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The Three-Pointer: Size Matters
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UPDATE: Jefferson out for extended period, almost certainly the rest of the year, with a torn ACL.
I thought about a separate post for this, but c'mon, what is anybody going to say? Timberwolves fans know what a big blow this is, and we can parse silver linings--huge absences bring forth compensations in an attempt to fill the void, the top-10 protected pick will be secured, etc. etc.. But the cold fact remains that Jefferson was the best player on the ballclub and, especially in light of Randy Foye's recent struggles and Kevin Love's huge upgrade when paired with Jefferson, it isn't even a close competition. Sure, they'll be some surprises, but Wolves wins will be on the order of how the Hornets felt last night taking a game without CP3, Chandler, MoPete and an ejected West because Sean Marks and Rasual Butler went off for career games. The ballclub will be "building" without one of its cornerstones in place.
More to the point: How does a large-legged, 265-pound athlete come back from a torn knee ligiment? On the plus side, Jefferson's game has never been about foot-speed or leaping ability. On the down side, that fancy footwork of his isn't strictly mental; it requires a lot of pivots and twists, and a sharp quickness at a certain moment. Bottom line, will Jefferson ever be "good as new"? That's the sobering question confronting this franchise. But we won't know for many months, and idle punditry feels pretty self-indulgent at the moment.
Consequently, I'll have a trey on Wednesday following the Raptors game and then take the All Star break off and be back in time for what could be an intriguing trading deadline in Minnesota.
Game #49, Road Game #25: Houston 107, Minnesota 90
Game #50, Road Game #26: New Orleans 101, Minnesota 97
Season Record: 17-33
1. Will The Future Ever Be Now?
The refusal of coach Kevin McHale to play any of his admittedly lousy centers even 15 minutes a night--a collective five apiece for Madsen, Collins and Booth?--is really starting to aggravate, as the Wolves get ground into dust in Houston on Saturday and sliced and diced by some hustling scrubs in New Orleans on Sunday. The combo of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love are not world-beaters, especially on the defensive end, but they are far superior to any other option Minnesota can now pair up in the frontcourt. Teams that double or triple-team Jefferson with Love on the other side of the lane better block the shot--no matter who is shooting it--because Love will get the offensive board. And teams that concentrate on boxing Love off the glass--I'm looking at you, Boston Celtics--better count on Jefferson running roughshod even moreso that his beastly norm at the offensive end. Bottom line, both are loads, in very different ways, down in the low post, and consequently are a dynamic, complementary force (on offense, at least) together in the front court.
General manager Kevin McHale envisioned this could happen. After acquiring Jefferson from Boston in the KG deal, he gushed about Big Al's menagerie of low post moves like a proud papa. We'd never heard so much gushing from the Lone Iron Ranger about a player who hadn't retired in the 80s. But then GM McHale pulls off another huge swap on draft night and lands Love, and the gushing starts anew, about what a great kid with an unbelievable motor and knack for rebounding he's just obtained. Who's the big guy? some sensible people wondered. How are those two going to play with each other? McHale just twinkled and kept gushing.
Okay. At the offensive end, we see your point. Jefferson and Love are formidable, and perhaps two-thirds of a strong--meaning contending--frontcourt rotation if a dynamic defensive-oriented big is added. That's an exciting future to contemplate. So why aren't you grooming it? Why does coach McHale lack the vision of GM McHale?
Craig Smith as the starting power forward was bad enough. But now that Smith is hurt, rather than give any burn to Madsen, Collins or Blount, we get Brian Cardinal or Ryan Gomes as the power forward, meaning Love has to play the pivot when Jefferson rests. Meaning combo minutes for Jefferson and Love are minimized. Meaning that the Wolves get thumped down low *and* don't groom the future, while we get the shit sandwich of admiring the grit of the guaranteed-to-be-departed Cardinal and the he'll-try-to-anything-you-ask-of-him Gomes under thankless circumstances.
Now it may be that the knee injury Jefferson suffered in the final minute of the loss to the Hornets makes this moot--losing Jefferson for any significant period of time would be an obvious disaster for this franchise right now. But since nobody knows the severity as of this writing, let's continue making the brief for why Jefferson and Love need to play together. Let's get specific, with statistics.
Saturday night in Houston, Jefferson and Love were paired together a total of 23:38--nearly half the game. During that period they were plus +7, meaning in the 24:22 they weren't paired, the Wolves were minus -24. Jefferson scored 28 of his 36 points in that 23:38, giving him 8 in the 14:33 Love was on the pine. (Love had only 4 points for the night, two apiece with and without Jefferson.) Love without Jefferson was minus -10; Jefferson without Love was minus -14.
