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On the Ball
The Three-Pointer: The Worst Is Over. Isn't It?
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Game #27, Home Game #13: Minnesota 93, San Antonio 99
Game #28, Road Game #15: New York Knicks 107, Minnesota 120
Game #29, Home Game #14: Minnesota 94, Orlando 118
Season Record 5-24
1. A Discouraging Baseline
There was a bittersweetness to the Timberwolves' road victory over the New York Knicks Friday night, their first win in ten games under Kevin McHale thus far this season. The game pretty much encapsulated the offensive strengths envisioned by those who had entered the 2008-09 campaign optimistic about the team's chances. The 1-2 combo of Randy Foye and Al Jefferson kept Minnesota in the game despite a hot Knicks start in the first period, then the bench, led by Rashad McCants, blitzed its way to 38 points with some spectacular three-point shooting born of a little inside-outside action and sharp perimeter ball movement. The Wolves were 7-11 from outside the arc versus just 2-7 on two-pointers, yet racked up 7 assists and got to the line 14 times. In the third period, all that outside sharpshooting finally pried the triple teams away from Jefferson, and he schooled the foul-plagued David Lee for 9 points (3-4 FG, 3-4 FT) while snatching a period-high 5 rebounds and blocking two shots. When the Knicks again came with the bodies, McHale subbed in McCants and Jefferson found him for a pair of dimes off treys in the final 3:22 of the third (Shaddy nailed a third in that stretch off a feed from Ryan Gomes), finishing off a stretch in the middle two quarters where the Wolves outscored their opponent 69-45. Then, when the Knicks threatened with some offensive fireworks in the 4th, collapsing a 22-point lead down to 7, point guard Bassy Telfair asserted himself with deft passing and strong drives to the hoop, accounting for 17 of the Wolves' final 18 points via the shot or the assist as Minnesota won going away, 120-107.
Put simply, it was a blueprint game for Wolves success. The bittersweetness of it stems from it being realized only under optimal conditions. Mike D'Antoni teams run and gun and encourage you to do the same, figuring they play it more consistently and thus own the patent on the style. This was almost always true when D'Antoni was in Phoenix, but the Knicks, as much or more than even the Wolves, are a team in shambles trying to transition. They have unloaded massive salary this season (Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford) and dumped malcontents (Stephon Marbury) who don't want to buy into what D'Antoini and GM Donnie Walsh are doing. They have also suffered a fair amount of injuries, with Eddy Curry, top pick Danilo Gallinari and swingman Quentin Richardson all on the shelf for the Wolves game. Consequently, the Wolves were being invited to play a style that best suits them--uptempo, inside-outside ball--by a team with less talent and less experience together.
D'Antoni teams are mostly indifferent to defense anyway, but there is nobody on the current Knicks squad that can remotely match up with Jefferson--David Lee landed in foul trouble, Tim Thomas is an unrepentant slug, and Al Harrington and Jared Jeffries are undersized 4's, let alone pivot men. Likewise, D'Antoni's current squad lacks the perimeter quickness to contest treys if they are packing the paint to deter Jefferson. Six-eight glue guy Wilson Chandler had a pair of blocks (on Gomes and Rodney Carney) , but that was it, plus a mere six steals. That's how Shaddy can hit 7-9 from beyond the arc (Carney added another 3-4; the rest of the team was a Wolves-typical 3-11), how the Wolves can shoot 54.2% overall and get to the line 37 times to boot.
Perhaps the most encouraging thing about the Knicks game was Bassy Telfair rising to the fore at crunchtime and not only doling out a game-high 8 assists from off the bench (versus 2 turnovers, while the rest of the team was 12/11 A/TO) but getting to the line for double-digit attempts for the second game in a row. This on the heels of Bassy staying home for Christmas in Minnesota rather than emulating Randy Foye and others by returning to the places they were raised. "Minnesota is my home now," Bassy said, despite having his minutes scutinized and snipped by two coaches in a row, and despite being arguably the most celebrated prep school baller this side of LeBron James over the past two decades. Watch the reaction of the other Wolves when Telfair returns to the bench after a productive stint on the court--the enthusiasm is up and the hands are out to greet him. People are pulling for Bassy on this ballclub, even as first Wittman and now McHale seem fixated on the obvious flaws (lousy outside shooting, occasional height disadvantages on D) and the occasional mental error.
The Knicks game was like the Sacramento game two weeks ago--you don't win it, you are telling everyone this will be a long, torturous season. They flubbed up versus the Kings, but they spanked the Knicks, and headed home to face the opposite scenario, an opponent that presents brutal matchups, the underrated, ever-improving Orlando Magic.
More than anyone in the league, the Magic don't need to pack the paint to stop "Big Al," seeing as how they've got Bigger Quicker Dwight to handle that personally. Orlando's rangy combo forwards, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu are nightmare matchups for Craig Smith because both are at least two inches taller, Lewis is deadly on the catch-and-shoot, Turkoglu is quick off the dribble and both can drain the trey. Coupled with nice pickup Mickael Pietrus and other decent-sized perimeter guys like Keith Bogans and Courtney Lee, Orlando defends the trey as well as they shoot it--they rank third, behind only Boston and Cleveland in opposing 3ptFG%. Bottom line, inside-outside was going to be problematic for the Wolves.
