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On the Ball

The Three-Pointer: Agreeing to Disgrace

Game #70, Home Game #36: Minnesota 90, Oklahoma City 97

Season Record: 20-50

 

1. Nobody Likes A Quitter

Well, we know the limits of the Wolves' endurance. They fought hard for awhile after Al Jefferson went down, but these last four games have been pretty much unwatchable. I'm only going to talk about Sunday's tilt against OKC, and then only because I thought it would provide an interesting snapshot against a team similar in record, who Minnesota smoked by 42 last time they came through the Target Center, but who have steadily improved by adding parts and playing promising kids along the way. I know the Wolves were in the New Orleans game down to the last shot, but the Hornets played horribly and were without 40 percent of their starting lineup. The San Antonio game was openly insulting--Spurs coach Gregg Popovich rested Tim Duncan to get his most valuable player ready for the playoffs, an act of belittlement that should have appealed to some professional pride among the troops in Glen Taylor's franchise. Nope. The Houston game was blissfully blacked out, but afterwards, Rocket players were discussing the contest as a perfunctory W, not even a potential bump in the road.

Everyone knows the Wolves have very little heart left, and are undeserving of respect.

Sunday against the Thunder, the game began in slapstick, with both teams launching airballs and iron-grazers from in-close--there were 15 rebounds in the first 4:40 alone, a pace that, if continued, would have garnered both squads about 75 boards apiece--that put the score at 7-6. Then the Thunder stopped missing while the Wolves kept misfiring and the rout was on. OKC outscored Minnesota by 10 in the first, 8 in the second, and 13 in the third. That's right, the precise egg laid was 84-53 playing at home against an opponent with a record of 19-50. Not a single member of the starting lineup played competently, collectively shooting 30.2% (13-43 FG), 25% from 3pt territory (2-8) and had an assist to turnover ratio of 9/12.

If you want to focus on Minnesota's 37-13 comeback in the 4th period, knock yourself out. The Thunder played old, out-of-shape Malik Rose for 10:50 until he fouled out (he had two fouls in 5:59 before the period started, then four in the fourth). They had a 31 point lead and they are a callow squad that gave most of it away, but they could afford to--they'd allowed Minnesota 2 fast-break points and 10 assists through three periods and 12 fast break points and 8 assists in the 4th quarter alone. They shot 50.8% through three and 22.2% in the 4th. They knew they had the game won and allowed the fearsome fivesome of Bobby Brown, Kevin Ollie, Rodney Carney, Shelden Williams and the combo of Kevin Love (for 9:37) and Craig Smith (2:23) to romp for awhile before subbing Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the boys again to quiet the uprising. Afterward, coach McHale said his players looked glassy-eyed and seemed mentally tired and guessed he should start subbing folks in earlier. Good luck with that.

2. In The Poor House

What was striking today about the two rebuilding teams was how much taller and quicker the Thunder seemed. Part of that has to do with two players Oklahoma City has acquired since the season began: Seven-foot center Nenad Krstic and 6-7 off guard Thabo Sefolosha. Both have been integral to the team's relatively sterling success of late--the Thunder at 7-9 when Krstic starts and 6-6 when Sefolosha starts. Krstic was signed to an offer sheet of $15.8 over the next three years, very close to all of the mid-level exception. According to the shamsports.com salary charts, the Thunder will be paying Krstic about the same amount the Wolves are paying on the buy-out to Juwan Howard's contract for this year, and about a million less than the Wolves are paying Jason Collins. It's about as much as the combined salaries of Mark Madsen and Craig Smith, and about as much as the Wolves are paying this year on the buy-out of Troy Hudson's deal. You get the idea.

That's all spilt, soured milk, of course, that has been wiped up and thrown away, although it continues to stink when you watch Krstic go out and do his thing. He's hardly a godsend, but he is a guy who can stick the midrange jumper, and rebound and defend in a mediocre manner--in other words, better than any center the Wolves have on the roster. Should the Wolves have tried to sign him? Well, probably not, for the Hudson/Howard/Smith-Madsen/Collins reasons stated above, and because attendance is rotten at the Target Center while Oklahoma City is in the first pangs of an NBA franchise relationship--under similar circumstances, the Wolves set a league attendance record at the Metrodome.

While we give the Minnesota braintrust a mulligan on Krstic (if only because their past screwups poisoned the salary well too thoroughly), the Thunder's acquisition of Sefolosha is exactly the sort of bold stroke that would behoove Jim Stack--who used to work for the Bulls, Sefolosha's former employer--and the crew to execute. As announced, the deal was for the Thunder to give the Bulls the worst of their boatload of draft picks this summer, which turns out to be San Antonio with the 26th overall pick. Now the Wolves likewise will have three or four picks, and have publicly said they can't keep all of them, would in fact like to package one or two for another commodity. Well, how about a 6-7 defensive specialist in the backcourt? Since the Bulls were more interested in shedding Sefolosha's salary than in securing a quality player in return --they'd just acquired John Salmons, Tim Thomas and Brad Miller--they probably would have taken the Celtics' first-rounder owed the Wolves (high 20s, higher than San Antonio's), especially if a contingency was that they'd get the Utah pick in the low 20s if the Jazz played well enough to make it transferable to Minnesota this year (it is top 22 protected).

