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On the Ball
The Three-Pointer: Upset in Utah and Love Hurts
Photo copyright 2009 NBAE (Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images)
Game #76, Road Game #38:, Utah 102, Minnesota 103
Game #77, Home Game #39: Minnesota 87, Denver 110
Season Record: 22-55
1. The Year's Last Highlight?
You won't find a bigger jaw-dropper in this 2008-09 NBA season than the vic the lowly Wolves snuck out of Utah with on Friday night. The Jazz hadn't lost at home since January, were something like 55-7 over the past 62 inside the Delta Center, and were playing with mostly their full complement of players. The Wolves have been mostly rotten since losing Jefferson and increasing apt to roll over and play dead when even marginally superior teams get the jump on them early. The Jazz jumped on them early--15 point lead in the first half--and were still up 4 with less than 3 minutes to play. It was a game they desperately had to have, if only because the playoff seeds are drawing nigh and they are so good at home they need home court advantage. To think that a home court loss--to the Wolves, no less--might well send them on the road in the first round of the playoffs is more than unlikely--it's bizarre.
I can give you the hindsight justifications, all the reasons I would have discounted before the game in the belief the Jazz would win anyway. Utah has not had good endurance this season, going a horrible 3-15--well, make that 3-16 now--on the tail end of back-to-backs. What's more, they were playing their 4th game in 5 days. They lost CJ Miles to a hand injury for the entire second half. Perhaps most significantly, flinty head coach Jerry Sloan was off at his brother's funeral, leaving longtime lieutenant Phil Johnson in charge. Some guys are good only at being second in command. Jimmy Rodgers of the Wolves was like that. Rodgers bagged rings as an assistant for both the Celts and the Bulls but, against stiff competition, was arguably the worst head coach in Wolves history. He'd have postgame press conferences where he really would say things like, "Well, I know Sacramento has a 14-37 record, but nobody can tell me we weren't beaten by a pretty good ballclub out there tonight." Johnson said something almost as idiotic after Friday's upset. He said that Minnesota was playing free and easy, without pressure, while all the pressure was on Utah. First of all, if you're feeling pressure to beat these Timberwolves at home in Utah, you're already psyching yourself out waaay too much. Besides, by Johnson's measures, the Wolves should have been playing free and easy for months now. They 've got absolutely nothing to lose and I haven't exactly noticed it being a boon.
Is anybody surprised that with Sloan back in command the Jazz ran roughshod over the Hornets, in New Orleans, no less, going up 66-39 at the half before winning 108-94 Sunday evening?
Let's also give credit to the Wolves Friday night, because they won that game at least as much as the Jazz lost it. The most recent injuries, to Randy Foye and Craig Smith, have changed the dynamic of the team's half-court offense. Neither Foye nor Smith are exactly catch-and-shoot guys; they find the rhythm on the shot more capably when they can put the ball on the floor, or feint their man. Among Friday's five starters--Kevin Ollie and Mike Miller in the backcourt and center Kevin Love flanked by Rodney Carney and Ryan Gomes--Miller is the only real dribbler, and can get involved in a snap-passing pace if others are so inclined. Most certainly Gomes and Carney, but perhaps the entire quintet are better catching-and-shooting than creating off the dribble. This creates a different kind of ball-movement dynamic. Minnesota committed more than twice as many turnovers (21 to 10) and got to the free throw line just a smidge more than half as many times as Utah (15 to 29) yet still won the game, largely because 27 assists fueled 53.3% shooting that included 11 made treys (in 26 attempts) and the turnover differential was made up by Minnesota's plus +14 edge on the boards.
The offensive stars of the game were Gomes early and Carney late. Utah's frontcourt generally thrives on squirrelly mismatches, but they met their mismatch in Gomes, who took Carlos Boozer out on the perimeter and posted up Andrei Kirilenko. Gomes almost single-handedly kept Minnesota in the game early, scoring 15 of the team's first 26 points. Later on the Jazz were just gassed, which is about the only way this Wolves team musters 17 fast break points in a game (they average just over 10). During the third quarter spurt that got them back to a seesaw contest and then the final period push that eventually won it, a quick pace and dogged effort on the boards exploited Utah's lack of energy. Love beat Okur down the floor, forcing Korver to slide over and giving Carney a clear look at a trey. In fact, Utah's disinclination to put a body on Carney anywhere out on the perimeter testified to their empty tanks. After shooting 2-6 FG for 7 points in the first half, Carney was 6-7 FG for 18 points in the second. Not only for this game, but for the past month or so, the enduring image of Wolves success has been drive and kicks to an open Carney--everybody on this team is doing it. Four three-point dimes from four different players (Ollie, Miller, Telfair and Gomes) turned a 58-50 deficit into a 60-58 nailbiter in the third and a 95-91 deficit into a 101-98 lead late in the 4th. But the play that best indicated that perhaps the Wolves were charmed to win this one was a pretty left-handed put-back by Carney after the carom had nearly sailed over his head.
