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On the Ball
The Three-Pointer: One In a Row
Photo copyright 2009 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)
Game #64, Home Game #33: Minnesota 104, Memphis 79
Season Record: 19-45
1. Rebounding with Rebounds
We need to begin with the stipulation that Memphis was as shame-faced over this monstrosity as the Wolves were after getting depantsed by the Clippers (when Wittman finally lost his job) and Golden State (when McHale finally lost his cool). Interim coach Lionel Hollins labeled it "our most embarrassing game of the season." When I asked a Memphis beat writer (or he might have been in radio; he certainly came into town to cover the the road team) if this was the worst he's seen the Grizz perform this year, he said, "oh yeah, no question."
Letting the Wolves beat you by 25 will drive that needle down on your evaluation.
But let's give the victor a small amount of due. With Randy Foye out with his alley-oopd ankle, the Wolves went large with a front line of Collins-Love-Gomes and a backcourt of Miller-Telfair, then pounded that size advantage on an opponent that wasn't prepared for a whupping. "Guys made shots. We started out with good ball movement, directing the ball toward a few players [who had mismatches]" said coach Kevin McHale after the game. "Starting out with Miller on OJ Mayo in the post."
Yes, the 6-8 Miller frequently had his way with the 6-4 rook, which explains his 11 points and 6 rebounds in 11:35 first quarter minutes. But Ryan Gomes also had 11 using his bulk, smarts and newfound offensive confidence against the equally tall but much lighter Rudy Gay. And Kevin Love schooled Darrell Arthur for 8 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists in the first quarter.
Most of all, the Wolves owned the glass, at both ends of the court. With 3:23 to play in the first, the Grizz had exactly one rebound. At that point the Wolves were already up 28-12, not only shooting 11-15 FG, but getting offensive rebounds on three of those four misses and subsequently converting them for points. So, stymied only by two turnovers and that Memphis defensive rebound, they needed just 15 possessions to score those 28 points--not too shabby.
And apparently necessary. The Wolves have now won exactly two games since January 26, and both of those victories occurred when they outrebounded their foe by at least 20. Against Miami back on Feb. 18, the margin was 49-24; tonight against Memphis it was a more modest 48-28. Yes, that seems like a pretty rare prerequisite for victory, but take heart; the run-and-gun Knicks are up next with one of the worst rebounding differentials in the league.
It is dangerous to provincialize your opinion of a player--I have apparently underrated Kevin Durant due to his wretched outings against Minnesota, although the Thunder's surge with Durant sidelined keeps me skeptical about his hype--and I see that Marc Gasol has put up 11.5/7.5/1.7 this season, but the guy is a horrible defender, a water buffalo who's lift and reaction are woefully slow and inadequate. Along with Amare Stoudamire and Yao Ming, Gasol is one of the three pivot men (and only non-All Star, ironically) that Al Jefferson used as a chew toy in scoring low-post buckets whenever he pleased this year. With Big Al on the shelf, McHale went with Jason Collins, who is equally slow and woeful--he and Gasol could could the cobwebs strung between each other's ankles--but at least Collins has the excuse of being old and rarely deployed. And tonight, even Collins shut the gate on the paint for Gasol, who grabbed zippo rebounds in his first 8:37, and finished with 5 in 35:41. Compare that to Darko Milicic, who snared 10 in 19:57, a major reason why Gasol was minus -27 and Darko was a team-best plus +8.
2. Love vs. Mayo, Again and Again
Decriers of Wolves (mis)management can filibuster for days about dunderheaded personnel decisions--keeping Avery and jettisoning Bobby Jackson, or taking McCants instead of Granger or, inevitably, getting Foye for Roy. The beauty of the draft day trade that brought Kevin Love here for OJ Mayo (and much else, of course, but let's stick with that for now) is that it is a worthy debate to have, with compelling evidence on both sides of the Love/Mayo equation.