Sunday night in New Orleans, Jefferson and Love played together for a grand total of 17:15. During that period they were plus +4, meaning in the 30:45 they weren't paired the Wolves were minus -8. Jefferson without Love was plus +2 in 20:45, but Love without Jefferson was minus -10 in just 10:00 of play, scoring just two of his 12 points when he didn't have Jefferson magnetizing defenders away from him. As usual, Jefferson likewise was more proficient with Love's rebounding prowess to distract defenders, getting 14 in his 17:15 with Love and 11 in his 20"46 without him.
But where coach McHale really blew it was not giving Love and Jefferson any time together in the 4th period. Nada. Jefferson's 7:13 was 4th on the team in 4th quarter minutes, behind Foye and Miller's 12:00 and Gomes's 7:40. Love's 4:19 tied him with Rodney Carney for 7th; behind the folks just mentioned, Bassy Telfair's 6:46 and Brian Cardinal's 5:13. This grand strategy resulted in the Wolves being outscored 17-25 in the period, jacking up 11 treys in their 24 shots (they made one) and committing 11 fouls that sent New Orleans to the foul line 17 times (only 4 of them were the result of end-of-game foul situations). Oh, and Jefferson didn't score in the 4th quarter. Nor Love.
How do you manage your rotation so that your two best big men--both clearly power forwards--split minutes at *center* and thus never play together in the fourth quarter? You can talk to me all you want about needing someone out by the three point line for both James Posey and Peja Stojakovic. I say let Posey or Peja team up with Sean Marks to try and keep Love off the glass and Jefferson out of the low block at the same time. I mean, with Tyson Chandler and Chris Paul shelved due to injury and David West (formerly one of my favorite players, currently on probation) deservedly ejected for a vicious and spiteful foul on Mike Miller, the Wolves just maybe could have dictated the matchups or made the Hornets pay for not adjusting. Or did coach McHale forget all the things that GM McHale was gushing about?
2. And Pint-Sized In The Backcourt To Boot
The hands-down biggest reason for the Wolves' January surge was the confidence and comfort demonstrated by Randy Foye at the off-guard positon. A contender for the biggest cause of Minnesota's February swoon is a suddenly overwhelmed Foye, gassed by too many minutes and flummoxed by the bigger two-guards he now will inevitably encounter. People talk about the rookie wall, but Foye is entering unprecedented territory in terms of his own workload. He's already started more games than in the previous two years of his pro career combined, and, if his current minutes-per-game pace holds, will set a career high for court time in Minnesota's second game back from the all star break. As it is, he's already logged 1803 minutes this year, versus 1879 his rookie season and 1259 in his injury-truncated sophomore campaign. That time has taken its toll. Foye sank at least half his shot attempts in 11 of the 15 games from December 20 to January 13--and not once in the ten games since then. In those 15 games when he was burning up the twine, Foye eclipsed the 40-minute mark just 4 times and logged less than 34 minutes 6 times. In the ten games that he's been too pooped to pop since then, he's logged at least 40 minutes in seven of them, and never less than Sunday's 34:45.
On top of the added workload are bigger matchups. In three of the last four games, Foye has worked to get his off his shot against 6-9 Mike Dunleavy, 6-8 Tracy McGrady and 6-7 Rasual Butler, and would have had to contend with 6-7 All Star Joe Johnson if the Atlanta guard hadn't been sidelined with an injury. And when he's not trying to score and be scored upon versus giant two-guards, Foye has been swung back to the bad old days at the point due to Telfair's gimpy thigh. Never has it been more apparent that Foye is toast than Sunday night, as Butler--a decent but below-average two-guard--rang up 23 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists in 39:35 while Foye was held to 10 points (4-15 FG, matching Butler field goal attempts with five fewer makes), 1 rebound and 2 assists in 34:45.
Here's an idea: Call Mike Miller's bluff and make him the backup point guard to Telfair 15 minutes per night. From what we've seen of Miller's ball-handling and court vision, he's not that far (if at all) behind Foye in those aspects of the PG repertoire. Plus a little time being forced to set up the offense and sling the rock might make Miller yearn to break out and launch a couple. We can only hope. And yes, I know he's slowly beginning to look for his own shot again. But still not nearly enough. As for the notion of Miller having to defend the opposing point guard, well, rotate him in with Carney and let Rodney do it, or use Miller's length on the perimeter to good advantage and run a zone every now and then.