Again according to the shamsports.com website, Sefolosha makes $1.9 M this year, $2.8M next year and a $3.8M qualifying offer the year after that. None of these would put the Wolves over the luxury cap. (The closest would be this year.) One might argue that Sefolosha is little more than a Rodney Carney clone with a longer contract. The two are both listed at 6-7, 215, and are a month apart in age. But Sefolosha happens to be much more consistent as a defender, is a higher-percentage shooter (albeit not from three-point range) and is a superior passer and rebounder. Bottom line, Sefolosha is simply a more mature player. Okay, but what about Corey Brewer? Yes, there may be some redundancy there. But it remains to be seen if the 6-9 Brewer can return from a significant knee injury well enough to play the off-guard slot, where his string-bean 188-pound frame is less apt to get beat-up, but which requires the kind of quickness that is no longer guaranteed--and which Sefolosha already possesses.

I'm sure there are smart cap people who will continue to counsel that the Wolves braintrust should keep its powder dry. But if the draft of all drafts comes and goes and the Wolves can't leverage the maximum value from their wealth of first-rounders, remember Sefolosha as one who got away.

3. The Shortness of Foye

I apologize for what has become a relentlessly negative trey--at least I haven't bitched about Mike Miller. But it needs to be said that perhaps the biggest cause for concern the past few weeks has been the regression of Randy Foye. During the halycon days of January, when the Wolves were spurting to a 10-2 mark, there was a legitimate question of whether the Wolves' best player was Jefferson or Foye. Freed from his point guard duties, Foye had truly blossomed, confounding defenses by hitting long-range jumpers with regularity and then defying the close-outs with penetration that results in layups for either himself or a teammate. Okay, we all thought, so he isn't a point guard, but if you let him settle into a rhythm, he is a dynamic playmaker out of the backcourt and an ideal complement to Jefferson.

Then scouts began to suss out Foye's marvelous array of attributes and correctly noted that the best corrective was to thwart him with size. As a 6-4 off-guard, he suddenly had to contend with the Mike Dunleavys, Joe Johnsons, Brandon Roys, Shane Battiers, Rasual Butlers and Thabo Sefoloshas of the world. In other words. a lot of teams regularly deploy a two-guard who is at least 2-3 inches taller than Foye and surmounting them has taken a toll, as has Jefferson's absence, which has waylaid Foye's complementary game more than anyone on the roster but Kevin Love. Paired with a small backcourt mate in Telfair, and a generally tiny frontcourt with the "6-10" Love in the pivot and smaller folks at the forwards, the Wolves can be ground down in the half court, yet aren't so athletic that it is automatically to their advantage to run uptempo. The Wolves in general and Foye in particular seem to do best with playing a controlled running game, exploiting mistakes for their transition points.

But whether it is fatigue, or injury (he was recently sidelined with a bad hip that McHale says is still bothering him), or the psychological sapping of losing, Randy Foye has regressed, significantly enough to compel questions about whether that January dazzle was a flash in the pan, the outlier in an otherwise desultory season.

The make-or-break miss that ended the New Orleans game was the latest in a series of frustrations for Foye. While he still ranks 23rd in the NBA for 4th quarter points with average of  5.2, it is due as much to the volume of his shots as ice water in his veins--his shooting percentage for the quarter is 41.3%, just a titch better than his 40.7% season mark (and needless to say, neither figure is exactly deadeye shooting). His most accurate quarter is the second, where he cans 42.3% of his shots, often after getting a rest early in the period. As I mentioned last post, Foye also gets his shot blocked a higher percentage of time on his inside drives to the hoop than any player in the NBA--19%. Consequently, he's most productive from three point territory, with 4.5 points per game outside on 30% of his FGA, versus 4.6 ppg on midrange two-pointers which comprise 41% of his FGA and just 4 ppg on the 29% of his field goal attempts that result in inside drives to the hoop.