With 18 points, 2 rebounds and 5 assists tonight, Mayo statistically had the worst of his three games versus Minnesota this season, but there was still a lot to like. There was a crossover dribble to his left hand that seemed to presage a hard drive from the left wing tonight, but when the defender (I think it was Kevin Ollie) bit, Mayo abruptly pulled up and had the strength to jack up a quick-release fadeway j right-handed while going to his left. It was confirmation that, absent a sheer beast guarding him, Mayo can pretty much get his own shot whenever he wants. Another thing I like about Mayo is that in all three games versus the Wolves this season, he's understood pivotal moments and sought to rise to those occasions. Now the downside to that is that each time his reach has exceeded his grasp, putting him at risk of becoming Stephon Marbury, another guy who knew when to seize the spotlight but didn't look so hot in the heat of those kleigs. But couple that shooting prowess with a sense of context about game flows and throw in decent defense, and a good handle for an off-guard, and Mayo is a piece you want to keep on a contending team. Sure, the Wolves were able to exploit Miller's size advantage, just as Minnesota's opponents frequently do with 6-2 Randy Foye at the off-guard slot--and Mayo is a better defender than Foye. I wouldn't vote him rookie of the year--Russell Westbrook has excited me more than any other rook this season, and if Derrick Rose can get Chicago into the playoffs, he probably would be second in my voting, with Mayo probably third (haven't seen enough of Brook Lopez).
But long-term, I'd rather have Kevin Love than OJ Mayo, and that's before Mike Miller and all the salary cap space from the draft day trade is factored in. I've said this before: I prefer an undersized 4 who is a redundant complement to Al Jefferson over an undersized 2 who is a redundant complement to Randy Foye. Love's play tonight--19 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists--merely reinforces my bias. Despite a plethora of supposed options, Memphis didn't really have a good matchup for him tonight--Darrell Arthur is too light, Darius Miles too slow and too slight, Gasol and Darko not capable of coming outside the paint on D or finishing very smoothly on offense (although Darko made Jason Collins look silly a few times). But beyond the inferior matchups he faced, Love, like Mayo, has a court awareness and precocious poise that makes him more trustworthy. It is really hard to see either player being a bust (or a star, unfortunately), and not hard at all to imagine both remaining in the league for a decade as solid performers. Mayo is a little more classic in his skill set, but Love's weakside rebounding and midrange game (he flashed that jumper a few times tonight and it is going to be a weapon) make him potentially more versatile. Finally, in the stat that counts the most, Love is up on Mayo 3-0.
3. Miller Shoots!
Try as I might, I couldn't make it through a three-pointer without a glimpse at Mike Miller's FGA. A dozen shots versus three assists and two turnovers is exactly the sort of aggression toward the hoop we've all been imploring from Miller (me perhaps more than most...). Compelled by McHale to look for his own shot given his height advantage with Mayo, Miller limited his dribble and kicks some and also crashed the glass, grabbing 6 rebounds in the first quarter alone. A fat lead enabled McHale to sit him the entire 4th quarter, making his 18/11/3 line all the more impressive for it being done in 29:24.
With Foye as well as Jefferson out (plus Rodney Carney, the first player I can ever remember being sideline from a hit to the nuts), and the mismatch awaiting with Mayo, it took some pretty extraordinary circumstances to get Miller looking to score, and concentrate less on the "little things" for which he seems inordinately proud and concerned. Perhaps the growing buzz over his "unselfishness" is exerting positive peer pressure. Strib beat writer Jerry Zgoda seemed especially interested in the Miller angle tonight (and Steve Aschburner did a good piece in si.com). In any event, Miller took great pains to emphasize that his team won the game and that that was more important than whatever amount of points he did or didn't score. Someday, the connection between an aggressive, scoring-oriented Miller and his team's increased chances of winning will get through to Miller. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Miller return to his pass-happy ways versus the Knicks on Friday.
24 Reader Comments
Customers used my tickets, so I got to watch at home - in HD!! (I wish every game was in HD)
The 1st quarter was some of the prettiest basketball I have seen all season. The ball was just zipping around, guys were moving and keeping space, and the shot selection was good. Plus, as Britt pointed out, the rebounding was terrific in part to the Grizzles being out of position caused mainly by all the rotating they were doing to keep up with our motion offense.
13-22 with 7 assists is just the ticket to a winning quarter every time.