What you can't keep doing is abetting your pint-sized frontcourt with a pint-sized backcourt. On Sunday, Butler, Devin Brown and Antonio Daniels were fighting for the chance to post up either Foye or Telfair, who stands under six feet. Daniels' size advantage over Bassy (4 inches) was even more pronounced than Butler's over Foye (3 inches). Not coincidentally, the Hornets backcourt duo shot 14-24 FG from the floor and had 10 assists and zero turnovers, versus Telfair-Foye's 9-26 FG and 8 assists versus 4 turnovers. Harken back to Foye forcing MVP candidate Chris Paul into a game-changing turnover in the two teams' previous meeting 3 weeks ago and you'll see how badly Foye has flagged.
3. Parting Shots
If I was in a *really* contrary mood, I would have entitled one of the points in my trey, "Al Jefferson is Overrated." He's not, of course, but as we all properly deify him for his astounding ability to put the ball in the hole, it bears noting that his primary defensive assignment also generally has a pretty good night. Nobody can realistically find fault with a 36-point, 22-rebound, 4-steal, 4-assist, 2-block game against the Sino leviiathan Yao Ming, but is it too churlish to point out that if Yao had shot 4-12 FG more from the field he would have matched Al's 16-30FG, or that even while Jefferson was outrebounding Yao 22-6, his smallball squad was getting pounded 51-39 overall on the boards (and you wonder why I holler for a center). On Sunday, Sean Marks went off for 18 points and 5 rebounds in 24:07, most of it matched up against Jefferson. What this means is that Jefferson is a great player with a glaring flaw. Was he less deserving of All Star selection than Yao or Amare Stoudemire? No. not in my opinion. But it's sad that no one talks about the fact that none of those three guys really play quality defense, which is why they aren't around long (if at all) in the postseason.
Jefferson had another yelling jag at his teammates on Sunday. First it was Love (presumably) letting his man get free for an uncontested layup. Then it was Telfair not fighting off a pick in time to prevent an open three pointer. At least that's what I assume Jefferson was demonstrably yelling at. The play before he blistered Love, his man--Ryan Bowen of all people-- had waltzed in for a layup past him, so perhaps there was pent-up frustration. And on the bawling out of Telfair, I can only assume that he felt Telfair didn't defend the pick and roll the way the scheme was set--Bassy left the big to chase the point guard just as Jefferson was likewise running out (didn't matter: Daniels hit the shot over both of them). If these were indeed blown assignments by Love and Telfair, I understand the man's frustration. But from a leadership perspective, Jefferson needs to understand the impact of his words--as the man atop the pecking order--on his less fortunate cohorts. Telfair was so rattled by the scolding that he couldn't even maintain his dribble going down to get the last shot of the half.
Meanwhile, Kevin Love actually plays low post defense that covers for his teammates. When Foye lost Butler on an out-of-bounds play in the corner, Love rotated over hard and deterred penetration. He likewise showed hard and stopped Devin Brown on a pick and roll, and drew a charge on Peja by seizing position in transition. He's more undersized than Jefferson--Yao absolutely toyed with him--but he already pays more attention and has a better understanding of the defensive chain of reactions than Jefferson.
A hot night for Ryan Gomes Sunday. The Barometer his 5-6 3ptFG while his teammates were clanking at 3-21 from behind the arc. That includes an 1-4 performance from outside by Mike Miller, who went 2-6 FG overall. For whatever reason, Miller o n the court was the kiss of death for Minnesota this weekend: He was a team worst minus -31 versus Houston and a team-worst minus -10 versus New Orleans. He does seem to be looking for his shot just a little more, however, and that is a very good thing.
It's too bad Miller and McCants can't exchange demeanors on the court. How helpful would it be if Miller had more of Shaddy's "I'm goin' for mine" attitude toward stringing together points, while McCants flipped into "facilitator to a fault" mode and utlized the sharp passing skills he occasionally flashes. With the trading deadline looming in less than two weeks, one wonders if McCants was briefly showcased.
50 Reader Comments
Is the not playing the centers we have more of Madsen shooting threes at the end of the year, before KG left?
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A dumb question perhaps, but for some reason I thought you might know Britt, or one of the regulars here: For years I've watched Wolves broadcast and this woman sits 3 or 4 rows behind the Wolves bench. She looks like the logo on Mrs Butterworth syrup. She has hair pulled back, and the hair towards her face forms a silver hallo. Kudos to her for steadfast loyalty.
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Where is Spencer Tollackson, if this is going to be another play for draft picks, or to ensure the Clippers pick, why not give Spencer a whirl? Where is he now, Europe, or working for a living?
It's frustrating to watch Jefferson without Love out there at this point but they're simply not going to play Love more than 30mpg. It will be really interesting to see how they accomplish this if Big Al is out for an extended period of time.
"it's sad that no one talks about the fact that none of those three guys really play quality defense..."
