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I guess the early lesson of the 2009 playoffs is that if you're missing a star--especially if it's Garnett or Ginobili--you're in more trouble than you thought. As someone who picked the Celts and Spurs to triumph in round one, duly noted.

Here are my educated guesses for how things will go for the remaining first round series that begin Sunday. As with Part I, the series are listed in the chronological order in which they will be viewed on television.

Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs. Utah Jazz (8)

The abiding question seems to be whether the Lakers take it in 5 or get the sweep. L.A.'s weak link is point guard, and Utah has one of the best in Deron Williams, but after that there really isn't anything too positive that can be said about Utah's chances. Their undersized front line is way overmatched against Bynum-Gasol-Odom and company, who are quicker as well as bigger than Boozer and Okur--and if that weren't enough,  Mehmet is questionable for Sunday's opener. The Jazz have no one who can really cover Kobe--no, Kirilenko is not a good matchup, and it will probably come down to Ronnie Brewer--and the Lakers are out for blood.

L.A. in 5

Orlando Magic (3) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (6)

The overwhelming consensus among folks is that Orlando will blow out Philly in 4 or 5 and I don't totally get the logic. Yes, the Magic won handily during the regular season, but Orlando's big bookend forwards, Lewis and Turkoglu, are both slowed by injury, and with Samuel Dalembert, Theo Ratliff and even the 6-10 rook Speights and undersized but feisty Reggie Evans, the Sixers have bodies to throw at Dwight Howard. Andre Miller is grossly underrated and a huge matchup advantage over Rafer Alston. And Andre Iguodala is an exciting player who could explode, making Mickeal Pietrus an important potential defensive stopper for Orlando. Finally, Philly operates the controlled running game as well as anyone without Elton Brand around to slow it down--they know exactly when to step on the peddle, or slow it down. Unless Howard runs amok, Philadelphia will throw a little scare into the Magic.

Orlando in 6.

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Miami Heat (5)

Conversely, I don't think this series will be as close as many are predicting. Dwyane Wade was indisputably one of the top three or four players in the league this season, and the refs favor him, especially in the playoffs, more than any of his peers. But the Hawks counter with a pretty fair player in Joe Johnson--arguably the league's most underrated star--and Miami loses the matchup battle at every other position. The return of forward Marvin Williams from injury enhances Atlanta's size advantage in the paint, and while the rook Mario Chalmers has been a marvelous pickup for Miami, people are discounting Mike Bibby's crunchtime capability, borne over 58 games and more than 2200 minutes of playoff expereince. Al Horford and Josh Smith are a year older and better for a team that extended the Celts to seven games in the first round last year and clearly established itself as the 4th best team in the East this season. Does anyone see Jermaine O'Neal getting the best of Atlanta's young, deep frontcourt, even if Udonis Haslem plays up to snuff helping him out? Wade is fabulous, but worth one game, two at the most.

Atlanta in 5 or 6.

Denver Nuggets (2) vs. New Orleans Hornets (7)

Parsing any Western Conference playoff team besides the Lakers is a byzantine enterprise because they're all terrific, flawed, ballclubs, and it isn't easy to ascertain when and where one side's virtues will vanguish the other side's flaws. My intuition tells me the Hornets are going to pull the upset here, but the harder I look at the matchups, the more I see it as an extension of why people think Miami will beat Atlanta--the "best player" syndrome. As valuable as Billups has been this season (and he's in my top half-dozen for MVP) and as good as Melo Anthony is, Chris Paul is obviously the top player on either team. But he doesn't have much beside him, and all of a sudden, the Nuggets are loaded. Losing Iverson and Camby wasn't nearly the one-two punch we suspected because both are now exposed as well-past their primes. Meanwhile, Billups is the ideal second banana for Melo, taking and ceding pecking order responsibilities in all the right ways. And the role players have slotted in accordingly. The health of Nene and Birdman Anderson and solidified physical soundness of K-Mart give Denver quality depth on the front line. The rejuvenated Nene would be a respectable matchup against a healthy Tyson Chandler, and if Chandler's mobility remains limited, Nene becomes that much more formidable. Meanwhile, if I'm George Karl, I play a fair amount of double-point with Billips and Anthony Carter sharing the backcourt--AC is a subtlely difficult obstacle that will prevent Paul from getting in his comfort zone. Plus Renaldo Balkman and Linus Kleiza can make life miserable for Peja.

Yeah, there's a chance New Orleans can spring the upset. Paul plays out of his mind, J.R, Smith practices chuckleheaded shot selection, Byron  Scott outcoaches George Karl, West's midrange gets the Nugs in foul trouble, and Tyson Chandler finds the magic that made him one of my favorite players in the league last year. James Posey starts earning that fat contract by snuffing Melo. And don't sleep on Rasual Butler, the second coming of Janero Pargo. But Denver is deep and rugged and New Orleans isn't. If it goes to a 7th game, I'd bet New Orleans, even on the road. But I think it will end before then.

Denver in 6.