They started horribly. In the postgame, McHale blamed it on getting in way late from New York on the back-to-back, but did it in classic Minnesotan, passive-aggressive fashion, saying yeah, I got in at 3 a.m. and so did the players, but we can't use that as an excuse. Then he repeated it later; the team can't use getting in at an ungodly hour as an excuse because it happens to every team. It was apparently worth mentioning a couple times, however, especially because the Magic jumped out to a 15-2 lead with Dwight Howard getting loveseat position in the paint versus Jefferson. It required a first-quarter stint from the human sparkplug, Mark Madsen, to stem the momentum, and Mad Dog delivered (ditto Brian Cardinal, of whom more will be said later). After that, having won their first game in 28 days (yup, four solid weeks) the previous night, the Wolves leveraged their momentum into a scrappy contest for three-plus periods. McCants and Carney reprised their outside shooting prowess, combining to go 7-10 (McCants 4-7, Carney perfect in three attempts) from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, McCants was woefully inefficient from everywhere else, going 3-12 on two-pointers and 3-8 from the line. He did register a team-high 4 dimes and tied for a team-high 3 steals and has upped the context of his play from "untradeable and unplayable, man is his game ugly!" back to his usual game, the one that's dying to be loved but is ultimately born to be hated due to the inconsistent D, the tunnel-visioned shot selection, and the internal and external temper tantrums. And before we exit this conversation once again, let me add the standard cavaet: Nobody on this team, including a healthy Mike Miller and a confident Randy Foye, has demonstrated they can score in bunches quite the way Shaddy does when he is aflame. And on a team as offensively stunted as the Wolves, that makes him the tease from hell.
Back-to-back treys from McCants and Carney actually tied the score at 82 with 10:16 to play when the Magic decided to step on the gas, demolishing Minnesota 36-12 the rest of the way. With Howard cancelling out Jefferson (matching his 7 FGs in 9 fewer attempts and blocking 5 shots), and Lewis and Turkoglu cruising to 50 points between them, the unsung hero may have been point guard Jameer Nelson, who deserves serious consideration for most improved player of the year, especially if he can retain his elevated play of the past few weeks. On Saturday night, even as the media was receiving notice that an injured toe made his return questionable, Nelson blitzed Bassy and the backcourt for 12 points (5-5 FG, 2-2 3ptFG) 4 assists, 2 rebounds and a steal in a plus +17 stint of 8:12 in the 4th quarter, en route to a game-high plus +26. Afterward in the locker room, Jefferson was quoted by the daily media as saying, "I think we felt a little fatigued and we just gave up on it." The fact that such a damning statement is bound to cause nary a ripple in the team's "one loss at a time" strategy is an indictment on everyone connected with the ballclub.
But as the title of this trey noted, Minnesota has just completed the toughest ten games of its schedule. Maybe Glen Taylor wanted to turn the knife in McHale by forcing him to take over just as this death march through 8 past and future playoff teams in 10 games was commencing (although that putrid Clippers game remains a monumentally bad memory that justify the abrupt axe). But now the schedule lightens considerably. Home games against Memphis, Golden State Oklahoma City and Milwaukee loom among the next 7 contests, and even the road teams (Dallas, Chicago and Memphis again) aren't that daunting. We'll see how much gumption this roster is capable of mustering, or whether they'll get fatigued and just give up on the easy side of the ledger too.
2. McHale Tendencies
The new coach now has ten games under his belt, enough time to demonstrate where his loyalties seem to lie with respect to player rotations. Injuries to Mike Miller and earlier Corey Brewer have of course affected playing time for others. Nevertheless, even with those kinds of mitigating factors, it is clear that thus far the minute-winners on the coaching change have been Craig Smith, McCants, and Kevin Ollie, with slight bump ups for Wittman starters Jefferson, Foye and Gomes. Minute-losers under McHale have been Jason Collins, certainly, who hasn't gotten off the bench, rookie Kevin Love, and Bassy Telfair.