Considering Amare's off year and the trade rumors focusing on him, his defensive weakness seems to be all over the news. But his offensive talent has obscured that particular flaw for years. I wonder if there's a personal +/- stat kept anywhere - that would show the player's averages and the averages of his assignment? Might be interesting to see if Al Jefferson averages 23pts and 11rebs and his man scores 18 and collects 9.
* Britt, I hope you're right on fatigue being the major factor behind Foye's troubles. He had a 15-game stretch of brilliant play where I thought he had permanently taken a giant step forward in production. Jefferson badly needs an offset in the backcourt that is just as likely to drop 20+ on an opponent. That's when we're at our best.
* If Jefferson is out for some extended time, it will be very interesting to see the impact it has on our offensive flow and defensive effectiveness. Although I'm not saying we're going to parallel the Elton Brand situation in Philly (where it appears Philly is better off without him), perhaps we won't be as bad off without him as we might think.
* I suggest we reach into the D-League for a youngish, active big man. How much worse could he be than Booth, Collins, or Madsen? What do we have to lose?
While my fingers and toes are crossed that we won't have to endure any extended time without Jefferson to carry the offensive load, I think it's safe to assume that you don't rush your franchise player back when you are sixteen games under .500. As such, we'll probably see at bare minimum some reduction in minutes for our favorite matador, potentially even games without him.
Obviously this impacts the rotation, Love in particular. What will be as interesting (and as welcome) to me as any bump in Love's minutes (say to a little over 30) would be a significant change in the way Love is being utilized on the offensive end. If worse comes to worse and Al is out or hampered for any length of time, it would be great to see what Love has to offer if we would actually run plays for him.
Finally, I have to say I cringe at the prospect of what might transpire (both on the court and on this blog!) if Mike Miller's reticence to look to score extends into a potentially less Al-centric phase of the season.
Andy H--
I don't know "Mrs. Butterworth" personally, but along with "Coach" slapping his program at courtside at the opposite end, she is the Wolves' most steadfast fan. I think she might have back problems--she frequently gets up and stretches and walks around--but at 7:05 I know where she'll always be when there's a home game. We occasionally say hi to each other as we cross paths.
Don't think I can buy your conspiracy theory. More likely S+P is right, and that this is a Twins-like desire to protect a young kid. Okay, but if that's why you're punting your chances of winning, why not at least make those precious Love minutes a viable prep for the future by making them occur alongside Jefferson. Or is a Jefferson-Love frontcourt *not* in the Wolves' long-range plans and they anticipate a trade or platoon ad infinitum? I mean, what we are really talking about here to groom the future is giving Madsen-Collins-Booth minutes at the 5 instead of Cardinal or Gomes (or Smith, when he returns) minutes at power forward. As Jon Lovitz used to say on SNL, "Is that so wrong?"
Big Al needs to keep his mouth shut regarding his teammates defense. If not, I suggest we force him to watch his pick and roll defense Saturday night against Alston. He left Telfair out to dry 3 times in a row, letting Alston shoot uncontested 16 footers. Big Al was 5 ft away from him! My grandma, shooting her patented gramma shot, would have scored with that defense.
And while I am ranting, I would just once like to see Big Al hustle back for a defensive rebound the way he runs out on the break for the chance of an offensive rebound.
As you so readily point out, the Houston game demonstrated once again the need for a long 2 and a legit 7' 5. I am somewhat puzzled by the reluctance to play Collins/Booth/Madsen in Smith's absence. We had a rather solid rotation going prior to Smith's injury. I would have though that, subbing in one of the bench 5's for Smith, would have allowed McHale to keep the basics of the rotation going. But with what McHale is doing now, we have 4-5 players playing in a different rotation. If you look close, you can see that the chemistry is just not the same as it was 2 weeks ago.
It will be interesting to see what happens now roster wise. We have 4 out injured (Smith, Ollie, Brewer and Big Al), 3 5's who aren't going to play, and a dog housed McCants. That leaves us with 7 players, not one over 6'9" tall (being generous to Love and Cardinal) I get the feeling that Taylor is again in the save money mode as Booth should have been released weeks ago to sign a back up point to replace Ollie. But that would have cost money (salary and luxury tax). I am really interested to see what Taylor does here as the team looks like it will be extremely short handed for several weeks. I think it will speak volumes as to how this team will be managed in the future regarding the trade offs between $$$ and winning.
I do not want to see Mike Miller play point guard. Period. The last thing we need is to encourage him to further distance himself from his primary role (shoot the ball!!) and let him gravitate towards secondary roles, which quite frankly, he is not all that good at doing.