All this points to the fact that Foye needs to stroke the trey and be reliable enough scoring and setting people up in other ways to justify steady minutes at off-guard--because his defense of taller foes can't justify it. This isn't meant to denigrate or write off Foye--after going hot and mostly cold on him for his first two years, his December-January bloom, and the altered notion that he wasn't getting the point-guard duties rammed down his, and thus our, throat, enabled me to appreciate his athleticism, which rivals Carney as the best on the team. There are plays where Foye will sky for a rebound that drops your jaw with the elevation he creates. Yet Foye's slow but sure diminishment in the six weeks since Jefferson's injury demonstrates that he remains a complementary player--a piece to a successful puzzle if the combinations are right, but not the cornerstone Wolves' fans had dared to imagine during the winning streak. Foye will be 26 when he enters his 4th NBA training camp next fall. He'll come in as an intriguing, potentially beguiling player, one capable of teasing at stardom. But bottom line, he'll continue to have a lot to prove, even as the sand keeps draining from his hourglass.

 

14 Reader Comments

stop-n-pop (not verified)12:01am
Mar 23

Foye or Bassy have to be on the bench next year. I personally think the question to who that should be is obvious at this point. Foye brings nothing to the team when not scoring. His time at the point in the last few games has been beyond brutal. He was having trouble running the frickin pick and roll against Houston. His defense was consistently a liability. It was embarrassing. That being said, they need a big guard and I suppose it will be a net gain if either one is replaced with someone around 6'6". I'm starting to talk myself into Tyreke Evans or Demar Derozan even though I know Curry or Lawson will be the better players anywhere out of the Wolves' system.

I think you hit on the most frustrating thing of all about the difference between the Thunder and the Wolves: their front offices. OKC has an honest-to-Pete real GM and the Wolves have a bunch of used car salesmen. If it's not Thabo, it will be someone else. It will be beyond frustrating to watch them out draft the Wolves this year.

NBA-in-Buffalo (not verified)07:57am
Mar 23

Britt -- No need to apologize for the "relentlessly negative trey": I think I speak for most of us when I say *thank you* for continuing to say something about this collection of, minus Jefferson, 6th men thru 12s.

A.K. Agikamik (not verified)09:27am
Mar 23

Effort and improvement. Those were the objectives for my son's 5th grade team this season. After a 1-14 first half, their second half was 9-7 including a 3rd place in their biggest tourney.

Effort and improvement from the players combined with better coaching strategy produced superior "results" for that group of ten-year-olds.

The only additional complexity for the Wolves is talent - a front office function.

Its hard to find a bright spot in the Wolves organization right now. No effort, no improvement, no enhanced coaching and no confidence whatsoever in the front office.

Result? The Wolves have played the bulk of five months. In only two of those months have they won at least three games. January and December (when they won three). If they can find a way to win one of their remaining five in March, we could add March to that illustrious list. I'm not holding my breath.

Glen's "straight talk" ads seem like a cruel joke talking about the effort the young players are putting forth. The Early Bird Season Ticket offers for next year are good through July 1. That's days after the draft. A good draft is necessary, but far from sufficient. Yep, Al and Corey will be back - but its overhaul time. Glen? Hello?

levi09:36am
Mar 23

Have the Wolves run out of McHale's supply of "professional" Kool-Aid? Mercifully, I have not noticed Kevin making that pronouncement for a few weeks.

As cruel as it sounds, NBA-in-Buffalo's description of the current crop of players as 6th thru 12th men is more than defensible, perhaps even entirely accurate. Now, my own sugar-laced artificial fruit flavored drink has me believing that such a group of players can be molded into an effective, reasonably competitive unit. But I think it should be obvious by now that Kevin McHale isn't the guy to do the job. Obvious, even, to Glen Taylor.

What is left in this season for the players? Only the opportunity to prove that they are worthy of remaining in this league.

Just A Fan10:36am
Mar 23

I think you really need to look at this season as 3, rather distinct periods.

The Wittman period which, in my mind, is 1 mistake that truly can be laid to rest at the feet of McHale and Taylor. Wrong coach at the wrong time. And to extend the contract - argh. There was not going to be anything good happening from this period as Wittman had a demonstrated history (see Cleveland) of being unable to mix developing players and veterans into a winning mix. So, I discount this part of the season other than cheering its ultimate end.

The McHale period showed that, while we have some glaring holes, we did indeed have some talented players that could play competitively (at least against most of the NBA). Roles were getting defined and players were starting to excel in those roles.

The Post Jefferson Injury period - just throw it away. Too many players forced to play outside their roles (and their abilities). Reminds me a lot of the 1996-97 Spurs - except the Spurs had far more talent (and playoff experience) around Robinson than we had around Jefferson.

So, this summer comes, and the franchise deciding questions is:

Will Jefferson come back to be the player he was prior to the injury?

For if you say, yes, then you can use the McHale period as your base, knowing that you need 2 things (a big 2 who can shoot, a big 5 that can defend). Use up all those assets to get those 2 (draft, trade, etc.) and watch it grow. It has the basis for a contending team.

But if you say, no, than the Post Jefferson period needs to be your reference - in which case - I hate to say it - we need to blow the thing up a 2nd time. With the exception of Love (a solid 3-7 player on a championship team), no one else is a build around player.