So as much as I loved the 1st quarter, I hated the 2nd. The Rhino, who I think needs to be renamed Black Hole, must have decided it was garbage time as he just simply refused to keep the ball moving. So, we got about 6 minutes of Smith, Brown, and Williams trying to play 1 on 5 while Cardinal and Ollie looked on. Worse, when the starters came back, everyone was trying to rebuild the lead by themselves instead of playing the way that got them the lead in the 1st place. It started to get tough to watch.
If you watched on TV, just before the 2nd half, as FSN does each game, Telly Hughes grabs a Twolves coach for a quick comment. Tonight it was Jerry Sichting. When asked what they talked about at half, Sichting's comment was "we need to fix the rotation". BINGO! I bring this up only in that I have lately been advocating, maybe a little too strongly, on behalf of the competency of the staff. But it was nice to hear Jerry say it, rather some other blabber.
Many of Mayo's points last night came after the outcome was decided. The kid is wearing down. I think he was a little over hyped after his 23.1 pg on 48% from 2 and 42% from 3 November. I still think he is going to be a very strong player - but not the superstar many were predicting last fall.
Finally, watching Mayo and Love play last night, does anyone else see the wisdom in keeping Love's minutes in check this year? I saw one rookie playing hard and improving while the other one was running on fumes. I think the Twolves were wise to limit Love so that he could have a full, productive season rather than crashing into the rookie wall.
JAF--
Sichting has always impressed me. The word I get is that he is probably too much of a hard-ass to wear well as a head coach, but the brief times he's filled in and whenever he's called upon to comment at halftime or postgame, he has the confidence and wisdom to avoid platitudes (unlike Ed Pinckney, who seems to have a string coming out of his back, programmed to repeat at least half of Hughes' halftime question and then agree with whatever sentiment Hughes seems to be proffering).
What you saw as Mayo getting in garbage time I saw as Mayo sensing a potential Grizzlies spurt and seeking to maximize it, an attunement to a potential momentum shift. And to be fair to Mayo, even gassed he was putting forth more of an effort than Rudy Gay, who was completely worn out by Gomes.
Don't disagree with you about Smith being a black hole, but there aren't a lot of points in that second unit as currently constituted.
Finally, something neither of us mentioned on our first take: Memphis really got back into the game due to some uncharacteristically sloppy play by Bassy Telfair, who yielded six easy points through three turnovers in that second period.
I was thinking the same thing about Mayo. Interesting to look at his shooting percentages by month on this (even though I know they don't tell the whole story about his game): Nov. = .480, Dec. = .438, Jan. = .420, Feb. = .412, Mar. = .406. I would be jealous if I thought Memphis was going to have November Mayo on the roster for good, but I would be skittish about embracing Jan/Feb Mayo long-term, to say the least. For the time being, I'm celebrating. Oh yeah, and no matter how good Mayo gets, there's gotta be about a 20% chance he elects to stay in Memphis if and when he doesn't have to.
It will be interesting to see just how long Mayo can maintain what he is doing (or what he was doing near the beginning of the year) in terms of making a very high percentage of his 2 point shots while dealing with a declining 3 point shot and not getting to the line.
He's really good at getting his shot off in traffic, but there aren't too many guys on this planet who can score 20 points per game while shooting 35-37% from 3 while not getting to the line a bunch. Here is a fantastic page to keep track of player shooting stats:
http://www.82games.com/0809/FGSORT7.HTM
The first thing you'll notice is that there are a few different player types here. The first one is the Ben Gordon/Nash type of player, a guy who can shoot the damn lights out from everywhere and has 40%+ across the board (Nash has fallen off this year but I'm giving him honorary status because he has been dependable for so long). Another type is the guy who shoots the hell out of the ball inside the arc but is a modest 3 point shooter while getting to the line at a pretty good clip. These are your Chris Pauls, Dirks, and Deron Williams. Then there are the guys like Mayo who shoot very well from 2 but don't get to the line or shoot the lights out from 3. Here we have guys like Jose Calderon (higher end 3 point guy) and Jason Terry.
If Mayo does not learn how to get to the line, he'll have a very hard time being a significantly above average player. If he can't develop this portion of his game, he definitely won't be anywhere near the player Love will be.