Under Wittman, the Wolves were 4-15, shot 43.1% (32.4% from 3) while scoring 95.2 ppg. They allowed 47% shooting (39.4% from three) and gave up 101.4 ppg. Under McHale, the club has been 1-9 against stiffer competition, with an offense that in terms of unproductivity has barely changed. They now average 95.3 ppg, and shoot 42.9% and 33.3% from long range (with a much needed spike from the past two games). On defense, the club is now yielding 47.4% shooting and 39.6% from beyond the arc, both very marginal upticks in opponents' accuracy. While there does seem to be a little bit more direction out on the court, some of it is derived from things Wittman was already tinkering with (and being criticized for), such as more time for Foye at the off-guard and more time for Ollie at the point. In a nutshell, McHale's burying Jason Collins, demoting Kevin Love, promoting Craig Smith and giving Shaddy McCants enough rope to hang his Minnesota career all haven't really made Wittman an acceptable scapegoat. Yes, the team seems happier under McHale and without question McHale gives a much better postgame recap as to what went wrong than Wittman, whose fuse was shortening by the minute, did at the end. And yes, Wolves' players were really beginning to flinch under Wittman's flinty yet unpredictable tirades and sideline histrionics. Then again, admissions of quitting at the end of ballgames were probably less likely to occur under Witt's watch. I criticized Wittman as much as anyone in the media probably, and don't regret a word of it. But by any meaningful objective measure, the Timberwolves have not been better off without him. It isn't just the players who need to prove themselves during this next, less onerous portion of the schedule. Kevin McHale says he likes these guys. Kevin McHale put this group of guys together. If he doesn't win with them, against sub-mediocre opposition, there really isn't anything left for his tattered reputation to stand on.
3. Observations
Brian Cardinal looks like a guy who should be showing you drill bits at Home Depot, or someone cast as one of the first casualties in a Guy Ritchie shoot-em-up. He is without question one of the NBA's most grossly overpaid performers, on tap to pull down a cool $13 million in this and next year combined. But consider that when Cardinal has been called upon to play this season, good things almost always happen. Specifically, in the 13 games where the balding ex-Boilermaker has logged PT, his team has been a net minus just twice: Once in the blowout win against Detroit, when he was minus -2, and once in the ugly loss at New Jersey, when he was minus -7. There was another game where he was zero. But in those other ten performances, Cardinal and the other four Wolves invariably outscored the opposition when he was on the court, for a combined plus +57 (or an average of plus +5.7 per game). Overall, Cardinal is plus +48 in 77 total minutes of play. I know all the contingencies here--it is a woefully small sample, much of it has been during garbage time, he isn't really a part of this team's future other than as a salary chip down the line, etc. etc. But I just want to point out that in the 1330 minutes that Brian Cardinal has not played, the Wolves are a minus -266. In the 77 minutes he has played, they are a plus +48. Nor is this disparity the result of some wild one or two game swing. It has generally been amassed very slowly and very surely. The morale of this sorry tale is that, despite his many flaws, Cardinal knows how to play in a manner that gives his team a better chance to score and prevent being scored upon. This makes him almost unique among members of this current ballclub.
The shooting woes of Foye and McCants have been well-documented. Less obviously, the clanking of Ryan Gomes has been really hurting this team. Recently in the comments section I offered a staunch defense of Gomes, whom I believe to be probably the best two-way player on the squad (with the possible exception of Brian Cardinal, I guess). But 41.5% from the field for Gomes isn't going to cut it. In some respects that is worse than Foye's 40.6% and Shaddy's 36% because Gomes exercises great judgment on his shot selection, which means he's clanking looks that are generally wide open or otherwise highly advisable. And those are the kinds of misses that really deflate a team. Gomes started slowly last year as well and rallied to post a 45.7% mark. In a disturbing trend, this was way down from the 48.7% of his rookie year and the 46.7% of his second season. Some of it probably has to do with his playing the 3 instead of the four and thus taking more treys and executing less putbacks and other in-close attempts. Still, even his eFG% is well off his career mark. If McCants remains resurgent from outside, Gomes may hug some pine when Mike Miller returns (not something I endorse, BTW), his fairly reliable defense be damned.
Rodney Carney is enjoying a little boomlet in productivity lately, owing to a hot hand on his corner treys. It is a nice niche to own if you can make 'em, as Bruce Bowen and many others will attest. My problem with Carney is that his defensive intensity seems to waver when his offense ignites. When you're legitimately a bit player, it's best not to take anything for granted at either end of the court.
Finally, Al Jefferson flashed his infamous scowl at Randy Foye when the latter tossed an entry pass too high for Jefferson to handle against the Knicks. Before the season, Jefferson said he was going to stop showing up his teammates that way. He hasn't made good on that vow. As an early Christmas present, I received a HD TV (a used, unflat screen that weighs 185 pounds) and ordered up DVR so that I can tape and run back plays on the spot without losing the rest of the game. What I've seen is that if a Wolves' teammate scowled and showed up Big Al everytime he blew the coverage on a pick and roll, or rotation, or even once every ten times Jefferson let his man get comfortable in the paint or beat him to the hoop, the level of facial payback would be a bitch and a half, and put an end to his persnickity standards for how many touches he receives and where he receives them.
42 Reader Comments
Too much is made of Al's penchant for giving his teamates the stinkeye. While, yes, it is a character flaw that he has only really earned on one end of the court, the bottom line is that the players beside him must be incredibly frustrating to play with. This isn't Steve Kerr getting punched by Michael Jordan. It's far more akin to Jermaine O' Neal cold-cocking a fan who came onto the court. This is big-boy-school, and Big Al is the only player making the grade, I'd be a might pissy too.
Let's not forget the way that KG treated the likes of Wally and Marko- great players have boundless expectations of their underlings, and it's not a bad thing that Al thinks he's a great player.