The decision on whether or not to retain Carney's services seems fraught with risk both ways. The leaper began the season as an afterthought, helped trigger the Wolves' January surge, made a significant dip where he couldn't score and didn't defend all that well, and has gone on another scoring burst over the past three or four weeks. The argument in favor is that he is one of Minnesota's precious few athletes, he won't be very expensive--probably less than the $2.5 million per season that Smith and Telfair signed for in the last offseason--and he can expand the defenses in ways that McCants/Miller couldn't/didn't this season.
The argument against, which is the way I lean, is that Carney is hopefully redundant with a healthy Corey Brewer, a player the Wolves invested a lottery pick in two seasons ago. The abiding caution also is that you can get enamored with players playing on a lousy team in the junktime of spring, when a little hustle and a hot hand is easily overblown. Remember, a year ago at this time, a very similar "keep him or not?" debate was revolving around Kirk Snyder, then-recently acquired for Gerald Green in the Houston deal. Snyder ultimately was not re-signed, and if you'll recall had some anger control issues with refs and opponents. Well, maybe it was more body chemistry than competition and/or immaturity. Snyder was recently arrested for assaulting a sleeping neighbor in the middle of the night without provocation. Then he allegedly attacked another man while in jail, and has been sent for a psychiatric evaluation and placed on suicide watch.
Obviously, the comparison between Snyder and Carney begins and ends with both players forcing the Wolves' brass to consider retaining them due to a noteworthy stretch run. I invoke the Snyder saga because he really was a bit player, whose fall into obscurity has been broken by these scary outbursts rather than his hoops acumen. It's entirely possible that Carney likewise will disappear, and become little more than a quick footnote in franchise history. However, as with Snyder last year, he's logged a few performances that give one pause in forsaking due diligence and prompting another check to see if indeed he merits a lower-rung roster spot. I guess my biggest problem with Carney is that he hasn't used his athleticism to establish himself as a lock-down defender, a Thabo Sefolosha type. His defense seems to fall off when his shot is going down--it's as if he wants his identity to be as a long-range marksman and transition dunker, rather than a guy who can give opposing swingmen fits. Brewer, on the other hand, does seem to embrace defense, and was a guy the Wolves' brass was obviously very high on. You don't want too many Brewer/Carney types--long and lithe without a very good handle--on your roster. Keeping Craig Smith was already one guy too many.
2. The Sunday blowout comes and goes
Not much to say about Sunday's 23-point loss to Denver. Kevin Love was waylaid by the flu, leaving Gomes as the only Timberwolf now to have performed in every game. Like Utah on Friday, the Nuggets were coming off a back to back, and this one was on the road after a West Coast game. But Denver seems like a preternaturally happy team right now, adding more fuel to the bonfire I'm building to have Chauncey Billups considered with the golden quartet of LeBron, Howard, Wade and Kobe for the MVP award. Rarely if ever has one player made so much difference to two ballclubs: Remember it was Denver who was supposed to be clawing for a final playoff spot and Detroit who had a fighter's chance at a second seed at the beginning of the season. Those teams exchanged prospects and personalities almost solely on the basis of Billups being dealt from one to the other just a few games into the season. Yesterday, Melo Anthony actually lived up to his first name in a positive sense, exuding a sunny, generous vibe. Even the chuckleheaded JR Smith seems to have grown up and deigns to share the ball on occasion.
On the Wolves end, same o same o. Bassy Telfair took twice as many shots as Mike Miller, and Miller dished twice as many assists as Telfair. Bobby Brown continues to be hellacious in garbage time. The other nonentity pickup in the null set trade with Sacto, Shelden Williams, has strung together a couple of good games in a row and may even get to play in the United States somewhere next season, albeit probably not in the NBA. Denver outscored Minnesota 27-5 on the fast break. Kevin McHale issued a postgame lament that the effort needs to be better. Tick tick tick...five games to go.
