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The Three-Pointer: Not Enough Horses

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Game #56, Road Game #29: Toronto 118, Minnesota 110

Game #57, Home Game #28: Minnesota 103, Utah 120

Season Record: 17-40

1. Worn Down, Then Out

Sometimes basketball can be explained in pretty simple terms, and so it is with the Timberwolves since Al Jefferson went down. Knowing he doesn't have a reliable low post option on the order of "Big Al," coach Kevin McHale has gone to a motion offense, with a lot of cuts and screens and circular movement in the half-court, plus the desire and mandate to push the pace in transition whenever possible. Gone are the possessions--which occurred anywhere from a quarter to two-thirds of the time--where Minnesota could deliver the entry pass to Jefferson on the block and then execute minimal movement as he made something happen in the paint. Sure, sometimes he would rifle it back out to the perimeter off the double team, but even that didn't require a lot of planning, as Jefferson's passing skills remains a mere step above rudimentary. He was actually more likely to feed you when you were standing on the wing than if you cut hard to the hoop.

The Wolves have become very adept at this slick passing, constant motion scheme. When they are functioning smoothly, which occurs for at least two or three times at 3-4 minutes per stretch recently, it is a joy to watch. The players are generally selfless, aggressive and energetic. Woefully undersized against most every opponent they encounter, they thrive on speed and execution.

But this is a taxing way to operate, especially compared to the nights of Jefferson. The inevitable fatigue manifests itself in mental mistakes at both ends of the court, and in the perserverence, alertness and desire to make stops on defense at crunchtime. Relative to most opponents. the current Wolves roster lacks size, depth and experience, and every one of those things preys on their lungs, legs and willpower as they literally wear down and then wear out.

The numbers are pretty stark in this regard. Since Jefferson went down with his knee injury versus New Orleans earlier this month, the Wolves have yielded at least 31 points in the 4th quarter in 6 of their seven games, and in those same six games it has been the most points the opponent has scored in any quarter of the game. (BTW, the exception is not their lone win, over Miami, but the loss to Indiana, where they yielded "just" 26 in the 4th and still lost by 5.)

In other words, the Wolves have learned how to play without Jefferson; they just haven't been able to sustain it. And judging by the past two losses, on the road in Toronto Tuesday and at home versus Utah Wednesday, this trend is getting worse, not better.

As happened against the Lakers last Sunday, McHale hastened the Toronto loss by sitting Kevin Love in the 4th quarter and going with an impossibly small lineup of Gomes-Miller-Telfair-Foye-Carney. Yes, the Raptors likewise had gone small, but Bargnani, Bosh and Marion were the frontline the final 2:38 and at least two of them were always on the court in the final quarter. The irony is that McHale is now regarding the position Love plays on the court exactly the way he regarded Jefferson's: The rook is constantly a center, and almost never a power forward playing next to a legit big.

Love was dominant to open the game Tuesday, scoring six of the team's first eight points and half of their first 22 with just 5:41 gone in the game. Over the next 42:19, he would score just 4 more, in part because he played only 15:02 of that span. But the Wolves were working their ball-movement game to near-perfection, going off for 37 in the first period on a whopping 10 assists while shooting 60% from the field. They scored 8 more quick points in the first 2:17 of the second, but by then Minnesota was utilizing its bench, which was fairly ineffective except for Brian Cardinal, who physically annoyed Bosh right out of his rhythm (oh if Cardinal could have only played Odom in the loss to the Lakers on Sunday); but Cardinal was first off the bench and thus the first to sit. The ball movement was retarded considerably with the scrubs, especially without either Telfair or Miller in the game. You can't blame McHale for resting his regulars at some point, but because Miller refuses to play any position but demi-point guard--and because for the past two games he's been really good at it--it might be wise to make him your de facto backup point and put him beside Foye or Ollie.

Anyway, there was too much quick jacking later in the second, enabling the Raptors to make it a game after being down 16 early in the period. From there, that lack of size-depth-experience troika doomed Minnesota, as did the heavy minutes endured by Miller and Gomes--both superb at the ball movement scheme but both heavy afoot and not up to the defensive challenge at crunchtime. Toronto scored 34 and won going away.