As for Cardinal, I'm very sad to say that I enjoy his play. I'm sad to say that because I always felt the same about one Marko Jaric, the supermodel bedding, plus/minus glowing (in a major sample in his first year, of course), grossly overpaid scapegoat of the last few seasons. I'm not comparing their games (although I will say that I'd compare Gomes' game to Brian's, if Ryan would just get back to where he was before he recieved some go-ahead-and-take-some-time-off-from-playing-because-you've-got-a-contract cash), simply the calmness I found within me when each was subbed in for their inferior contemporaries.
As for Marko. In all the bad trade conversation I wonder why it is rarely mentioned that it was likely bad judgement to feel such an urgent need to deal a tall swing who played defense and fancied himself a point guard on a team full of undersized tweeners who play no defense and only play the point lip-service(basketball players not just being basketball players, as per McHale, but grown men who've defined themselves within certain roles, and are unlikely to cast aside such easily). The contract issues can be stated, but the mid-level exception cash won't bury a team in that regard, and besides, are we really of the belief that Chris Bosh or Lebron James is marching on to the Tundra to save our asses?
Pardon me as sympathize with a multi-million dollar athlete...
"Before the season, Jefferson said he was going to stop showing up his teammates that way. He hasn't made good on that vow"
I would agree his defense has been weak for the majority of the season but he's asked to carry a terribly basic offense with no real consistent second option, and I would argue that the guy he's sharing the paint with the majority of the time now (Rhino) is, at this point, one of the worst defenders in the league. Good coaches and personnel recognize a players' limitations and try to compliment their talent accordingly. Al is a 20-10 guy who is unique being a big who can create shots by himself and he's also the main guy defending our rim for 40 minutes a night. What other big guy in the league puts up that kind of scoring and doesn't play next to another big assigned to do the dirty work on D? Before the season McHale said this team could win 40 games. Well we're 5-24, you're the only thing that's helping sell tickets, you're the only size, only scoring we have a consistent basis, you're playing with an undersized two-guard who's trying to be a point guard and a tight end who's trying to be a power forward, meanwhile the only other spot of hope on this team is out for the year and our new rookie is a terrible compliment to your skill set. Oh and you're all of 23 years old and have committed to this team for the long haul. I'd say Al's frustration is pretty well justified.
Bottom line: look at the record, there should be plenty of scowls.
It seems to be a bad time to be trying to summarize McHale's performance. He's in the midst of making adjustments, like increasing Telfair's and Carney's time and turning Ollie into a starting sub. He and his staff still seem a bit clueless when trying to cool off a hot player, but that's as likely to be a depth and talent/skill issue. What really can't be excused is Love's time. If the team is tired, why not use that as an excuse to give Al the night off or sub minutes and start Love in Al's place to see what the impact will be. When Al is just going to be pwnd by someone like Howard anyway, what exactly is there to lose besides Jefferson's glares and excuse for being dominated in the 4th? Besides, both Al and Love would benefit from some bench time watching how Cardinal manages to be effective with half their talent.
It seems to be a bad time to be trying to summarize McHale's performance. He's in the midst of making adjustments, like increasing Telfair's and Carney's time and turning Ollie into a starting sub. He and his staff still seem a bit clueless when trying to cool off a hot player, but that's as likely to be a depth and talent/skill issue. What really can't be excused is Love's time. If the team is tired, why not use that as an excuse to give Al the night off or sub minutes and start Love in Al's place to see what the impact will be. When Al is just going to be pwnd by someone like Howard anyway, what exactly is there to lose besides Jefferson's glares and excuse for being dominated in the 4th? Besides, both Al and Love would benefit from some bench time watching how Cardinal manages to be effective with half their talent.
It seems to be a bad time to be trying to summarize McHale's performance. He's in the midst of making adjustments, like increasing Telfair's and Carney's time and turning Ollie into a starting sub. He and his staff still seem a bit clueless when trying to cool off a hot player, but that's as likely to be a depth and talent/skill issue. What really can't be excused is Love's time. If the team is tired, why not use that as an excuse to give Al the night off or sub minutes and start Love in Al's place to see what the impact will be. When Al is just going to be pwnd by someone like Howard anyway, what exactly is there to lose besides Jefferson's glares and excuse for being dominated in the 4th? Besides, both Al and Love would benefit from some bench time watching how Cardinal manages to be effective with half their talent.
It seems to be a bad time to be trying to summarize McHale's performance. He's in the midst of making adjustments, like increasing Telfair's and Carney's time and turning Ollie into a starting sub. He and his staff still seem a bit clueless when trying to cool off a hot player, but that's as likely to be a depth and talent/skill issue. What really can't be excused is Love's time. If the team is tired, why not use that as an excuse to give Al the night off or sub minutes and start Love in Al's place to see what the impact will be. When Al is just going to be pwnd by someone like Howard anyway, what exactly is there to lose besides Jefferson's glares and excuse for being dominated in the 4th? Besides, both Al and Love would benefit from some bench time watching how Cardinal manages to be effective with half their talent.