Finally, count me in the minority as one who would like to see Love play his 25 minutes the rest of the season. Frankly, he underestimated what was needed to be physically ready to play in the NBA and did not do the work this summer. You just can't make that up during the season - it is too much of a grind. Even now in games where he is pushed to 30 minutes, his effectiveness starts to drop. He has learned and will certainly be ready next year. But let's just let him have great success playing 25 and build his confidence this year. After all, what difference does it make? I am not planning on buying playoff tickets this year.....
Regarding McCants recent playing time, and whether he's being showcased, from the Daily Dime on ESPN:
• Interest remains high in Minnesota sharpshooter Mike Miller, but NBA front-office sources say Rashad McCants is the swingman being shopped hardest by the Wolves.
It will be interesting to see how the lack of depth plays out before the trade deadline. If Al goes down for an extended period of time, do they close ranks and go status quo or do they move what they can knowing that wins are out of the question and that this is all about next year right now? McCants can be moved but McCants + Miller = roughly $14.5 mil they can bring back in. They still have Pekovic sitting there with 2 draft picks (Boston and Utah) that can be moved. They're thin right now but they still are in a solid position to make some moves, especially with all of the injuries around the league and the Suns looking to go super nova.
SNP,
If Big Al is out for any length of time, I am betting strongly on the status quo. Not that I would support that strategy - it is just what I am betting they do.
Without Big Al, the danger of finishing above 10 in the standing is gone, meaning that we will have our pick (and not the Clippers). I think they hold tight to all the assets (great assets as you have pointed out) and look at being a big draft night player. Why? Because it gives them 5 months to make sure that Big Al and Brewer are recovered. It makes a big difference in what the needs are/are not depending how you answer that question and something that is not going to be clear next week before the trading deadline. (Obviously, I am assuming Big Al has a more serious (6-8 week or more) injury.)
JAF and S+P--
Great stuff, as usual. I'm gone much of the day on other assignments, but just wanted to say that it's nice to leave the conversation in such capable hands around here, with the regular contributors (you know who you are). And if you get bored here, there's always canishoopus.com, S+P's valuable site.
I think Rashad's window to return to the rotation has pretty much closed. He just either can't or won't see the importance of ball movement.
Foye has hit a slump, but I'm a firm believer in the mutual fund theory -- past has no bearing on future. He'll snap out of it. He'll have great games and awful games. In other words, he is what he is. But I'm glad that this string of poor shooting games hasn't made him more tentative.
If Miller can't be that other backcourt scorer, then they need somebody else at the 2 who can light it up.
Britt, what did you make of Bassy's games the last couple of nights? Turnovers are down, assists are up, shots are falling at a slightly higher rate, including contested layups and floaters.
Granted that was a pretty big goof at the end last night, but, on the balance, I think he continues to well. In both games, he led all starters in +/-, which wouldn't mean as much if he wasn't also playing big minutes.
And his defense on that last play was really good. Marks shouldn't have been in position for an uncontested dunk.
If Al is down for a long time, I'm still optimistic that the team can win games. A Collins-Madsen platoon at the five will give the team a different kind of look on defense.
It will be hard to make up for Al's 25 points. Either Miller or Foye will have to step up and be big-time scorers (both have it in them) and the bigs will have to set a lot of high screens for Bassy so he can drive and dish, kick it out, or get to the line more.
Finally, can somebody explain what a "two-for-one" is? For some reason, I never noticed the term until this season.
Wolves lose, Wolves lose, Wolves lose! I know the homers can't enjoy it, but it was an invigorating learning experience for the Icefish phone execs. They clearly need length. The most impressive display of talent all weekend (other than making Sean Marks look like the next Shaq) was Al hopping on one leg half the length of the court after he hurt his knee. They should turn that into a footwork and balance drill.
There's simply no future (i.e., playoffs) in the now, just a lower draft pick.
SFJ: A two for one is when a team gets the ball in an offensive possession between 24-48 seconds remaining in a quarter/half/game and they quickly take a shot (before the 24 second mark) so as to guarantee themselves another possession at the very end of the game. Instead of simply having 1 possession to end the quarter/half/game, they take a quick shot (a shot they would have taken anyway) so the other team will be left with 1 possession and more than 24 seconds on the clock.
Spread out over an entire game, you can see how 7 seconds or less (7SOL) makes for some fun ball.
@SFJ: Two-for-one is a strategy used by the team with the ball when there is less than 48 seconds left on the clock in a quarter, and is meant to avoid running the shot clock down and then giving the other team the opportunity to hold for the final shot. The idea is to take a quick shot so that the opposing team gets the ball with more than 24 seconds remaining. The result (in theory) is that you get two short possessions sandwiched around the other team's single possession.
whoops....