Britt,
The thing that frustrates me with the 2nd unit (as is) is that they are, as you say, offensively limited. So, the ball movement, screens, cuts, etc., become even more important for them because they can't create their own shots. They need to work together to get best chance points.
The lack a familiarity with Williams and Brown being so new can be a small part of that. But Rhino should know better and be leading the ball movement (like Cardinal does) instead of crushing it.
I almost threw a shoe at my TV when Bassey tried that cross court lob to Gomes resulting in Gay's offensive highlight for the evening. Except, I don't want to spend the money for a new TV right now......
The thing that frustrates me about the second unit is that they're D-League. ;)
Here's hoping they can add 2 good players in the draft, 1 in free agency/trade (or the other way around), and that Big Al and Brewer can come back from injury to be productive. That pushes everything down 5 spots. I don't think there is anything to be learned about the 2nd unit. I like how Gomes was given time with them last night but in the long run these guys are off the roster as soon as it is doable.
Here's what I do think can be interesting the rest of the way: Miller starting at the 2 spot with Foye coming off the bench. That certainly makes the backcourt size issue a bit less of a pickle. It also restores a bit of balance. If Gomes can play like this, and if Miller can start at the 2, then this team can really narrow down its options in the draft while still putting its players in spots where they can succeed. I'd like to know if Foye can stomach the role he's destined for.
Next years roster:
Big Al
Love
Miller
Gomes
Brewer
Foye
Bassy
2 1st rounders
2 free agents
2 Expiring Contracts(would it be Collins and MadDog?)
Front Office has lots of work to do. I really think we need to grab a starting PG in the draft or free agency along with a defensive center or small forward.
Anyone disagree with the top 7 players I listed as keepers next year?? I would also say that anyone on the roster should be available in a trade. I would really like to keep Love but if the right offer came around........
Thank you Britt for all your 3 pointers this year. I would be willing to donate to a website next year if that is the case.
I guess I'm still not convinced by the trade. I'm not sure I follow why you (Britt) "prefer an undersized 4 who is a redundant complement to Al Jefferson over an undersized 2 who is a redundant complement to Randy Foye." Or perhaps, I don't see Mayo as a redundant complement to Randy Foye - he seems to be a bigger and better player as a rookie. If the wolves had him this would allow them to use Foye as a 6th man where his erratic play wouldn't be quite so detrimental to the team - it would improve the starting unit and the 2nd unit at the same time. Mayo is an upgrade over the existing 2 guard, Love is a downgrade over the existing PF. Playing Love next to Jefferson doesn't seem to have much chance for success against play-off line-ups either. I still think Mayo is the better player (I apparently also don't agree that team wins is the most important stat when comparing two players), but also the better fit for the wolves.
Caerochren,
I disagree with you about Love vs. Mayo, but as Britt pointed out, at least the issue merits a serious debate, unlike Roy vs. Foye.
The Roy vs. Foye debate was done about 4 months into the season, was completely toast by the end of year 2 and is now dead and buried.
At least (and hopefully you agree) even if you'd rather have Mayo than Love, you probably don't wonder if those advocating for Love should have their heads examined.
This "problem" is a long way off but I've been thinking.
Suppose the Wolves do land a decent defensive center that can block shots. Who mans the 4 and 5 spots at the end of games? If Jefferson is always in, then it's either Love or defensive center at the other slot. IF Kevin Love is as good as some think he is, can you afford to take him off the floor? But if he's on the floor, the wolves have no shot blocking. And, it seems unlikely that the wolves could play Jefferson, Love, and a defensive 5 at the same time. [Of course, if you think Love is a career back up 4, this is less of a problem. And if Love is a young Elton Brand with 3 point range, then I guess it's a nice problem to have.]
I guess what the wolves might really need is a shot blocking 3, like AK-47.
Caerochren--
The distance between Mayo and Foye is negligible, in my view. Mayo is a volume shooter on a bad team. His defense and rebounding are superior to Foye, but Foye has a much better handle (his assists are higher, his turnovers lower). Mayo has been the more slightly accurate shooter, but the difference there is a whisker, and I agree with folks who want to see a larger sample of Mayo before we think that his shooting percentage will be maintained.