Great post, Britt. It helps me understand several games I was unable to see. Happy New Year, and thanks for performing a needed public service for us down at the hell hoops junkies.
I meant, "down at the heel," though maybe this was a Freudian slip worth making.
Great stuff, Britt.
If last year taught us anything, it's that we should look a lot more at this 5-24 start than the 25-57 or so record that we'll finish the year with. Teams start tanking and trade away their best players at the first real signs of having no chance at the playoffs. We'll win more as the year goes on, but it will have much more to do with the nature of the NBA season and schedule than it does with supposed improvement or development of the young players. Unless we start stringing together winning streaks against playoff teams, I won't feel optimistic about this team's future.
Looking forward to watching OJ, tonight. I have no idea which sorry franchise he preferred, after Miami passed on him and it came down to Minnesota and Memphis, but I've gotta believe that getting traded away for Mike Miller and Kevin Love gives him a little extra motivation for tonight's game. Since there have been multiple "OJ-MAYO!" chants at other games, this year, I'll be interested to see what happens when the man is actually in the building.
FlingerOfPoo,
Let me say that I enjoy your writing style.
Unfortunately, I cannot say that I agree with your assessment of Al Jefferson's level of play in the "big-boys-school". Only by boxscore stats does he remotely resemble a "big boy". Even the moniker "Big Al" turns my stomach. Britt points out just a couple of Jefferson's deficiencies - there are a dozen more deserving of scowls. I can hardly bear to watch anymore.
Sure, we can make excuses for Al's demeanor on the court. We can, however, also expect more from him.
I think his teammates would take his scowls more seriously if he held himself up to the same standards. This is what KG does, this is what Jordan did. That is what makes your teammates respect you.
Levi:
Thanks for the kind words, not about what I think, but in the wine-soaked way those thoughts were doled out.
There is no arguing that Al can't pass, won't play defense, and is a stat-whore. It would be nice if he'd throw that doughy body into the defender more often instead of always attemping to revive the dream-shake. These and other flaws are evident. But none of that does much to diminish that glorious low-post game for me, or that ravenous appetite to score (so many years of KG defering to the Trenton Hassells of the world make me appreciative of some me-me-me-ness). You can't teach height and you would have to start real young to get his nose for the basket, but at some point in his career Al will be teamed with someone who makes him understand the glories of sharing and/or stopping the ball (his building a high-post game portends to a willingness to put the work in).
While Big-boy Al is too expressive with his ire towards his teamates, let's all try to remember how often we find ourselves scowling at the screen, silently flipping off the Ostrich, loudly cursing yet another missed layup. Imagine being forced to endure each minute of it. It would be utterly maddening.
Don't misinterpret this as a claim that Jefferson is a "good" defender, but I think the persistent rants about his defensive problems are overstated. Because defense is harder to observe than offense, players often get mislabeled as a "great defender" or a "poor defender" when their play doesn't really merit any label at all. Trenton Hassell, for example, was persistently mislabeled as a great defender when in fact he was barely above average after the hand-check rules changed. But when media types or bloggers spread misrepresentative information, often based on a few anecdotal instances of defensive success or failure that are in fact outliers or misrepresentative of how good or bad a player is compared to a baseline average of other NBA players' defensive ability, the notion that a player is "good" or "bad" at defense spreads among common fans who can't see it for themselves. I'm not indicting Britt here at all--he's right that Jefferson isn't a "good" defender. But I question the blanket assumption among fans on this and other blogs that Al is bottom of the barrel, horrible defensive player.
Al has been getting better and better this year, and compared to last year his current defensive play is much improved. If he keeps improving the next couple of years, he'll be an adequate defender. Improvement is what we should be looking for from young players, and we haven't seen any on the defensive side of the ball from others like McCants and Foye. I find their lack of improvement troubling, and I'm frankly more worried about their long-term defensive development than Jefferson's. Also, it's a foregone conclusion that Miller will always be an inferior defender, as he's already in or past his prime as a player and won't be doing much improving the rest of his career. Given how bad Al's teammates are at defense, it's unfair to dump a disproportionate amount of the blame on him for our collective struggles because the baseline average of our guys is so bad. Of the guys who get consistent minutes, I'd say that Gomes is the only one who is consistently better at D; Foye, Love, and Ollie are probably about the same; and McCants, Miller, and Rhino are worse. That makes Jefferson about an average defender on our team. Obviously our team is worse than the league average, which probably makes Jefferson slightly worse than a league average defender at his position. But singling him out for our team's collective defensive problems, as many blog commenters do, is misplaced criticism, I think.
It's also unfair to blame him for not shutting down Dwight Howard, who is about four inches taller, about 20 pounds heavier, and is the biggest freak athlete in the NBA. I thought Jefferson did a pretty good job on Howard (and in general) in the third quarter. He got around his man in the post to steal the entry pass, and basically kept Howard from getting a lot of easy hoops near the basket. In the first half, he saved a sure basket when he blocked a shot after one of his teammates blew a rotation. To be fair, he did let Howard get position near the hoop during that disastrous first quarter, but overall I was pretty impressed by his defense against Orlando. It's unfair to ask him to defend Howard at all, as Al is essentially playing out of position, but he plays out of position every night. Al isn't Dennis Rodman, but he's not horrible either.