3. Popping off on the basis of first impressions
Okay folks, take this with a boulder of salt, because I've never claimed to be an expert about the college game and the draft in general. But after now seeing UConn center Thabeet a full game (and having caught bits and pieces of him in two or three others), I'm genuinely wondering who in the world regards him as a top-flight NBA prospect? I mean, his skills around the hoop at both ends of the court are unrefined. He plays smaller than 7-3 (like about 6-10). He seems relatively quick for a college 7 footer (even though he doesn't play 7 feet tall) but still lacks NBA quickness from what I can see. And he's soft. Michigan State kicked his ass seven ways to Sunday the other day.
On top of that, I'm reading SI the other day (the baseball preview issue) and it handicaps the final four NCAA teams before the games. Under UConn, it says about defending the Huskies, "Hasheem Thabeet is great going to his left [in close] but if you can keep him from doing that, he can't score." (Okay, I saw that that was probably inaccurate, as Thabeet had a few righty moves on Saturday. But still...) And when it comes to going against UConn's D, the scouting report read: "Even though Thabeet blocks a lot of shots, you have to take the ball right at his chest and be aggressive. He's foul-prone if you go at him."
Does that sound like a legit NBA prospect to you--let alone someone expected to go in the lottery?
I've gleaned the pro-Thabeet arguments, which boil down to that he's really big, a decent athlete, new to the game and thus with upside, and a good kid. Sorry folks, that's not enough. As someone who fervantly believes the Wolves need a defensive presence in the paint as much as anything as an upgrade next season, I wouldn't touch Thabeet with a ten-foot pole. I'd think twice about taking him with a low-20s pick, although he'll apparently be long gone by then to some sucker outfit that will groom him into oblivion. If we're matching Wolves need and player skill set, the performer who seemed the best fit for Minnesota who played on Saturday was UNC point guard Ty Lawson.
I'll now let the college guys seize the conversation. Just don't try to sell me on Thabeet.
36 Reader Comments
In regards to the Denver game -
What a craptastic and boring game.
Then again, it's amazing that we were EVER close at all, considering we had ten healthy bodies and were without: Big Al, KLove, Foye, Smith, and Brewer. And the Nuggets are the second best team in the west (record wise.) However, it does appear they were just clownign and didn't really care. So whatever.
Why would Kevin Ollie EVER start or over a healthy Sebastian Telfair? That makes NO sense to me and it's borderline maddening and ridiculous!
Shellhead Williams with 14 points and 12 boards in 29 minutes!. Wow. Not sure how I feel about keeping him. I guess it depends on who we draft (aka if we get a legit center.)
In regards to Thabeet -
We have a monster debate going on over at the TWolvesblog forums about Thabeet. Anyways, the crux of it is that I haven't been sold for a while. There is NO WAY I want him with our top pick. Maybe if he slides, maybe. It's one thing to dominate these college guys that are way shorter than him, but he'll get owned in the NBA by some of those bigs. With his size and shot blocking ability, he should be destroying people on the defensive end EVERY game, but he doesn't. Plus he has no offense and is too frail. HOW does he play alongside Al?!?! There is no way that he can.
P.S. As always, thanks for these articles Britt.
It's hard to get a true sense of a guy's frame on tv, but Thabeet seems to have a very narrow build, especially through the shoulders...meaning he probably won't ever fill out, and will get muscled by shorter players, negating his height advantage.
I am no college hoops expert either, but I think I'd rather have the much less athletic Cole Aldrich who actually plays like a big man, appears to have a higher hoops IQ, and competes consistently.
Although, I could see them both being total stiffs, and sincerely hope we do better than either with our top pick.
Utah: I was surprised that Telfair was able to come down several times when the defense was set and get a layup without making any passes. Maybe they were tired, but the Jazz D is average at best.
Carney: I agree that they need some guys with better handles at the wing positions (Miller shouldn't be the team's best ballhandling wing). Eventually, I think they'll choose Brewer, and it won't be a big deal that Carney's gone. I still think Brewer can become a factor on defense, rebounding, and in the transition game. With that said, as a fan, Carney has provided me with some good memories this season, in a "remember that guy?" way.
