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On the Ball
Eastern Conference Finals Preview
If the Orlando Magic happen to defeat the Cleveland Cavs in this series, I pledge to never again criticize Charles Barkley, who improbably is picking the Disneyland crew. Frankly, I'm baffled as to how that would happen. And Orlando's performance in the first two series--their Philly and no-KG Boston matchups being arguably as weak as Detroit-Atlanta combo--only makes me think this thing is over in anywhere between 4 and 6 games.
How does Cleveland triumph? Let us count the ways.
Three Point Defense
Mike Brown is a Gregg Popovich protege and Pops pioneered staunch perimeter defense as the key to NBA success. Brown listened: Cleveland's 3-pt D was head and shoulders the best in the NBA this season at 33.3%--the Magic were a distant second at 34.2%. For a team that lives and dies on inside-outside offense, that's not a good sign.
A Better-Than Advertised Supporting Cast
Everyone thinks the Cavs are a one-man team, or perhaps deign to throw Mo Williams into the mix. But this is a fundamentally sound squad that finished in the top 5 in the league in rebounding differential, blocks differential, steals differential. Their turnover differential is -1.12 (they generate more than one more turnover per game than they commit), good for 6th in the league. Orlando is 22nd, commiting more turnovers than their defense creates.
A Hungry Superstar
If I have to explain this one to you, you haven't been watching.
A Decent Bunch to Throw Against Howard
Z Ilgauskus is at least two inches taller than Dwight Howard. Joe Smith is a savvy vet who knows who to joust in the paint. Ben Wallace is long past his prime but is good for physicality and fouls. And Anderson Varejao will make Howard run the floor in transition.
Cleveland in 5.
3 Reader Comments
Just to be the contrarian, I don't think Cleveland's romps over weak squads are indicative of their ability, though they are more than capable of winning it all. Orlando matches up MUCH better against this squad than anyone they've faced.
Orlando's height-enhanced lineup is going to make things difficult for the Cavs' wing players. Lebron will have to get around a long defender, only to be met by Howard. Those long players can also close out on shooters fast, taking away some high-percentage three-point looks created by Lebron. I said it last series, but solid defense by Pietrus can get at least one extra win for the Magic.
Also, while the Williams-Alston matchup favors Cleveland, it's not as lopsided as you'd think - Rafer can use his craftiness to create open shots (and turnovers) when he's able to freelance and play his game.
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