As I've said before, I can see the flaws in Al's game and I'm not as big of a Jefferson "apologist" as I may seem. But the relentless criticism of our only good player seems to me to be an odd angle of attack when there are so larger problems.
Shogun, great post. I feel the same way about Al, noteably his passing. It's obvious Al is not KG, but I think he's criticized for his lack of passing far more than is far. Remember that KG's surreal passing ability was one of the biggest reasons he was such an incredible talent (along with his defense, take those away and he's just another 20-10 big on a bad team).
Al still takes the occasional ill-advised shot (though are any shots he takes ill-advised considering his teammates?), but I've noticed him doing a much better job than last year at recognizing rotating defenses and making the right pass. It may not be reflected in his numbers, but again, just like your point about a team's abysmal defense making a player look worse than he is, I think our team's woeful shooting does the same to Al's passing. When actually watching the games, I rarely find myself frustrated with Al for not passing when he should have - it's more frequent that the ball is swung after his pass yielding an assist for the middle-man, or it leads to a missed shot. He's even done a noticeably better job of hitting cutters for layups this year, when anyone actually cuts, that is.
Overall I definitely agree that the criticism of Al seems a little harsh at this point. He's definitely a player with weaknesses, but he's in a pretty rough situation. Sure, transcendent talents like LBJ might be able to shine in the black hole that is the current Timberwolves squad, but no one's ever claimed Al is on that level. What he is is a borderline all-star at age 23 playing with a frustratingly jumbled bunch of "talent." He has no clear #2 guy and little defensive talent as a whole on the team. I'd wager that if he is surrounded by competent NBA players (who play on both sides of the court) with a coach to match, his flaws will be much less noticeable.
The Knicks game probably won't be repeated a lot this season, but it does show a possible blueprint. What was implied here and directly stated at Canis Hoopus was that the Wolves should be taking more shots (about 25/game). One of the reasons Hollinger from ESPN had the Wolves rated more highly than what they've achieved is because he cited 3-pt shooting as a major strength. Once Miller gets back, I think it's time to start jacking it up more.
The Spurs game wasn't mentioned in this post, but one of the things that has impressed me in the games against them the last two years is that Jefferson has little problem scoring on Tim Duncan. Sure, this isn't the same Duncan of 5 years ago, but it seems like an encouraging sign. One of the reasons why I'm somewhat okay with Al's deficiencies is because there are very few players in this league who can score inside like him, even against the best of competition.
If Al is getting better at defense, and that IMO is a big if, it is under the hoop, not out in PF territory. He likely will never be able to guard a mobile PF. An immobile PF or a short center are the guys he can guard. It's going to be tough to find any single player to complement him on the defensive end.
I would love to be wrong about this, but Al might be at the height of his trade value now, while his weaknesses can be blamed on a poorly built team.
How bad this team and its coach are will be determined by the next 8-10 games. Those will be a better judge of McHale's coaching abilities because those teams are closer to the 'Wolves' low talent level. I agree that Telfair needs to see more time out there, especially if our strategy is to run now. Love needs to see more burn, too.
Britt, love your work.
I have to ask though...how in the hell could you do this job for so long without DVR? I would think that its almost a necessity in this day and age if your not at every game. I know I have to use it alot to see if what I thought I saw was right.
LOL, no comments on Love being a waste on the court other than rebounding.
I guess we will get that after people see what we should of had in Mayo tonight.
Rob
rw Blake: I think Target Center will be very loud tonight, and much of the noise will be prompted by the O.J. Mayo trade. I'm looking forward to being in the building to hear how fans react (and to see if McHale puts together a special defensive plan to try to neutralize Mayo in order to make the trade look less bad, at least for one night, as a commenter on another blog has predicted he would).
Good stuff as always from you folks.
A few things...
I am in general an Al Jefferson "fan," in that I think he is clearly the best player on this roster and that his array of offensive skills are remarkable and perhaps unique to the league--no mean feat for someone who honed his craft in the NBA rather than college.
But Jefferson's woeful inconsistency at the defensive end frankly pisses me off. The dude is obviously very intelligent, possessing absolutely superb, precocious footwork, a wonderful sense of where his man is playing him and where the double and triple teams are coming from: How many times, despite all his wheeling and dealing in traffic, does Jefferson get stripped of the ball? This is a player who has clearly dedicated himself to being a monster scorer.
So what about the other end? What are the two things Jefferson has improved upon the most from last season to this one? I would say, first, his midrange jumper, and second, his passing out of double teams. I would say his defensive prowess has shown precious little net improvement from the second half of last year, when he did improve some from his awful first half.
This season, Jefferson is better at blocking the shot when the man is coming at him in the lane. But he remains terrible at setting up angles to his advantage when he is just outside the paint and the man is coming to his side either on the baseline or up the gut. He remains bad to terrible at playing the pick and roll--how many times does the guard have to pick up his dribble when Jefferson shows? How many times is there miscommunication with his teammate, leaving two guys with one and the other guy unguarded? And how many times does Jefferson chew out his teammate when that happens?