Merely saying that Jefferson is better than Love and Mayo is better than Foye is disingenous, because Jefferson is a much more valuable player than all three. My point was, giving the choice of 'tweeners, I'll take a 4/5 over a 1/2, all things being equal. I think 6-4 swingmen (who are closer to 6-3) are generically less valuable than 6-10 swingmen (who are closer to 6-8).
S+P--
Thanks for the invaluable 82games link. That site is a goldmine that's undeservedly obscure to too many folks, and I personally don't get over there enough.
But having argued against Mayo versus Caerochren, I'll now take up his cause against your point. You say a guy who doesn't shoot that well from three and doesn't get to the line... Well, the link you provided shows Mayo going for 37.7% from behind the arc, better than Hedo Turkoglu and Kyle Korver and just a titch behind Nocioni and Stojakovic. That's pretty good company. As has been discussed, I don't know if he'll be able to sustain it, but as of now, his range looks to be pretty solid.
I do agree this is nothing like the Foye/Roy mistake - Love is a good player (better than I expected him to be certainly). In fact, I agree that he is good enough that you can play him at the 4 and Jefferson at the 5 and have some success - however, I still think that their defensive struggles will ultimately doom that front line against top notch talent. If the wolves add a shot blocking 3 or a defensive wizard at center, this might make the trade worth it. But by adding Love they really have made what they need to add to be successful very specific.
That said, I still think that the original idea was flawed. I think even in the simplest examination where we compare only Love + Miller vs Mayo and not worry about other aspects of the trade, it was the wrong thing do. Even if
Love + Miller > Mayo
it is still true (in my mind) that
Love < Mayo
Miller < Mayo
I prefer quality over quantity at all times in trades, so whoever gets the best player won. For the rebuilding wolves, this seems even more true. They are better off getting the best player even if the immediate effect is a weaker team, right now they are playing for the future as much as the present.
The other part of my arguement is it's not that I think Love is a terrible player, I just think he's a bad fit for this team. The fact that Love so clearly duplicated Jefferson's natural spot while Mayo would have been a huge improvement in our flawed back-court made the trade that much harder to stomach.
Nate--
I think a dominant defensive center sets up a wonderful 3-into-2 rotation at the 4 and the 5. I disagree that Jefferson is "always" on the floor in such circumstances, but that the flow is more geared to matchups and circumstance (foul situation, who is playing better, etc). If you have 96 minutes to divide among 3 players, that's 32 minutes apiece.
I think that's definately a key point - if Brit is right that the difference between Mayo and Foye is going to be negligible over time, it really does make the trade more balanced. I'm still concerned about starting Jefferson next to Love long term however.
Thanks all for the info and the feedback - I always learn a lot from the input you all give on the site.
andym,
I agree that Big Al, Love, Miller, Gomes, Brewer, Foye and Bassy are the players in the rotation. That is 7 players.
Smith (really unfortunate that we gave him a 2 year deal), Mad Dog, Cardinal and Brown (though at a very small $$) are all guaranteed contracts next year. Brings us to 11. (By the way, Cardinal and Miller become very valuable expiring contracts at the 2009-10 trading deadline - we need to keep both!)
As it stands right now, we are likely to have 4 first round draft choices!! That is way to many - and one of the keys I think is to turn some of those into 2010 /2011 1st round picks. Or maybe turn 2 lower ones into 1 higher one. I can't see us effectively bringing in more than 2 rookies.
Dependent on the salary cap, we may have enough room to sign 2 FA - 1 mid level exception and a another whose salary would be similar to mid level exception $$ amount. If we do draft all 4 1st rounders, we will only have the mid level exception (the cap holds for the draft picks will eat up the rest of the dollars) I don't see any way Taylor goes over the cap and pays luxury tax - which also means we may be a 14 (rather than a 15) man roster.