I can't remember--ever--an entire quintet of Timberwolves moving without the ball any better than the starters did in the first half against Utah. Randy Foye--the hero of the January surge and the remaining cornerstone with Jefferson out--was the fifth best player on the floor for Minnesota. Miller, who had nine assists and zero turnovers against Toronto but still frequently set up his teammates (especially Telfair) to fail at a rate higher than if he'd taken the shot himself, finally blended sharp passing with smart shot selection, hitting all six of his first half FGA. Perhaps he's more comfortable going for his when he knows (o thinks) all of his teammates are sufficiently involved, because he turned down some dime temptations he almost always seizes. Meanwhile, Gomes continued to be aggressive toward the hoop, and Telfair wasn't short-circuiting the offense by shooting.

Perhaps even more impressively, the Wolves were exerting the effort on defense, heeding McHale plaint from the previous night in Toronto. Their feet were moving and their necks were swiveling to counter Utah's steady diet of nifty back cuts and crunching picks, and everyone's hand were active with deflections and bothers if not steals. It was a very pleasurable 24 minutes of hoops, far superior to the also pleasurable effort against the Lakers because the Jazz weren't coasting like LA; on the contrary, with Boozer, Williams and Kirilenko all finally healthy at the same time, they'd won five in a row and need to stay hot to secure a playoff berth.

But even with the Wolves up by 4 at halftime (55-51), there were troubling signs. Love and Miller were a combined 13-14 FG for the half--Love had 17 points, 10 rebounds and was plus +20 in 17:35 of action--but Minnesota was getting absolutely nothing from their bench, who shot a collective 1-8 FG. Meanwhile, Deron Williams and Paul Millsap were a combined 1-13 FG for Utah, and seemed a much better bet to spring back from this shooting slump than the Wolves' bench.

No criticism of McHale for this substitution rotation. He had his starters relatively rested and inserted into the game with 8:27 to play and Minnesota down just 3, 89-92. But "rested" is a relative term. Utah is a notoriously physical team, one that usually leads the NBA in fouls committed; a squad that will run you through more picks than most opponents, and cause you to be constantly mentally alert for the quick back-screens and cuts to the basket. As crunchtime unfolded, Minnesota was clearly gassed again. After posting a 17/9 assist/turnover ratio in the first three periods, they went 4/5 in the 4th, and shot 35.3% (6-17 FG) after going 49.2% (32-65 FG) through the first three quarters. Meanwhile, the Jazz were hitting 61.1% of their shots (11-18 FG) in the period while getting to the line 15 times (and sinking 13) off of 10 fouls by the tired Timberwolves.

After the game, I asked McHale the obvious: Without Jefferson to feed in the low block for points that don't require such intensive effort, could it be that your team just doesn't have the size and depth to last, and you eventually wear out? I don't know, he replied, but of course he knew. We can't make excuses, he emphasized, and that is really the nub of it. No matter how legitimate, if the Wolves begin to think they can't sustain their pace and grit against good teams, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The other question I asked him is if he can do anything about apportioning shot selection. Specifically, Miller and Love combined for a ridiculously productive 19-23 FG from the field, yet Miller once again had the fewest FGA of any of the starters (9-11 FGA) and Love only attempted one more than that (10-12 FGA). He replied that the team does run plays for both Miller and Love but that sometimes those options are taken away and it is time to check down to plan B or C. But in any case, McHale emphasized, the team is going to move the ball and move their feet, and when the man is open in this fast-paced scheme, he should be taking the shot. I think he concluded by saying, that if the team stood around and pounded it in to one or two guys (a la w/Jefferson), they'd be "dead."

2. Appreciating Gomes

Why the Boston Celtics didn't make a hard run at Ryan Gomes this off-season remains a mystery. The Celts could have offered Gomes (then a restricted free agent) a million or two less than James Posey got in New Orleans and it would have exceeded what the Wolves wound up paying. Perhaps Minnesota would have matched, but the greater point is that Gomes would have given Boston just what it needed--which is multipurpose glue in a large swingman.

The style and caliber of his play since Jefferson went down is a good example. With Big Al in the lineup, Gomes reached the 20-point mark a mere 5 times in the team's first 50 games. Now that Jefferson is out, Gomes has gone for more than 20 five straight times. Called upon to guard power forwards instead of small forward, his defense has slipped a tad, but certainly not the effort. And while he is jacking up more shots, they remain so much in the flow of the offense, and are so consistent both in their frequency and their relative accuracy, that he continues to operate beneath the radar. He is a professional.