Thabeet: A 7-footer needs to be mobile and athletic. It's part of the reason Brook Lopez is in the running for ROY and a guy like Roy Hibbert is a backup on a bad team. This team needs athletes, and adding another player who would be at a disadvantage on most nights in that department wouldn't help.
I imagine everyone has seen the Pioneer Press piece on Glen Taylor saying the Wolves are going to have a GM next year. (Thanks Twolves blog for keeping up with the news and being all around excellent!)
My question/concern: Is it likely that Glen Taylor could have been interviewing qualified front office candidates from winning organizations (San Antonio, Houston, Portland, Detroit) and that no one would be reporting about it? We've heard nothing from anyone about any interviews. Not even from sources in Detroit, Houston, etc.
This reeks of the usual Twins off season front office blabbery. [don't get me wrong, I like the Twins front office, but they always do this, every summer] Every summer the Twins make an "effort" to go after some high talent and high priced free agent, but they never sign this "target." It always seems like a bunch of hot air to convince fans that they are going after someone. [my mind is totally blanking on specific examples, so maybe I'm wrong, but I'm convinced I'm correct.]
Anyway, here's a bit of the Pioneer Press article:
Owner Glen Taylor, interviewed at halftime of Minnesota's 110-87 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night at Target Center, said he still expects Kevin McHale to return as coach next season but that McHale hasn't told him he would.
Taylor also said the team will have a general manager-type to head up basketball operations, ending the committee-style approach it has used in recent seasons.
"We're going to have one person that will be at the top," Taylor said. "We've interviewed quite a few people."
Asked if that person will come from inside or outside the organization, Taylor said: "We're interviewing inside and outside. I'd say we're pretty much done with it."
Since McHale gave up his position as vice president of basketball operations to become coach on Dec. 8, his front-office duties have been divided among general manager Jim Stack, assistant GM Fred Hoiberg and others.
Taylor said he expects to fill the front-office position within a couple of weeks after the end of the season and reiterated that McHale returning to his former job is not an option.
"He's not one of the candidates," Taylor said.
I have long been of the opinion that Thabeet is overrated, and wouldn't touch him in the top 10, let alone in the top 5, at least not for this team.
Think of it from a balance and value standpoint: Big Al and Love may have issues defensively, but they're both above-average bigs who I feel good about throwing out there for the majority of the game. It's true that we need a defensive presence, maybe someone like a Brendan Haywood, who could come in and play 24-30mpg, but do we honestly think a back court that plays Foye and Telfair major minutes can ever compete?
There are always a few characteristics that championship teams have in common, and one of these is an agressive guard who can create shots even if the defense gears to stop him. Think Kobe, Wade, Ginobili/Parker or even Billups. This is why I think that if we land in the 4-7 range, we have to take a flyer on an athlete like DeRozan or ball-handling slasher like Evans, or even Brandon Jennings. Do whatever it takes to land a guard with all-star potential.
I look at it like this: If we take Thabeet, where do we land an all-star guard? What are the odds that a guy like Joe Johnson will come here in free agency? Seems to me like our best shot at landing that perimeter stud we need is in the draft, and if we can accomplish that, it will be much easier to add a big like Haywood (who I believe is a FA in 2010) to round out our front court than it would be to add a Joe Johnson.
Tick, tick, tick FIVE games to go.
Of the ten guys in uniform last night, who will matter to the Wolves in 2009-2010?
Gomes, Telfair, Miller (if he goes back to shooting). That's it, right?
Brown, Ollie, Maddog, Williams, Collins, Carney, Cardinal - all either gone or end of bench.
So, if Al is ready to roll, we'll have 6-8 of a ten-man rotation next October:
Bigs: Jefferson, Love, (Smith)
Swings: Gomes, Brewer, (Miller)
Backcourt: Foye, Telfair
We need one of each to be on the road to legitimacy. Backcourt help comes first. Not sure if a swing or big comes next. At least one of the three should be a vet.
At Canis they report Glen has been interviewing and has just about landed on a GM. Whoever that is better have authority over choosing a coach too.
I'm not holding my breath.
As for Thabeet, I've been watching the lad off and on for two seasons. Britt, your first impression should be your final one.
He is "famous" for blocking shots, but it seems more the case that the ball happens to get directed in the vicinity of his arms. It is more the case of happenstance than deliberate swat.