The reason I called out Jefferson at the end of this post was because of his hypocrisy. He said out loud that he was going to be more of a team leader this season, and that that meant not chewing out his teammates when they didn't or couldn't get him the ball. It was enough of a priority for him to verbalize and link to leadership. Well, I haven't read anyone else mention this personal failure to back up his stated goal, so I brought it up at the end of an "Observations" point in the trey. The other thing that makes it hypocritical is that the acting out only occurs in an area that is Al's strength. As I mentioned earlier, if it was simply to rouse his teammates or foster more intensity, you would think he would do it when it didn't involve his favorite activity on the court.
Bottom line, let me repeat, I appreciate the strengths of Jefferson's game and do not share the opinion of some around here that he should be dealt, or that he's as much a part of the problem as he is the solution. He is a reliable asset on a team that has very very few of them. But he frequently suffers mental lapses on defense, doesn't pay enough attention to defense, and is showing that he willfully would rather hone a strength than bolster a weakness. That deserves to be called out.
As for my newfound DVR, before I got my new toy, I taped games on VCR and thus had to go back to a play to see what happened after the game was over. Naturally this didn't occur nearly as often as now, when I can see what happened immediately and not lose the rest of the game along the way. And yes, it does make you "smarter" in that you can confirm or rebut what you thought you saw and express your conclusions with more confidence. In fact that's been one of the reasons I am down on Jefferson's D. True, viewers can't know the schemes and there can be times when another player is the one blowing the assignment. But it sure does seem like Jefferson is in the wrong place at the wrong time a lot on defense.
Blake--
If you had frequented this site more often, you might notice that we don't dwell on the obvious too much. Now that OJ Mayo is coming to town, everyone and his brother is going to be screaming about the Mayo/Love deal--it's shooting fish in a barrel.
You can "LOL" all you like, but I was bored silly by your unimaginative post. If you've got a take that sheds light on Mayo and Love in a way that hasn't been stated a hundred times already, I'd love to hear it.
Britt: I take your points on Jefferson. You're definitely right that isn't a great defender. But a couple of things: 1) I do disagree that Jefferson hasn't improved from the second half of last year. As someone above said, I think the area that has improved is his on-the-ball defense. I feel like he's learning to get better position and contest shots better than he was last season. I don't know if there's a stat to test this hypothesis: it's just my observation.
You're right that help defense is his weakest area. That said, as much trouble as Jefferson has defending the pick and roll, it doesn't help matters that he has three of the worst defensive guards in the NBA misplaying the initial ball screen before he even gets a chance to step up and show. Foye, McCants, and Miller (especially Foye and McCants) routinely go under the screen and still take terrible angles, which means that they can't recover after any show that the other defender puts out there. This leaves the other defender (usually Al, Rhino, or Love) in no man's land, stuck between the ballhandler and the screener. Those misplays make everyone look bad and lead to lots of easy buckets for the opposing team. Again, I don't have any stats on this, but it doesn't look to me like Kevin Love, for as hard as he tries to show on the pick and roll, does a much better job at preventing hoops, mostly because Foye & McCants misplay their part of it. I might be wrong about this, and I don't want to smear Love's name more than I already have, but I think at least an equal chunk of any blame should rest with Shaddy and Foye. Let's face it, Shaddy, Foye, and Jefferson are all pretty bad defenders, and when put together, they reinforce each other's weaknesses. It's not an either-or, but rather an "all-and" kind of situation, I think. But focusing singularly on Jefferson's defense misses the larger point of the poor team defense that's being played at many positions.
Hello, friends...
I've been reading this blog and the comments all year. I moved from Minnesota while in High School but have followed every move of the Wolves since then, via interweb, from afar. I torture myself by TIVO'ing every Wolves game and trying to not just fast forward through the 3rd quarter, since it will surely be painful. No one will watch the games with me out here, so it has been nice to check in with all of you after games!
I've been in Portland for a few years now, and was a big fan of Kevin Love, and still am. His high school presence out here reminded me of how El Amin used to feel for Minneapolis North—this kid was a BALLER, and all eyes were always on him. Leading up to the draft, I was trying to think of a scenario that might land us TWO players. I wanted a combo of Brandon Rush and Love, or Gordon and Love--I wanted a couple of blue chip guys. Talent. Mayo was not on my wish list—I guess I found him unlikeable, after the stories of how he recruited himself to USC and all the early hype when he was a kid and I lived in Chicago and read about him on the regular. When we pulled off the deal for Miller and Love, I was ecstatic! We got rid of Jaric added a shooter and a kid with a ton of potential and skill. I thought Brewer would have gained weight and found his stroke, and that Foye was going to surprise people, now healthy.
I'm the guy who, as an approximate grown-up and professional, immediately made the trades after draft night and played with the new team on NBA Live. I really thought it was going to work. For the first time, I bought the NBA season pass and got a DVR--excited to see Brewer (one of my favorite college players ever) scramble for outlets from Love, finally putting his athleticism to good use.