He is also magnanimously personable. Whereas the vast majority of NBA players will respond to detailed and substantial questions from the media by saying they don't know or giving a monosyllibic reply, simply to get rid of you, Gomes will engage. After Wednesday's game, I said I knew the company line was that the Wolves couldn't make excuses for their lack of perseverance, especially on defense (three players echoed McHale on that point) , but wasn't it tougher to keep your stamina without the load lightening Jefferson provided? He acknowledged that it was, especially against a team like the Jazz, who have so many weapons and so many contingenies out of Jerry Sloan's basic sets. "We'd try to take something away that they'd done and they'd do something else" in the context of that same play, he explained. it was particularly difficult "to play good defense for 22 seconds" and then get a breakdown right before the shot clock ended, or yield an offensive rebound. He added that pushing the pace also risks more turnovers, which can also seriously compromise the defense, in addition to the physical toll it takes.

I'd noticed he'd been pretty much splitting his defensive assignment between Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur and asked Gomes what the protocol was on assignments. He replied that some of it was staying with the man who had wound up guarding you at the other end and not "cross switching" (which some teams do more than others) in transition. When I said it was particularly hard guarding Okur, who can stick the trey but also fake it and then drive to the hoop, and if you close out he can whip it over the Kyle Korver, a deadly three point specialist who is becoming more and more like Richard Hamilton each succeeding year, he said that, at least when he was guarding a big on the perimeter, the capability of Deron Williams was also a big factor and helped both Okur and Boozer because their man was always aware of Williams' prowess on the pick and roll. It was just a quality conversation about hoops that most players don't have time to create.

Another noteworthy thing Gomes said was that when Jefferson comes back next year he is going to try and remember how aggressive he has been lately and continue that going forward in the future.

3. About That Trade...

Too much of the conventional wisdom after the recent trade with Sacramento was that the Wolves had helped themselves positionally at center and point guard for the remainder of the season. I'd always regarded Bobby Brown as a combo guard who was much closer to Foye than to Telfair in terms of his style and skill set. In two games of limited stints, Brown has shown he's not a point guard. His proclivity to shoot first and pass later contributed to the ball movement disruption that helped swing the game to Toronto on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Shelden Williams hasn't gotten off the pine. When I asked McHale if he'd be ready soon, the coach responded that he doesn't like to play 11 guys, let alone 12, so exactly how much of a look-see we'll get of Williams remains ambiguous. There was a point late in the second quarter against Utah when there seemed to be a need for a defensive-oriented big who wasn't Collins' size, but McHale obviously thought otherwise.

Two things we are beginning to know, however: With some of the post-trade chatter, then the suiting up of Brown before Williams and now the playing of Brown before Williams, it would seem that Wolves are more intrigued with Brown, who, unlike Williams, has a year to go on his (small) contract. Secondly, McHale isn't really enamored with either player, which leads one to believe he wasn't the biggest influence in the room when the deal went down.

16 Reader Comments

Andy G09:14am
Feb 26

I really hope the Wolves continue to play this hard, every night--at least at home. While we have almost no chance of winning most games, it makes the basketball product so much better to watch when the other team has to work to get the win and we get to see their true go-to guys step up and do what they do best. Given how depleted our roster is, and in particular, how lacking in talent our second-unit is, it's pretty remarkable that we've been battling teams like the Lakers and Jazz to close contests for 3.5 quarters.

I think I've gotten over the Rodney Carney Craze that almost hit me during his hot stretch. He never makes a shot that isn't a corner trey. I think Brewer is a more valuable player, and I hope we don't bring back Carney.

A Captain Obvious point: Telfair could be such a pain in the opposing team's ass if he could knock down open shots. The way he pushes the tempo, picks up his man out-court on defense and generally brings a hyper-competitive attitude to most games has all the makings of a tough point guard that other teams would hate to play against. But, it just takes so much away from him that he can't finish consistently at any spot on the floor. That said, he's miles ahead of Ollie in overall effectiveness. Ollie brings almost nothing to the table, at least in terms of tangible basketball skills.