A two for one is when a team gets the ball in an offensive possession between 24-48 seconds remaining in a quarter/half/game and they quickly take a shot (before the 24 second mark) so as to guarantee themselves another possession at the very end of the game/quarter/half.
....that last part is important.
I would guess that Collins, Booth and Madsen have learned a few things about post offense guarding Big Al during practice. If McHale chooses to play any of them, Love should pull them aside and say "You're going to love playing alongside me" and challenge himself to ring up double digit assists dishing for bunnies out of the high post. With the right plan and personnel, K-Love could be a triple double point forward monster.
If Miller is committed to staying in Minnesota, why not let him develop into a 6'8" combo guard? With a little more muscle, a few post moves and polish on his ball-handling and defensive footwork, he could realistically be a poor man's Magic. He is smart, experienced and loves to rebound. Opposing coaches will never know which role that he will fill creating match-up hell. Did anyone discourage Magic from developing his 3-point set shot? A fully realized Miller is a happy Miller and the treys will again rain down in a cloudburst. Since when does it make sense to limit a player's skill set and potential? Look how easy it is to game plan for a two-dimensional player like Peja. Is that what we really want from Dakota Mike? Right now we have the luxury of time to experiment because the T-Pups are not yet ready to launch anyway.
"Two for one" is a end of quarter term when a team is able to get 2 possessions with under a minute in the quarter with a quick shot early in the shot clock, allowing the opposition ball a full 24 sec possession, and thus giving the team the last shot (2nd possession) of the quarter with say 10-15 seconds left.
sorry, didn't refresh before posting 2-4-1 explanation. nice work, guys.
As for Shaddy, it's a shame that Spree had to sell his boat business in Wisconsin due to foreclosure. Shaddy could have helped him out...and he wouldn't have to get paid enough to feed his family.
Britt, The Love-Jefferson combo is remarkable.
As for the backcourt, or lack thereof, Bassy is horrid. That game ending pass to Miller, ten feet behind him, was embarrassing. Nearly has embarrassing as his 0.345 FG%.
Last three games for Foye amasses 11 for 49 shots, or .224 FG%.
Here's an indicator of Spencer Tollackson's pro potential: he's currently a broadcaster on the Big Ten Network.
I also agree that managing Love's minutes should stay, even if Jefferson is done for the year. Although I don't quite agree that his returns would diminish if he played 30 minutes instead of 25, playing 35 on a nightly basis probably would lead to some problems during back-to-backs and at the end of the season.
My guess is that the only way we'll see another player added to the roster, Jefferson or no Jefferson, is if someone's willing to give the Wolves a 2nd-rounder for McCants, which is at least possible. The message from Glen Taylor was clear when they cut Chris Richard and kept Booth: no more paying guys that aren't on the roster. It's too bad, but if a guy like Richard is a D-League all-star, then there's only so much we could expect from someone who was called up.
Big Al's transistion defense reminds of my son in his elementary and middle schools days. Waltzes back, head down, zero awareness of what is going on around him, as opposing player takes the ball to the hole for a layup...
As my son would say "that wasn't my guy!"
Call me crazy, but I am looking forward to seeing what the team can do in Al's absence.
A lot more running, better ball movement, more balanced offense and better interior D (almost by default, no matter who they throw in there)...my guess is the fall-off will be less than people think.
I am not going to go so far as to say the team will be better, but I do think there could be some good outcomes. Worst case, we lose a bunch of games and position ourselves for a better pick.
The Star Tribune is reporting Big Al tore his ACL. While not a doctor, I would find this surprising based on the video. It looked much more MCL (he was going backward) than an ACL (twisting sideways).
Either way, if true, Big Al is done for the season.
Will the Twolves ever have a year when the get a break?
Al done for the season, maybe longer - torn ACL. this sucks.
The second-half of the NBA season usually has the bad teams' best players out with "injuries" so I think a Jefferson-less Wolves team will just look like one of the lottery teams. We'll get piss-pounded by the contenders, but probably compete hard-enough to win the occasional game vs OKC or Baron-less LAC. I think people are kidding themselves, though, if they think a lineup of Telfair, Foye, Gomes, Love and Cardinal (or something to that effect) can even be taken seriously by a Top 10 team. Maybe for that reason alone, they'll upset a team every now and then.
If Jefferson tore his ACL, we can only hope for the David Robinson Situation. Even if Tim Duncan isn't walkin' through that door on Draft Night, Blake Griffin might have huge trade value or Ricky Rubio could be a potential franchise-saver. That would obviously be a silver lining to a bad Jefferson injury.