He also fails to position himself for passes as opposed to passively waiting for the ball to find him.
I think of all the other big men blunders in the NBA whenever I watch him. More than a project, he is a hopeless cause for somebody (hopefully not the Wolves).
Whew - I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels the same about Thabeet. In his defense, he's probably going to be a good weak-side shot blocker, which will be helpful when other teams go right at Al, making him a better fit for the Wolves than for most other teams. I'd say he's definitely a waste of a top-3 pick, though if he falls to #7 (which is around where I think we'll pick), I'd have to think about it, depending on who else is out there. He also seems like he's trying to "pick fights" out there to get himself psyched up - ego like that can be both an asset and a liability, depending on team chemistry.
I'm not very enamored of this lottery class in general, especially compared with what I think was a great overall draft class of 2008. Does anyone have any insight on Brandon Jennings (beyond the draftexpress and nbadraft.net profiles)?
Speaking of Thabeet, his chief big man rival on mock drafts - Cole Aldrich -will be going back to KU next season. Although we should probably focus on our backcourt with our lottery pick, this is one less stud in this year's draft, thus making it even weaker than it already is. Him and Evan Turner returning to college really hurts the depth of this draft in my opinion. Now if Rubio bows out as well, this becomes a total crapshoot after Griffin, to the point where having pick #6 isn't much different than #2.
His defense seems to fall off when his shot is going down?
If Brewer's shot was ever going down, perhaps we could tell if his defense then fell off. If he is still a Wolf, I hope we can find out.
The thing that always amazed me about the whole Thabeet debate is that his own coach doesn't trust a player who carries a nearly 65% eFG and a 77.4 FTrate with any...I repeat...any meaningful part of the offense. Put yourself in Calhoun's shoes. Why can't a 7'3" monster of a player who shoots an amazing percentage from the floor and who gets to the line with that high of a rate be trusted in the offense? Answer: because he's the Brock Lesnar of college ball. He has everything you could possibly want in terms of physical gifts but he hasn't played the game long enough to look like he has the first clue as to what he should be doing. His size and athleticism alone will land him a job in the NBA. If he's sitting there with the Heat pick, and guys like Nick Calathes and Ty Lawson are off the board, the Wolves could do a lot worse, but this guy isn't a lotto pick. He'll be a career backup with significant red flags and weaknesses.
BTW:
We have him ranked 9th overall in our latest Hoopus draft board. I probably should have him and Ty Lawson (11th) switched around, but it's a pretty weak draft and anything after Griffin is a crap shoot.
I was keeping my Thabeet opinions to myself (so as to not to dash the hopes of the Wolves' faithful) but I see that my thoughts align with Britt and more than a few others I respect here. As antonymous wrote: "Whew!"
Now, if only that long-awaited new GM will read these pages and act accordingly.
NOA--
Carney is shooting 41.7% this season. Now admittedly, nearly half of them are treys, but he shot 40.3% last season (46.4% as a rook). Brewer's small-sample 41.1%, coming after last year's abysmal 37.4%, is worse, but we're not exactly talking a huge gap here. And the next time Rodney Carney shuts down Paul Pierce like Brewer did twice last season, it will be his first.
I have gotten to the point where I completely agree with pretty much everyone on the Thabeet thing. He's got a very slight frame, gets muscled down low(insert Dajuan Blair joke here), and is completely clueless on the offensive side of the ball. On top of all that, for being 7'3" in college, he isn't nearly the rebounding presence you'd hope for. Rather, most of his rebounds seem to just fall in his direction, with his height winning out on them. This will not add to success in the pros and I think the Roy Hibbert comparison is very accurate. I would much rather sell some a pick or two for next year and go after Aldrich. All Minnesota born-and-bred comments aside, that kid could be a very good piece in a 3-man rotation down low with Jeff and Love.
That being said, I'd still do a Miller and the 6th to move up and get Rubio. Trust me, gentlemen, that kid is legit.
I'm pretty high on Thabeet, at least in this relatively weak draft. He dominated, defensively, this year in almost every game he played. His offense wouldn't matter on the Wolves.
No, I wouldn't take him over Griffin or Rubio (assuming Ricky is what people say he is) but Thabeet is certainly one of the best prospects in this crop. If the Wolves are picking around #6, I won't be surprised or upset if we take Thabeet. We'll instantly become more credible when we play good teams, and our long-term potential as a playoff team will be a lot better.
