  Scola will haunt the franchise for at least another 3 years.) But as we all perform the autopsy on the Spurs, the Mavs are getting short shrift for superbly played series, especially from erstwhile doghouse denizens like Josh Howard and Erick Dampier, who set the tone defensively and played like their vintage selves from three years ago. Which brings us to the second round and a pair of beguiling matchups in the West.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets

Both ballclubs are peaking at the perfect time, both have rosters containing playoff-tested veterans with something to prove, both sport scorers capable of getting 50 or 60 if on a roll and both began the season having no business imaging they'd get this far. Looking at the matchups, this is going to be a beaut, beginning with Josh Howard on Melo Anthony and Jason Kidd on Chauncey Billups. If those two Mavs can disrupt the twin engines of Denver's offense enough to force chuckleheads like JR Smith and Birdman Anderson--both incredible talents with ten-cent heads--into crucial roles, Dallas has a great chance of springing the upset.

At the other end, there is the rugged K-Mart on a Dirk Nowitzski who gets rattled by physicality. What the refs do and don't allow will be vital to the tone and tenor of play, and if they keep their whistles quiet on the borderline calls when Dirk drives, then Jet Terry is going to have to have an amazing series for the Mavs to triumph. The Terry-Dahnty Jones matchup is another compelling lockdown that I expect Terry to surmount. And in the middle you've got the rejuvenated Dampier against the emerging Nene--a tussle that could go either way.

I see Denver's depth eventually making the difference. If George Karl has any sense, Anthony Carter will always be around to negate the energy Barea brings off the bench, and the Birdman will force Brandon Bass a little further out on his midrange. Denver's second unit can be feast or famine, but they're a force to be recknoned with going into every game and Dallas really only likes to go 7 deep (8th man Antoine Wright averaged 13 minutes versus San Antonio). But if Kidd and Howard find ways to stymie Billups and Melo and Dirk gets K-Mart and Nene in foul trouble, Dallas springs the upset. But those things won't happen often enough.

Denver is 6 or 7

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets

I really like the way Houston is playing since jettisoning McGrady and Alston: They exposed Portland's no-paint offense and moved the ball faster than the Blazers could cover at the other end of the court.  With every game I've seen San Antonio and Houston play, I'm stunned that the Spurs would ever part with Luis Scola, who is a San Antonio prototype and a tremendous grinder. The face of the Houston franchise is Yao but the ballclub's identity lies with the sweat-equity trio of Scola, Battier and Artest. Throw in underrated coach Rick Adelman and the squirrelly duo of Brooks and Lowry and the Rockets have become one of my favorite teams this year--I'm even softening up on Yao.

Houston would be a serious threat to upset the Lakers if Ron-Ron could regulate his shot-shots, but unfortunately I don't think that's going to happen.  There is no rhyme or reason for when Artest will jack up a trey with his team up a dozen in the third quarter and there's 15 seconds on the clock, or when he'll take it to the hole and earn the whistle and promote the ball movement that Scola and Battier (and Yao and Brooks) engender. The Rockets survived the shot-happy Artest because Portland didn't have a low post threat to expose (and tire) Yao. But the Lakers obviously do. 

Artest also made a mistake claiming Brandon Roy was his toughest matchup as a defender. There's a superstar in L.A. probably receptive to being baited into a quiet fury over such things. Houston is one of the rare NBA teams that have decent matchups for the Lakers' uber-talented roster, but providing extra incentive for Kobe is classic Artest stupidity. Don't be surprised if Artest has a horrible shooting percentage when this series is over--Kobe will hound him on the perimeter and Bynum, Gasol and company have the length and smarts to deter his snail-like penetration to the hoop. That means Yao will have to get Bynum in foul trouble (entirely possible) and team with Scola in preventing Gasol from scoring inside (very unlikely). It means Houston will have to win the point guard matchup with their kids and that the confidence of Von Wafer must continue to flourish on the big stage of the postseason. Houston's bench was key in its wins over Portland, especially the go-go trio of Wafer, Lowry and the vastly underrated Carl Landry, a tremendous glue guy who, with Chuck Hayes, gives Houston great depth down low in the frontcourt.

The reality check is looking at the Lakers' roster. This ballclub is incredibly flexible. One of the more intriguing matchups is Battier versus Trevor Ariza, both of them defensive specialists smart enough to roam without getting burned too often, and smart enough to burn opponents who roam on them. If Yao can get the Lakers sagging and Ariza doesn't stay home, Battier has a knack for burying the key trey. But if Bynum holds his own against Yao, that puts Scola on Gasol and forces Battier on to Odom on occasion--a much different framework all the way around. Or Phil Jackson can plug in Luke Walton for Ariza, or throw Kobe at the three with Vujacic at the off guard. There are scenarios where the Lakers can run Houston right off the court, or at the very least wear their bangers and Yao down enough that they lack the quickness to defend in the half-court. And then there's Kobe, ready to remind Artest that Brandon Roy is a picnic compared to the Black Mamba.

Los Angeles in 6.

 Over in the East, the series aren't nearly as compelling. I'm not going to bother breaking down Atlanta/Miami and Cleveland. How motivated or overconfident are the Cavs? That's all we really need to know to decide whether this thing is over in 4, 5 or 6 games. Neither the Hawks nor the Heat can seriously compete here. What the hell, in tribute to LeBron, let's say...

Cleveland in 4

Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics

Neither team distinguished itself in the first round. Yes, the Celts-Bulls series was one for the ages, but only for the total parity of the opponents and their respective ability to drain big shots with the clock winding down--and, concurrently, the inability of defenses to stop them. Quite obviously, if KG is still out, Boston has no real answer for Dwight Howard. Kendrick Perkins will be in second quarter foul trouble a majority of the games, and that Big Baby nickname of Glen Davis's will have particilar resonance as Howard asserts himself down low.

On the other hand, can Orlando defend anybody out on the perimeter? The absence of Courtney Lee puts even more of an onus on Mickael Pietrus to play tough D, because you know we won't see it from Hedo or Rashard, and Rafer Alston is going to have his own can of whup-ass handed to him by Rondo. Then there is that ethereal "team chemistry" thing: Whatever one thinks of Boston's shortcomings, they hang tough together. The vibe out of Orlando is always about whether Howard is mean enough, or whether the players respect coach Stan Van Gundy, or the health of the bookend forwards Turkoglu and Lewis.

The Magic "should" win this series. The Celts have no real matchup for the game's most dominant big man, Boston is (or should be) exhausted from its marathon with the Bulls, provoking enormous minutes from aging vets Pierce and Ray Allen, and, as mentioned, Boston's once-vaunted defense lacks the glue of KG's passion and quickness. If Orlando gets its inside-outside offense in rhythm, they will score plenty. Of course the Celtics are going to score plenty too. Whichever one of the bookend forwards guards Baby Davis is due to get roasted, provided he gets enough touches after Allen and/or Pierce feast on the Magic's specious perimeter coverage.

I have no firm take here. I can make plausible scenarios for Orlando and Boston, in five games or seven. I'm going to say Boston has enough pride and intensity left to outlast a Magic squad that has a perplexing lassitude. Either way, its just a competition for sacrificial lamb status in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Boston in 7.