And I don't agree with people who think we should limit Love's minutes. If he's out of shape (which I don't think he is) he'll get in shape by playing more. Basketball isn't that hard on a 20-year old's body. Shaq is one of the only players in the league who gets close attention to any minutes over 30. He's 350 lbs. Love can easily handle 35 minutes per game. Sure, his rebound rate will go down, but his all-around game might improve with more scoring opportunities. It would be interesting to watch, in Big Al's absence.
It's just such a huge punch to the gut I'm at a loss for words. You have to admit that in January when we could beat almost anyone, this was a fun team to watch. We caught a glimpse of our potential, and now it's gone.
I just hope this doesn't mean the Wolves are going to get fleeced before the trade deadline. On the other hand, I really couldn't fault Taylor if he wanted to dump Miller for pennies on the dollar to be rid of his $10 million salary next year.
AL Jefferson is out for the season. I think this is going to add a very very different dynamic to the team. Now is Kevin Love's time to shine. Britt you may get your wish about the other bigs. I don't see a way around it.
Collins and Booth at least have size. What does Madsen bring to the table though? He's quite possibly the worst NBA player ever.
Good god, we are going to be truly terrible without Al. Just when this team was starting to be watchable too. The only remote positive is that it should insure us maintaining our pick, which might now be an incredibly high one.
At risk of contradicting my admonishment to Britt and others to "get over KG," I must say that this is another reason to appreciate what we once had. KG the rubber band man. I remember many incidents where he came down awkwaard on one leg and you expected something to pop, but it never did.
Durability is one of the most underrated virtues of a star athlete. I'm not saying that Jefferson is injury prone, this may have been just an unfortunate accident, but KG was and is durable.
Oh well, all we can do now is sit back and wait for next year while looking for reasons to be optimistic about the future (trades, draftpicks, lottery, etc.). I wonder what this will do for McHale's enthusiasm for coaching and whether he'll be enticed to take on another year.
Time for a little lemonade making here. Yeah, it's bad Big Al got hurt, but he's really the only known quantity in this bunch. Even though our pine-saturated bigs are of journeyman quality, let's see one paired with K-Love, Kevlar or whatever his current nickname is and "see what they can do". Jason Collins has to be the equal of, say, Sean Marks, and against the right competition (teams like us), it will still fun to watch. We were lottery bound anyway; this might help put an extra ping-pong ball in our basket.
This gives the Iron Ranger the perfect cover to adjust his smaller ball vision if he so chooses, unless he truly doesn't trust anyone over 6'11 anymore, unless they're a Wolves broadcaster.
My guess is that we are all about to gain a lot of respect for Big Al, matador defense and all. The Wolves need to go about finding out what combination of talent it would take to pry one of the Clippers 7 footers (Chris Mihm, our ginger saviour) away from them. That's the only way that Kevin Love is going to have a shot of excelling. Bye Bye Mike Miller, helo a blatant lack of irrelevant salary cap freedom.
Love is just not ready to face primary defenders, much less double-teams.
To Andy's first comment: Assuming you're talking about the woman who frequently wears a pink sweater and has a streak in her hair, then her name is Toni and she's had those seats for as long as I can remember. She's a regular on a Wolves mailing list I'm on.
Not much else to say other than that I hope Al's injury isn't serious. It looked like he landed with all his weight on that one leg and there was some torquing to the side, which is NEVER good when it comes to knees. Cross your fingers everyone.
Oh, and Britt, have you noticed that Jim Pete's favorite new bit of insight has to do with the words "Gomes" and "Barometer?" I haven't heard him give you props for it once, either.
Scratch that, just saw that he's out for the season. Not too much of a surprise, what with the way he torqued it when he landed.
Tough day for Wolves fans. At least there's always the draft pick to look forward to, and a torn ACL, at least from what I know, isn't too hard to return from (it just takes a ridiculously long time to recover).
McHale (in an audio interview on the official website) said that Love's going to get a lot more minutes...
Will one of the posters who's smart about basketball (or Britt) please give those of us who are not a few examples of great players who came back from ACL injuries? Good lord this seems bad. Things were looking so good for a minute there. Even though Big Al pissed my off by showing up teammates his moves were so awesome. Goddamn the Wolves need some good luck for once.
While losing Jefferson for the rest of the season is a huge blow to the Wolves' entertainment value, this team doesn't have much too lose at this point in the season. This team has become far too dependent on his play. Asked to be the main defensive force inside while getting 40-50 touches (just a guess) a night on offense is just too much. I'm interested in seeing what kind of offense they can come up with now without him with Foye and Telfair forced to create more and maybe even a post up for KLove every now and then....
It's pretty tough to know (let alone compare to other players) the severity of this injury. Players can certainly come back from them (and many have), and sports medicine has really improved over the past 20 years.