What I hope for is 2 players - a long 2 (6'7") who can shoot and a legit 5 (7' 250 lbs) who can defend. I think we can get both this summer - 1 in the draft and maybe the other in FA. Added to your 7, that gives us a 9 player rotation that I think could get us close to .500 (assuming Big Al comes back at close to full strength)
Britt:
It would really be great if some stat site would plug in shooting data that shows whether or not a shot goes up off the dribble or with a catch and shoot....or if a player is going left or right and where on the court this is taking place. It's too bad this stuff is kept behind lock and key on sites like Synergy Sports. NBA.com could have this stuff with no problem.
As for your point on Mayo, here's where I think he gets into trouble (and I use that term relatively). There are 3 ways in which any given player can score the ball: 2s, 3s, or foul shots. It's a very rare player that can hit across the board. Even if you can be proficient from 2 out of 3, you have a long future awaiting you in the NBA. Let's pick 6 players: Chris Paul, Mayo, Ben Gordon, Kyle Korver, Dirk, and Hedo. Here is how they all shoot from 2 and 3:
Paul: .477/.348
Mayo: .451/.377
Gordon: .453/.409
Korver: .459/.369
Dirk: .468/.380
Hedo: .371/.372
In terms of net percentages, Mayo fares pretty well. Let's plug in some efficiency rates that deal with the ways in which these guys score. The first number will be FTA/FGA, the 2nd 3PA/FGA, and the 3rd is pts/poss. This will give us a rough idea of how much these guys depend on getting to the line, scoring from beyond the arc, and just how effective they are in putting points up on the board:
Paul: .43/.15/1.06
Mayo: .24/.30/0.97
Gordon: .30/.33/1.04
Korver: .20/.46/1.02
Dirk: .33/.10/1.08
Hedo: .37/.37/0.95
First of all, Dirk is crazy. Here's hoping that Cuban decides to start over and that the Wolves...well, that will never happen. Dirk is one of the most sadly overlooked players in all of basketball. The guy is unbelievably good and may go down as one of the most efficient offensive forces of the past 30-40 years.
Anywho, what we can see here is that out of this group one player really excels at getting to the line: Paul. There are 3 guys (Gordon, Dirk, and Hedo) who get there at an above average rate, and then there are Mayo and Korver who just kind of get to the line every once and a while.
When it comes to relying on the 3 ball, we see that Korver is essentially a reverse-image Paul: he shoots an amazing volume of 3s compared to his FTAs. Does Mayo have a better net 3% than Korver? Yes, but Korver produces a similar rate over a much larger percentage of 3s (adjusted for possession). Hedo is in between Mayo and Korver. He jacks up a lot of 3s and he makes a nice clip of them. He's also huge. Gordon is another overlooked player. Over at Hoopus, I wrote a post about how I thought OJ's ultimate place in the NBA pantheon is to be a player in the Gordon mold:
http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/1/6/710329/the-real-o-j
If he's lucky, this is what he'll become. Gordon gets to the line about as much as he shoots from beyond the arc. He has 332 3pa and 311 fta. When you consider how well he shoots from 2, 3, and at the line, it's pretty hard to overstate just how good the guy is. His 1.04 points/possession is a pretty good representation of just how his across-the-board usefulness plays into actual action.
A lot of people think of Dirk as being a guy who jacks up a ton of 3s. He really doesn't. He only puts up 2.1/game this year. He's good enough from inside the arc to use his height in a more effective manner against smaller 3s, and 4s. Again, he's awesome. I know that Britt mentioned Durant in his column. Durant has a chance to be Dirk squared once he figures out how to play in the league. With his height and length, he can get a shot anywhere he wants. Once he starts to move the show closer to the hoop, the free throws will follow. Moving on...
Mayo started the year by shooting .493 from 2 in Oct/Nov. He did so while shooting 3.94 fta/game. In December he shot .455 from 2 while getting 3.1 fta/game. In Jan he went .449 from 2 while getting to the line 3.5 times/game. This was the primary reason why he went from 23/game to 17/game. In Oct/Nov, he was one of the top 3 2 point shooters in the league. Now, he's moving down the scale while doing nothing in terms of improving his other ways of scoring (1s and 3s) and it's turning him (and will continue to turn him) into a decidedly slightly above average player.