That said, if we go a different route and take a Brandon Jennings or James Harden, that might prove the right decision. It's just a crapshoot type of draft and you can do a lot worse than a shotblocking 7-foot+ center.
If you'd like an idea of what Brandon Jennings would look like dishing to Kevin Love, here's some footage of their AAU team: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWX0ufGTHtE
Here's what he looks like dunking, dishing, and dancing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wXJvsWEmcw&feature=related
If you're looking for allstar backcourt talent I think he's your guy; special talent, crazy handle, vision, hops. But he's cosmopolitan enough to run off to Italy after high school in SoCal, and I think there's a good chance he'd be discontented here.
Assuming we don't get a top two pick, I still like Thabeet. He's so new to the game and has improved by leaps and bounds every year. Andy G is right, the Wolves don't need much offense out of their center, they need shot blocks and defense. Sure it would be nice if he could draw his man out to make room for Al J, but I'd rather have a defender than another Mark Blount. He could bust but his upside is sky high. When was the last time the Wolves landed a quality big defender via trade or free agency? Never? Joe Smith maybe? Guards are easier to come by, although nothing comes easy to the Wolves.
I'm guessing Jim Stack is the new GM. He took a walk down to the Brass Rail for a beer and as he was walking back they "brought him in from outside," interviewed him, and gave him the job.
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Joannah
Andy G, Big Stan, and others--
Hopefully you guys watch a lot more college hoops than I do and see something I don't. Because I really don't care whether Thabeeet becomes the Francisco Oberto of shooters (meaning pretty much putbacks only), I don't even see his *defense* being NBA caliber. It is not just that he's new to the game, which is certainly true, but it didn't look to me like he's really taken to the game either--he doesn't love it and want marinate in it. His upside reminds me of Luc Longley, another guy who was really big and had some athleticism but just thought the world didn't begin and end with hoops.
The other thing to factor in with Thabeet is, unlike a guy like Mutombo, he doesn't have a lot of upper-body strength, and his narrow shoulders suggest he won't gain a lot. How effective was Shawn Bradley? I'd much rather have them take a chance on a taller 3 who could play 4 in a smaller lineup (Al-Farouq Aminu?) because it'd be just as helpful to have a guy like that when Love and Jefferson were on the court together.
Hello Britt - Great writing once again. The long-running "Is Thabeet an NBA center or a dud?" continues here, with more disliking him than at other places. The one thing I noticed after watching him play Mizzou and MI St is that he runs awkwardly. He doesn't use his legs to thier full length running down the floor. A number of times I was watching him, either in transition or just going back after a made basket, he "shuffle-runs." Over at T-Wolves central, some had compared him to Zo, but while his numbers compare to Mournings, he doesn't use his body,(what there is of it) to his advantage. What good is 7'3 if you play like 6'6?
Anyway, that's my 2 cents worth, even if it only worth a half-penney.
I can't say I've watched Thabeet any more than in that one Final Four game, but all the comparisons here make me think of another 7-footer with little basketball experience who went high in the draft to a poor organization and never really panned out: Michael Olowokandi.
Well, I guess Thabeet has a pretty terrible approval rating amongst the Wolves fans, here. I made a point to sit and watch his game against Louisville a few months back, when he held Samardo Samuels to 0 points and scared Earl Clark into casting jumpers at about a 1-10 clip. UConn won by about 15-20 against the previously undefeated (in the conference season) Louisville. Thabeet was really strutting in the second half and looked like a big, cocky, dominant center. In other words, exactly the type of player the TWolves could use if they want to make the playoffs anytime soon.
People who watched DeJuan Blair take it to him have a different opinion. I just tend to think that shorter, stronger guys are more effective as level of play goes down. Bigger bodies get less awkward and more powerful into adulthood. Thabeet, barring injuries (which are, I admit, a big concern for guys over 7' tall) will be heard from in the NBA.
I think we're all assuming the Wolves get the 5th or 6th pick, here. That means no Griffin (whom we would likely try to trade for a King's Ransom) and no Rubio. It's not a top-heavy draft, so a guy that can defend the paint might be our best way to go. If the draft is heavy at any position, it's young forwards with upside, like Aminu, Monroe, Hill, Davis, etc. I think most would agree that the Love-trade sufficiently stacked the roster at that position. Point guard and center should be priorities.