Al Harrington is of similar stature and has come back to be the same chucker he was before the surgery. More recently, Tony Allen of the Celts came back. Oh, and let's not forget that Adam Morrison is going to hit his stride any minute now! Can't think of others at the moment, but there are many examples (better than Morrison).
Also, I think Foye at 2 is much more tolerable than Jefferson at the 5 or even worse Love at the 5. Watching Love trying to guard Yao Ming while Maddog, Collins, and Booth sit and watch is ridiculous while a much better match-up for Kevin (Carl Landry) is destroying Brian Cardinal.
With Rhino out and now Al done for the year, it will be interesting to see if McHale can still find ways to keep his three centers on the bench.
All the lemonade out of lemon comments have already been made, except for one: Love, undersized though he is, is likely to turn the 5 position (when he occupies it) into a hub rather than a black hole. Al is a great scorer and rebounder, but not a great team player. Love is a team player. It will be interesting to see if his vaunted outlet passing translates into equally creative ball distribution when he is receiving dedicated touches with his back to the basket.
Geez, what can you say about the effect of losing Jefferson? Pretty much, he is/was McHale's basket of eggs. With those eggs broken, though, we see that the possibility of an omlette exists in getting a shot at the top draft choice(s). Unfortunately, the top prospects are neither centers nor point guards.
A few weeks ago, McHale cited Collins as a "world class kid" who was sitting because the Wolves were taking "another direction". Well, now, it's not every day there's a "world class kid" sitting on the bench waiting for the wind to change. Will it blow towards actually trying to develop some genuine center play? Here's hoping that it does. I'm not interested in watching McCants.
As far as I'm concerned, it's a shame that K-Love will be given more minutes. I've said all season that his "rookie" time needs to limited and I stand by that.
BTW, here's some nice "free agent market" analysis by David Aldrige:
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/01/08/aldridge.dose.090107/index.html
For Flandango (re ACL injuries in the NBA):
http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1140695...
If McHale is so decidely anti-Collins actually playing in the game, maybe he could be convinced to move him. Say Collins and McCants to Indiana for Rasho and Josh McRoberts. Everyone is on an expiring deal, so no cap worries.
The Wolves get a functional center who McHale is familiar with to help patch the holes for the last 30+ games. It would also minimize the amount of time Love or Smith play at the 5, which figures to get fairly ugly at times.
The Pacers free some more playing time for Hibbert and get a free look at McCants while Dunleavy and Daniels nurse injuries. Maybe toss in a second-rounder if needed. It's not as if the Wolves value them anyway.
One more recent article:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/basketball/309644_nban30.html
FWIW, I have torn my ACL and had the replacement procedure using the patellar tendon.
RE: ACL
• this guy says, "a torn ACL used to be a career-altering injury, but these days it's more of an annoyance than anything else."
http://nba.fanhouse.com/2009/02/09/torn-acl-ends-al-jeffersons-season/
• this article discusses ACL injuries in great detail & mentions Bonzi Wells and Baron Davis (who tore his in college) as players who've come back to excel without further knee problems.
What this brings up is how the icefish phone execs couldn't have gotten Vlad from a team in need of a backup big man for Jason - with nearly identical contracts and Jason's added benefit of an expiring contract.
Vladimir Radmanovic, buried on the bench with the Lakers, scored 13 points and hit three fourth-quarter 3-pointers in his Charlotte debut Monday night, helping turn a close game into a rout in the Bobcats’ 94-73 win over the road-weary Los Angeles Clippers.
“Another guy who can hit shots,” point guard Raymond Felton said. “That’s going to help our offense, no question.”
Another long guy who can spread the D and hit the 3. Hmmm, does anyone know of a team in painful need of that?
Will Lose...I can see a whole lot of reasons why the Lakers and Wolves weren't making a deal.
First off, teams in the same conference tend not to deal with each other (Clippers excepted).
Second, do the Wolves really need, or want, Radmanovic? Someone's gotta play defense on this squad. Well, don't they? Maybe not.
Third, Jason's contract is a lot like Vlad's: huge - relative to his on-court contributions. However, the Lakers magically split Vlad's contract into two separate ones that actually saves(!) them money now, next year, and especially in 2010-11. Kupchak merely has to endure the stigma of trading for Michael Jordan's draft pick busts...twice (counting Kwame).
And Collins in "World Class", right?
Mrs. Butterworth would be a die hard fan named, Toni M.
I know her from a long standing Wolves fan email list.
As for our C situation. Gee, maybe having drafted a player who could contribute this year instead of Pekovic would have been a good decision.
Rob
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