This is sacrilege to most basketball fans, but I think Chris Paul might be the third-best point guard in the league today. There's a lot of useless debate on who is a "true point guard" when this topic gets brought up, so I just mean of the 30 players that dribble the ball up the floor for their teams. I prefer Deron Williams, for his strength and finishing ability, as well as his willingness to make simple passes that initiate better ball-movement and teammate involvement. Utah plays a great half-court offense. Williams is a stud. And Tony Parker is also making quite a case for being the league's best point guard, if not league-wide MVP. In Duncan and Ginobili's absence, he put up 37/12/5 in a blowout win over Dallas, and then 39/9/5 in a blowout win over Portland. Many of us watched him put up 55 in a Ginobili-less win over a full-strength Wolves team. The guy is unbelievable. Anyway, you could just as easily make the case for CP3, but calling it a no-brainer, based mostly on skewed assist numbers or Bill Simmons articles is wrong, in my opinion. Paul and Parker are also very playoff-tested and either player could win this year's title.

pagingstanleyroberts (not verified)09:53am
Feb 26

A couple of things. I like Gomes, but I think his defense suffers when he has to be more aggressive offensively. Of all the players he should be able to guard, Mehmet Okur and Andrea Bargnani would qualify because they're slower than him and he has had to guard 3s for most of the year. They can shoot over the top of him, but he shouldn't be biting on their shot fakes or getting beaten on their drives. This is probably something to watch for the rest of the year.

As for Williams/Paul, I'd take Paul, hands down, because he's one of the better defensive points (he had that consecutive games stealing streak) and because Williams plays in the Utah system, which has made guys like Carlos Arroyo and Howard Eisley look like better players than they were. I just think that if Utah and New Orleans were to meet in a playoff series, Paul would outplay Williams significantly enough that people wouldn't have this debate.

A.K. Agikamik (not verified)10:03am
Feb 26

Britt -

Spot on assessment.

Your math on Love's numbers is off in the 7th paragraph (you seem to get it right later). I think you are using his rebound numbers (15) when referring to the points he scored (24).

I find McHale's explanation for Miller and Love's lack of FGA to be much more accurate for Love than Miller. As you pointed out to me at half, Miller was low FGA man among starters at 6-6, so his lack of attempts lasted all game. In the second half, Utah adjusted their defense in an effort to deny Love the ball and attempts. His dozen FGA was more due to the opposition, where Miller seemed to have passed up too many opportunities.

The thing I noticed in Love in the fourth quarter was that he lost his edge. He played aggressively throughout the first half and seemed to hang back a bit late. I saw the same thing in the Laker game where he started feeling picked on and it seemed to take the juice out of him. Partly this is conditioning, but may be something more. Being the weakling on the court is still a new experience for him.

Is Gomes magnaminously personable? Yes, but thoughtful and well-spoken too. Most of these guys know what to do on the court. Very few have the capacity to convey that knowledge with Robsonian insight. Ryan seems like the kind of guy who could end up coaching when his playing days end.

Finally, for those who did not see the game, the final score does not reflect the closeness of the contest until the very end.

stop-n-pop (not verified)10:20am
Feb 26

Andy G, we agree on something!!! ;) I'm a big D-Will and Parker guy as well. I think you go with Paul for show and Williams/Parker for the wins.

PSR: the head-to-head D-Will/Paul matchup has 12 games under its belt:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=paulc...

10-2 for D-Will.

Also, Paul may have a lot of steals, but he's not that good of a defender. He allows a high opposing eFG for his position along with a high percentage of iFG (i.e. people drive on him). His adj +/- defensive rankings are poor:

http://atthehive.wordpress.com/2008/04/13/is-chris-paul-bad-at-defense/

And this is the 1st year that his team has been better with him on the court on defense than off. Most of the reason for this is that the Hornets are on the decline and they have had a lot of injuries.

Paul is a fantastic player. He carries that team but he's not as complete as guys like Kobe or LeBron...especially on defense. If he were on the Wolves, we'd still be talking about how he needs to be paired with a big guard who can help out on defense.