I hope we get either Thabeet or Mullens and either Rubio/Jennings or Lawson/Curry. A big center and true point guard would be a good draft. In a dream scenario, we'd find a way to get a do-it-all small forward like Caron Butler or Josh Howard, in a trade, but I'm not holding my breath, there.
I respectfully disagree with Andy G's draft hopes. There are far too many red flags and questions about Thabeet, beginning and ending (at least for me) with his heart and desire to play basketball. Love makes up for his physical limitations by relentless pursuing every other advantage he has. We've already drafted one seven footer who blocked shots and had a good FG% in Paul Grant, and how'd he turn out? Exactly. If we need a center, I'd rather make a play for Pekovic and get him over here. Maybe he turns into something, maybe not, but at least he's big and athletic, has at least as much upside as Thabeet (in my opinion anyways), and best of all we already own his rights. If it's about money, then give him the money and let's roll the dice.
I fervently hope that the Wolves draft the best players available. The cupboard is bare, my friends. Beyond Big Al and KLove there are only role players (assuming Miller is out of here within 12 months). We simply need as much legitimate talent as possible, even if it means doubling up at some positions. Talent always has value in the NBA, and that means that a surplus of it for us (at one position) means we can trade for what we don't have more easily.
I agree with biggity on this. Thabeet's best-case scenario is Mutombo, a guy who made one Finals appearance during his prime and usually became more of a liability when facing a better opponent. Personally, he seems more like a cross between Shawn Bradley and Roy Hibbert, two guys who aren't know for being game-changers.
They need starting-caliber players at three positions: center, wing and point guard. Unless an Andrew Bynum-type player is available, the focus should be on getting good players to fill the skills the Wolves need: athletes who can play D and guys who can create shots for themselves and teammates and draw fouls. Maybe if Mullens is there with the Heat pick, he should be considered, but I'd rather reach for whatever they didn't get with the top pick (point or wing) and hope Mullens falls to the Celtic pick. The fact that Mullens came out a year after DeAndre Jordan should indicate that guys like this will be available in future years.
I'm not as high on Thabeet as I am low on most of the projected lotto picks--especially given our current roster. If we didn't have two good power forwards (and not much else) I would be intrigued by guys like Greg Monroe. But, he's got no place on our team, no matter how many times you repeat "best player available."
Harden is slow, but talented. Lawson is quick, but small. DeRozan is athletic, but not very assertive. Thabeet is huge and blocks shots, but he's 7'3" and people associate that with Shawn Bradley. There are drawbacks to every player not-named Griffin or Rubio, so I'd rather roll the dice with a huge position of need than with our umpteenth swing and miss at a 2/3 player that we're horrible at evaluating. Mayo was the talented guard that we should've acquired. There's not a Mayo in the draft.
Who is the "athlete who can play D and create shot for themselves and teammates and draw fouls"? Name that player, and we should draft him--I just don't think he's in this draft. Not if we're talking about the NBA.
Again, it's not that I think Thabeet is going to be an All-Star--but anybody who even draws comparisons to Mutumbo (as he should) deserves a hard look from the team trotting out some of the worst interior D in the league.
The assumption that their interior D is bad isn't necessarily the whole truth. Jefferson and Love aren't great defenders, but their worst defenders statistically are on the perimeter (Telfair, Ollie, Miller). Bad perimeter defense makes interior players look like worse defenders than they are. I know defensive stats are hard to track, but in today's NBA, a good perimeter defender is worth just as much as a shot blocker.
If that's the case, I'd rather take Tyreke Evans, who has flaws like Thabeet but comes with a 6'11 wingspan, arguably as much upper-body strength as Thabeet, is 6'5 and has played PG his entire basketball career, and gets to the foul line. He can defend multiple positions and played in a system in Memphis that required defensive ability. His potential is higher, and he'd be more ready to play right away.
You're assuming that a) being a good shot-blocker means a player is a good individual or team defender; b) being huge is okay even if that guy isn't mobile or physically strong for his position and c) the Wolves need more help with interior D than perimeter D. I'm not sure Evans is the best pick, but he's a better pick than Thabeet if the Wolves go for defense.
PSR-
I'm not really assuming those things. On a) I think Thabeet is a great defensive player--I'm not assuming that he's just a shotblocker--I watched him dominate entire games on the defensive end of the court and I think he has great instincts on when to jump for blocks and when to play straight up. His weakside shotblocking is an added bonus.