What really will hurt Mayo is that he doesn't really add anything else to the game beyond scoring. He's not a great rebounder, he doesn't generate a lot of turnovers, and with Conley at the point, he's headed down the Randy Foye route more than I think most people realize. (He also has zero chemistry with the team's previous best player.) This is where I think the Love/Mayo trade is, as I called it at the time, highway robbery. Love has value across the board and he has massive amounts of room to improve. Here's a post where I took a look at Mayo and Love's possession-based stats:
http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/1/23/727873/the-importance-of-possessi
Mayo started out his NBA career almost as a fully realized vet. He was shooting nearly 50% from 2, not turning it over a ton, shooting the lights out from 3, and being able to get his shot off whenever he wanted. How exactly is he going to improve into super star status? Unless he learns how to get to the line and score more efficiently while learning how to run the offense (bye, bye Conley), I don't think he makes it there. Love, on the other hand, can improve across the board. From shooting percentage, to strength, to finishing around the rim, to his mid-range jumper, to passing...the guy has a complete package and I think he was the 2nd best player available in the draft behind Beasley. Here's our final draft board:
http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/1/9/701315/revisiting-the-final-08-dr
I kind of screwed the pooch on Westbrook and Alexander, but I think the rest is ok. With Rose and Beasley off the board, the Wolves had a 2 man draft: Love vs. Lopez. They went with Mayo and got lucky with the trade.
Anyway, I think there is a very solid case to be made that the Wolves walked away from this trade with the best player, a solid starter, and off-season assets.
Also, if there are still fans out there who really, really want Mayo, Ben Gordon will be an unrestricted free agent this off-season. I think they'd be better served going after Ramon Sessions, but Gordon will give the team everything Mayo would have next to Foye. Perhaps everything and then some.
I agree: I think Gordon is a best-case scenario for Mayo, and Gordon couldn't be the second-best player on a title contender. I'm not sure how Sessions rates defensively, but his PER numbers are good. I'm also curious about whether Steph Curry can ever play the D that's needed to be a very good PG in the league; from most reports, he's shown the full bag of tricks offensively.
To me, the main upside to Love is that he's making an impact offensively almost solely because of his rebounding. He's also being used in post-up situations a lot more than he should be because that's the worst part of his offensive game. The other skills that seem to be there haven't been utilized consistently yet.
If the Wolves want a combo guard, there will always be opportunities for them. Shoot-first guards without a knack for team play aren't hard to find, and Mayo hasn't proven he can be much beyond that yet.
JAF -- it wasn't all that popular some months ago, but I was a big advocate of limiting KLove's minutes. And more or less, they have been. My kudos to McHale for that.
And for that "legit 5 (7' 250 lbs) who can defend" check out the description of Jerome Jordan at HoopsHype (http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm) followed by the one at DraftExpress (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jerome-Jordan-5160/).
And then there's University Of Tulsa's website: http://www.tulsahurricane.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/jordan_jerome00.html
Whaddya know. From Kingston Jamaica. KG is is favorite player. The Bible is his favorite book. (grin) Jim Stack will be pleased.
That's all I know about the kid, I haven't seen him play. But he's got the size, athleticism, and apparently the work ethic.
If he's available with Utah's or Boston's pick, he would be one of my more preferred choices. I think he has the potential to fill out a 3-man rotation with Jefferson and Love.
As someone who obviously writes quite a bit about hoops in general and the Wolves in particular, I want to emphasize how much time and energy it took S+P to put together that Mayo scoring commentary above.
It enriches me and every reader who comes here. At the very least, I hope all those of you who appreciate his thorough research and informed commentary patronize his site at canishoopus.com, where there is always plenty of similarly thought-provoking, stats-oriented analysis.
Indeed, kudos to S+P.
And to Paging Stanley, my "vision" of next year's Wolves involves making Collins the starting C and keeping Jefferson/Love at the PF almost all the time. If the Jordan kid is anything as advertised, I work him as the center off the bench for a couple years until he can replace Collins (who would go to back up when he *really* gets old and slow). Jefferson and Love together only happens after the Collins/Jordan duo need to sit.
And I keep Gomes, Miller, Brewer and Carney to man the 2/3. I sell Foye down the river, along with whoever/whatever it takes that I haven't named yet (keeping Bassy if I can), for a seriously solid point guard.