Just A Fan10:21am
Feb 26

Britt,

One thing that I don't think has been discussed nearly enough is the propensity for taking questionable fouls, especially early in the 4th quarter. Stuff like Telfair just grabbing a guy on a 2 on 1 and Love trying to step in for a charge. Now I realize that the old mantra of "make them earn it" still applies in some situations, but with the way the game is called today, how is anyone going to hold a lead / make a come back if your opponent is shooting free throws at the 9 minute mark? Utah is 13-15 in the 4th quarter. Toronto is a 11-12. LAL is 10-11. Somehow, we need to tighten this up and limit the 4th quarter free throws. I guess I suggest starting by eliminating the obvious grabbing and let them get the occasional lay up.

I like the motion offense and it gives us the best chance to be competitive right now. But how does this fit when Big Al comes back? I get the feeling that we are creating something right now that will be discarded as soon as Big Al returns. Hopefully, not - but I am worried. Maybe the motion offense be the focus of the 2nd unit in the longer term.

Finally, my biggest issue with Carney is that he has regressed as a defensive player. I never expected him to be that much of an offensive threat, so his January performance was a bonus. But he seems to have some serious motivation problems defensively. When its Kobe, he is all over it defensively. But against a lesser light, he seems to just not care as much and unfortunately, it shows. I will be very happy to have Brewer back in that role next year.

Andy G10:37am
Feb 26

SnP-

Thanks for the statistical support. I obviously don't watch a ton of the Jazz, Hornets or Spurs, but when I've seen those three teams and point guards, I have come away every bit as impressed, and probably moreso, with Williams and Parker as I have with Paul. Particularly in the 07-08 postseason, Williams was an absolute beast against the Lakers and almost carried that series (sometimes almost single-handedly) to seven games. The lasting image in my head of the Hornets-Spurs series was Paul passing it and passing it and passing it to Pargo and others for a much-needed basket, but unable to get that basket himself. Paul is almost unquestionably the best ball-handler in the game, today. He also excels at doing the Bassy-like drive and kicks. But when I've watched him, he's not as good as Williams and Parker at finishing in the paint and his teammates do not get to touch the ball as much with regular, in-the-flow-of-the-offense, passes.

PSR- I take your point about Eisley and Arroyo, but I'll flip it around and say that a point guard that is willing to buy into a system is more valuable than one that is constantly playing by his own rules and needs to be the center of attention. Allen Iverson is the extreme example of needing the ball to be great. Williams and Parker (and in the not too distant future, Derrick Rose) have a better feel for when to make the play themself, and when to pass it to the wing and screen away.

flandango (not verified)11:34am
Feb 26

Went to the game last night. Good to see the effort out of the Wolves, I'd much rather cheer for an underdog that tries than a more talented team that doesn't. That said, I just don't think the Wolves have many legitimate NBA players on the team right now. Besides the starters, what players actually would see the court if they played for any other team? Not a quality team even, just any other NBA team? I think Rhino would see the floor, but not many of the other guys. The rest of them just looked terrible last night. Hopefully they can keep up the effort, but I was starting to feel kind of bad for them yesterday. I don't think that this is what they imagined when they dreamed of making the league.

SettlingForJumpers (not verified)12:36pm
Feb 26

I don't feel bad for any of these guys, regardless of how many games they lose. Not when people are losing their jobs, homes, healthcare and retirements and they are still making a minimum of 750 grand to play a game. I know it sounds cliche to say this, but we can't lose perspective. I bet Kevin Ollie, Jason Collins or Brian Cardinal wouldn't trade their current lives for anything.

A.K. Agikamik (not verified)01:04pm
Feb 26

SFJ -

Being a rock star is easier on your knees. Otherwise, agree.

Britt Robson02:13pm
Feb 26

As usual, you folks are a joy to read.

Andy G--Agree on the effort factor. Don't know if the road/home split is a factor (and the team's record indicates that it isn't) but the competitive effort and execution of the last two tilts at Target Center were sterling on the part of the Wolves, and indicate that whatever else people want to say about this crew, they are playing hard against formidable odds. Also agree on Carney, and second Just A Fan's notion that he dials it back a notch when defending an "ordinary" opponent, which is why his future with this team is limited. it is a penny-wise, pound-foolish behavior for a kid who needs to make a consistently good impression.