On b) I think Thabeet is quite mobile for a center, and extremely mobile for a 7'3" center. He runs the floor as well as Love or Jefferson, and he's 5+" taller than them.
On c) I don't know if I'm assuming that--I just think it. I think Brewer has huge potential as a defensive wing player, and before his injury he showed some improvement on offense. With that short sample of his play before the ACL tear, I actually feel ok about him as a potential long-term option on our team. Bassy and Foye are both showing more and more that their careers are either going to be spent coming off the bench of good teams, or starting for bad teams. If we can get Rubio to fill a permanent spot in the backcourt, I'm all for it.
Fair enough. The bigger issue to me is that most good defenses are good because their best defensive players are also their most versatile players on both ends. The only centers who can stay on the court at all times are guys who can guard any power forward or guys who can punish a team for going small (like Dwight Howard). Thabeet doesn't fit either description. Wouldn't it be better to have the best defensive players be guys who can guard someone on the perimeter and cover the pick and roll? In any of the best defenses in the NBA, a "traditional" center is not one of the three best defenders on the team. It's usually 1-2 perimeter players (Rondo, Bowen, Bell, Mason), a 3/4 tweener (Battier, Prince), and a 4/5 (former Ben Wallace, Garnett, Varejao, even Howard).
A follow-up: the last "true" center to make an all-NBA defensive team was Shaq in the 02-03 season. Otherwise, the big guys on the team have been 4/5s (KG, Howard, Duncan, Wallace, Camby). All of those guys are very mobile and athletic. The game has changed since the hand-check rules changed.
Andy G's pretty much summed it up. I don't get all the Thabeet hating around here. How is we're not excited about a possible Mutombo? Even a guy half as good as Mutombo? This draft is weak, no sure things after 1 or 2. I haven't watched much college ball, but I've checked out a lot of videos and pics of thabeet and he's stronger than bradley (and shorter). Shoulders a bit narrow compared to the rest of his build but he's no toothpick and will fill out more. I read he used to be a soccer player so that may explain the "shuffle" running. From what I've seen, he's not slow and he's not a lop. Even saw him make a nice slick pass in one of the clips. If he doesn't have the fire that could be a problem, but I don't think he's too weak or too slow to help the wolves.
Lawson could be the next Marcus Banks. I like Jennings, but flashy players like flashy cities. It's gonna be a crap shoot with that first pick. Curry is intriguing. But if it's my flyer, I'm using it on the 7'3" guy.
I'm also not as down on Thabeet as others on here. I guess I would be in Andy and Big Stan's camp. The one thing I would mention is that everyone talks about the one game where Blair dominated Thabeet. But they never talk about the second matchup a few weeks later where Thabeet stifled Blair, outscoring, outrebounding, and outblocking him. The point being that for anyone in this draft not named Blake Griffin, you can pick out a handful of games that clearly demonstrate the player's weaknesses. In a weak draft like this, I'm somewhat more inclined to pick a guy like Thabeet who I'm sure is going to contribute at some level versus a complete risk/reward pick like Jennings or DeRozan.
Fair enough. I just don't think he's a strong enough rebounder to compare to Mutombo and think that true centers are an overrated commodity in the NBA. Evans is as good of a defender as Thabeet, has a raw-but-effective offensive game that would balance with what the Wolves already have, and could stay on the floor for any situation. Bottom line, I can't justify spending even the 9th pick on a guy who is at best an effective situational player. If he's a factor, the other team just goes small and pick-and-rolls him off the floor and/or makes him guard a shooter and pulls him away from the hoop. Offensively, he'd make Jefferson be automatically double-teamed and would probably turn the ball over at a high rate.
Barring a trade for a stud point guard, we have to draft one. Our current point guard situation (Telfair, Ollie and Brown) is pathetic, with Telfair being the only guy with a future here. Although this upcoming draft is shallow, we can't do much worse than our current situation by drafting someone like Willie Warren, Rubio or Brandon Jennings.
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
Betty
Thanks for sharing this information. But they never talk about the second matchup a few weeks later where Thabeet stifled Blair, outscoring, outrebounding, and outblocking him. The point being that for anyone in this draft not named Blake Griffin, you can pick out a handful of games that clearly demonstrate the player's weaknesses.
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