But I'm probably just "imagining".
First off, let me agree that S+P did an incredible amount of work for that analysis - as usual. However, I wonder about the line of reasoning that seems to read that since Love is starting off as a worse player than Mayo (except for the one thing he is really good at), then it is only natural that Mayo can't get any better at any part of the game and Love can get better at almost every part of the game => Love is the better player. There are plenty of things Mayo can improve at - first of all his conditioning. When I look at his season I see a great player who got worn down and shut down when other teams adjusted to him being the best player on the team. He can also improve his defense, his playmaking, his rebounding, etc. He might not shoot a better percentage than he did the first month, but if he maintained that over the course of the year that would be pretty amazing too. I do agree if Mayo never improves at all and Love improves the rest of his game significantly, it will be a good deal. I just don't see why that is the only possible or plausible scenario.
levi,
Can't keep Love and Big Al just at 4 almost all the time. Each needs to play close to 35 minutes. Which means that Big Al/KLove need to play 5 at least 20 minutes per game. But I don't think that is a bad thing - I think either one of those guys can do it against most teams (especially their reserves).
Carney and Brewer both can't stay - too redundant in skill set and leaves us without a real shooter at 2/3. (Since Miller has obviously chosen to be a point forward.) Brewer is by far the better defender, so he stays.
Finally, Collins contract expires and I really can't see us resigning him. It needs to be a young 5. I really like the Jerome Jordan suggestion and plan to look him over soon.
Thanks guys. I'd just like to add that I wouldn't think of putting in any of the time or effort if it weren't for the content both above and below the fold on this site. It's the best place to see and be seen in Wolves fan circles and here's hoping it finds a way to continue next season when the first tip goes up.
Caerochren, I guess I'd respond to the Mayo conversation with two things:
1- Players obviously improve after college, but even a year in the NCAA gives us a view of the type of player a guy is against a higher level of competition. When you look at the type of player Love was, he is leaving some skills on the table compared to his college days, namely shooting and passing. When you look at the type of player Mayo was, he's pretty much the same type of player he was in college.
2- There are a limited number of things any player can do during a possession to help his team. Mayo may very well develop into a guy who can rebound better, not turn it over as much, gather more steals, and run the offense. I personally think he has a number of things running against him on all of these points, but that's besides the point. Let's get back to scoring. In order for Mayo to average above 20 ppg, and considering his current FTM/FTA numbers, he will have to score 17 points from the field. Right now he's averaging 16 shots/game with an eFG of .491. In order to make his number with his current shooting percentage, he would have to take more shots. He's making 6.9 shots/game with 1.8 of them coming from beyond the arc. If he wanted to make 17 field points/game with his current numbers he would need to make about 8.4 shots/game. 1.5 more shots/game doesn't sound like a whole lot, but it adds up over time. It becomes even more problematic when you consider what he doesn't already add to the game in terms of production per possession.
In order to become a better and more efficient player, and short of him developing player traits he has shown little signs of developing, he will need to get to the line more to increase his points/possession. The only other way around this is if he shoots nearly 50% from 2 and 40-45% from 3. These are crazy numbers.
What makes the free throw route hard is the same problem that Foye is facing: with Conley and Bassy around, Foye and Mayo are going to get bigger matchups and it will be harder for them to operate closer to the bucket where fouls are won more than they are further away.
S+P you certainly make a good point, my only caveat is that we really need to see each player next year. I'm sure you've heard the common wisdom that the first summer of a pro is the most important, it's the summer that determines how he's going to respond to everything he's encountered his first year. Still you've made clear why you think this will be a greater challenge for Mayo than Love. Let's hope for the wolves that Love responds as you expect.
I would also like to thank you for the civility of your response - I really think it is extraordinary given the amount of work you put into your own website plus the details of your posts here that you accept criticisms of your ideas from fans like me. To describe myself as a casual fan compared to yourself is really an understatement. This is also a reflection on the rest of the posters here and Britt himself, I'm sure we've all been on boards where the simplest discussion is derailed by the poor sportsmanship of the contributors. Thanks all!
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