As for Paul/Williams, I could cop out by saying it is apples and oranges, which is true stylistically, and could also cite many an argument I had two and three years ago where I took D-Will's side. But for the past year and a half, CP3 has separated himself from any point guard in the league. Risking simplicity to make the point, I'd say that Williams is a master craftsman and Paul is a genius. Both have their pros and cons, but in terms of making a team truly special and providing fans with unique entertainment, Paul has the edge. Now if you can surround Williams with the type of players who can execute well already and don't need to be elevated, his value may eclipse Paul's--he'd be amazing on the Celtics or Spurs, for example.

Anyway, a quality discussion all the way around. Folks like AK and Andy G and JAF and S+P and all the rest of the erudite regulars continue to elevate this site, sort of like the second and third stages in a rocket ship. My initial post is the liftoff, but the heights it ascends to from there are a credit to the commenters.

Thanks.

Britt Robson02:17pm
Feb 26

Oh, and I just noticed a double-slight of PagingStanleyRoberts, not citing him among the regulars, where he belongs, or agreeing that Gomes breaks down on D more blatantly than others. I think it is because he is totally gassed from stepping up his offensive effort and moving without the ball far more than he did when Jefferson was around.

flandango (not verified)02:29pm
Feb 26

I'm pretty sure they'd trade playing for the Wolves for playing for a winner. Or being crappy for being good. All I'm trying to say is that getting beat in front of thousands of people night after night would get old. Yeah, it beats living on the streets, but that goes without saying. A.K. almost touches on a salient point as well - when these guys are done, there's a good chance that they're going to be living in pain for the rest of their lives, as well as living off of whatever money they make right now. Playing basketball for a living doesn't mean the rest of your life is all wine and roses. Look at McHale hobbling around out there. How much money would you take if it meant that you'd barely be able to walk when you're old? We're watching the good old days unfold for these players, and ain't very pretty.

I mean damn, I'm not sitting around crying for them, I'm just saying that it can't be fun to fail repeatedly in front of thousands, and I respect the fact that they're still trying. Sad to say, but they don't get paid for that, as quite a few recent Wolves players have shown. In short, I'm a fan, and as a fan I feel bad when my team tries and loses.

bchang (not verified)05:11pm
Feb 26

If you know one thing about Chris Paul, you should know the story of his tribute to his grandfather. I think Mark Madsen posted this on his blog once.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxwyE5m44x4

Captain America (not verified)06:19pm
Feb 26

The fourth quarter was dominated by the Jazz, and for good reason.

K-Love-Miller-Gomes were not getting touches like in the first half.

The team continues to fold because they have an aversion to finding the hot shooters.

I take issue with Bassy and Foye taking the majority of the shots down the stretch. Fourth Quarter Foye became Fourth Quarter clankers.

When you don't get touches in the fourth quarter--like with K-Love--your energy level is going to dwindle. The back court took the game away from the front court.

APB06:57am
Feb 27

Flandango,

I think you are hitting on something here. I don't think most people understand what it takes to excel and be among the best in the world at anything. It takes a single-minded focus that most people are not only not capable of, but also wouldn't attempt it even if we were capable. As fans, we watch in admiration at the skills of these great athletes and hold them is such high esteem that it borders on hero worship.

All the focus and attention that these athletes have given to be among the worlds greatest have meant sacrifices in so many other areas and usually leads to a life that is totally void of development in many other areas until, well rounded individuals such as Britt sing the praises of a player such as GOmes because he can converse like a normal human being. Perhaps, Gomes limitations as baskeball player --that he is destined to be only a role player instead of a star -- can be attributed to his more well rounded personality.

And why do these players do it? Partly, because it pays so well and because we put them on a pedestal as fans and it has to hurt when they don't quite reach the level of plays that fans want them to. So, yes, professional athletes are making sacrifices for our entertainment as fans. Sacrifices that have lead to McHales gimpiness as well as McCants ego-centric personality and apparent lack of social skills that is predominant among many pro athletes.

SettlingForJumpers (not verified)01:31pm
Feb 27

But other than Love, who has problems finishing, who are your go-to front court guys? Maybe Gomes? The 4th quarter is where the loss of Al is killing the Wolves the most. I think the best bet in the 4th is for Miller and Foye to spot up and to let Bassy get in the paint on every possession. If the motion offense results in a Bassy jumper, it's not a good 4th quarter option. Maybe Love can at least get to the line if he can't finish.

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