My personal take - the answer is "unknown". Jefferson will NOT have done anything basketball related prior to the draft. It will be impossible to fairly assess his recovery. So, our front office needs to hedge. We can afford to use a few assets this summer (our best pick, maybe 1 more, plus expiring contracts) to grab some assets. But we also need to exchange current assets for future - just in case Jefferson's recover stalls and we need to start over.

This is far from the sexy off season that most of us fans want to see. But I think you should get prepared for a more modest off season.

Nate11:41am
Mar 23

I've never liked or enjoyed January, and now as a Wolves fan I detest January. January makes me vomit.

If not for January, McHale would definitely be out. If not for January, Stack and Hoiberg would at least have a higher probability of being out. If not for January, Glen Taylor would not be able to see yet another silver lining on the sinking ship. If not for January, Foye would obviously be a bench player, not a potential starter in a slump.

January was the worst thing that could have happened to this organization. It was just bad luck, a combination of hot players and a schedule featuring injured stars and NBA dregs.

This club cannot afford to make decisions based on what happened in January. It's one month, it is not enough data. The rest of the data, however *special* because of Big Al's injury, point to ineptitude on the roster and in the front office.

The massive stench of a front office in way over its collective heads is staring Glen Taylor square in the eyes and he is going to once again look down at his (expensive) shoes, step to the side, and continue walking forward directly into the abyss that is NBA mediocrity. Few will follow him.

malachy (not verified)01:05pm
Mar 23

once the wolves are free of mchale's contract mistakes (mentioned above) and have cap space and draft picks to utilize, do they then fear using those draft picks and cap room slots and such as commodities to acquire proven players?

if they draft a couple of very good nineteen year olds this summer, and they're surrounded by incompetent twenty-five year olds and last-year-of-contract thirty-five year olds, then you're not going to improve short term OR long term.

it will be interesting to see how the wolves play their hand in the next, two years. they won't pull a mchale and throw in first rounders as parting gifts, but will they go too far in the opposite direction and keep them just to keep them?

caerochren (not verified)03:21pm
Mar 23

I think I agree with Nate's assesment of the middle period - it was fool's gold that should not be a basis for hope. Of course, watching this team for twenty years now has worn down my optimism a bit.

Andy G07:33pm
Mar 23

This has been a brutal stretch of basketball. I'm not sure there's a bigger gap between a team's best and second best player than the one in Minnesota, other than LeBron in Cleveland. We go from mediocre to worst in the entire league without Big Al.

Hopefully Al and Brew come back at full strength and we add some talent in the draft and trading.

caerochren (not verified)08:53pm
Mar 23

Al is a great scorer - but he's not a great offensive player. And he's a less than mediocre to bad (to terrible on his truly bad days) defensive player - he's not a savior. Losing him turned the team from bad to terrible. Oy, I'm in a sour mood.

andym (not verified)09:32pm
Mar 23

Lets hope the Wolves do not offer up a long term contract to Carney. I mean, he would be an ok player to have as your number 9 or 10 but lets not go overboard with him. Also, I think we really need to be open to trading anyone on this roster. Foye, Jefferson, even Love although that would be the one player I would not mind having around. But, then again, who would want anyone of this collection of players besides using them for cap relief. I've been a fan for 20 years and this is about as low as it gets.

I know I know...Jefferson and Brewer are injured but still.....give me a break.

I'm done for the year and will start paying attention again during draft time. Thank you all for this blog. Its the one thing I enjoy about Wolves BB. Alright...on to that fourth whisky and coke.

H (not verified)10:57pm
Mar 23

If I weren't already sufficiently depressed, watching Harden lay eggs during his tourney burn, fully aware that he is one of the supposed bright spots in the draft, left me with little reason to believe that ANY front office, much less this one, could salvage our dignity this coming draft.

Britt, you are a saint for even putting pen to paper, so to speak, while the on-court product is so unquestionably repugnant. Thank you for such an unduly thoughtful set of responses on such a disappointing season.

levi10:39am
Mar 25

So this morning's Strib has a piece on Foye. The gist is that the young man seems to be having difficulty with the realities of physical play in the NBA, his injuries, accepting that he will be the target of double teams, and that opponents will be working to deny him the ball. We read of Kevin McHale sitting next to him at his locker, invoking the legend of Michael Jordan and how hard he had to work just to get the ball.

What I gathered from the article is the overall immaturity of "4th Quarter Boy" and how much it seems that selecting him with hopes of being a point guard in this league was just so much fantasy.

College Wolf11:17am
Mar 25

I thought Nate had such a great comment that I expounded upon it in much more detail. Check it out if ya'll want:

http://www.twolvesblog.com/200903242019/minnesota-timberwolves/articles/...

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