Unfortunately, Brewer is hurt and it has been painful, painful, painful to watch Kevin play. Did you see that movie, "Gunnin' for the #1 spot"? Kevin is a star, and plays with the athletes, as if he is a big dog. He looks 7 feet tall. Love had a nice little run of rebounding games, but they didn’t appear sustainable, and worse it looked as if he was actually peaking, as a hustle guy.
Fast forward to the last few games, where he has been nearly invisible, while OJ has been dazzling and steady and professional. During the New York game, I don't know how many 2nd half minutes Kevin played, but it wasn't many--he pouted on the bench, stood away from the team huddles, didn't clap when Carney and Shad FINALLY hit a few jumpers and we left with a win.
So my question is, how would the rest of the season look for Kevin, in an ideal world? What do we even want from him? Is he supposed to try and slim down and become a more face the basket guy like Rodney Rogers? Is he supposed to just be a role player, a really solid guy off the bench like Dale Davis? Is he supposed to be a pick and pop guy or a banger?
In what world can Kevin Love coexist with Al Jefferson? Is Kevin Love going to grow taller and become an effective center (I mean that sincerely)? Is there a 3 out there--a Gerald Wallace, Shawn Marion in his prime kind of guy, who can make up for the defensive shortcomings of Al and Kevin, or is Brewer that guy, in 3 years when he has gained weight and signed with the Spurs?
I guess I just feel bad, as I got EXACTLY what I wanted--a shooter and a blue-chipper, and I was completely, totally wrong. Watching Mayo is really tough because he is a shooter AND a blue-chipper. And Mike Miller is flat out dreadful to watch when he is in there. Maddening. How is it possible that he looks way bigger than I thought while Love looks smaller? It’s like we got the worst case scenario for both players, while Mayo is in Memphis thriving as an idealized version of…OJ Mayo.
Anyway, if anyone can fill me in on how this is supposed to work out, please do so, and if a part of the plan is free-agency and draft, great—just pass on the blueprint, since mine was so completely flawed.
One final thing--watching Rashad McCants this year has been such a sincere challenge, I didn't even know how to feel when he started hitting shots the other night. It was like deciding to break up with a girl and then she comes over and looks GREAT, exactly the way you always want her to look...but you know that if you don't break up, she'll change into sweats and go get some ice cream and you are right back where you started. And that is really frustrating.
Sorry for the rant, I'll go back to reading.
Brit-
Yes, A lot has been said about Love. Frankly, I've seen too many people still liking him as a player. I've not seen your posts saying Love trade was bad.
If you have not said it, you should.
Rob
So Blake, I gather that you are now a Love-hater (how oxymoronic!). I wonder if you have always been one, or just since his time with the Wolves has shown that he is not the uber-Canus that the Wolves hype machine may have lead you to believe.
There are Laker fans who still call Andrew Bynum "The Bust" -- I think we've seen that he is continuing to develop and will eventually be a solid, if not quite spectacular center for the Lakers. Though Love is not in Bynum's XXXL size, he is still a "big" and it will take him time to develop. Not only does he have some pudge to lose, but he has to learn how to handle the long NBA season and the nightly matchups against players who are likely bigger and quicker (and probably meaner) than the toughest matchups he ever played against in H.S. and a couple years in college.
There were/are many here who espouse giving him huge minutes in order to gain as much experience as possible. I have always advocated the more traditional rookie's path, limiting his time and exposure to manageable, survivable situations. Brought along properly, I think Love will eventually be a nice player to have on a team.
A complete waste of court? Nah.
I was happy with the trade when it was made. I didn't see Mayo as a PG at all (which is true) nor as a slasher/dunker/amazing franchise 2 guard in the Wade/Jordan/Kobe mode (also true). I thought he was a solid jump shooter (hey, 3 for 3).
However, I didn't realize how solid he would be as a rookie. He's good, better than I thought. Though I still think he has a limited ceiling. Mitch Richmond perhaps. Which is plenty good, but doesn't make me rue the day we traded him away.
The problem is that Jefferson and Love can't really play together, and adding a good 3 doesn't solve the problem at all - we need a real Center (course, don't half the teams in the NBA). And that means we turned the #3 pick in the draft into a back-up to our best player, our one franchise cornerstone.
The other problem is that I thought Miller would be a huge help. He isn't. He doesn't shoot enough, he doesn't offer leadership on the floor the way I thought he would. And his defense is sub-optimal. Frankly I'm confused by his play.
So I can now say "yeah, it was a poor trade". I don't think it's a franchise turning trade because I still don't think Mayo will be a HOF-er, but he will probably be an All-Star and we certainly could have used one of those. And Love will be a Danny Fortson type (weird analogy in other ways I know) in that he's an undersized rebounding fiend...who can't do much else because of his height and will bounce in and out of starting lineups his whole career based on the match-up. Not a total bust, but not what you want for your #3 pick.
I look back at the draft and think - who should we have drafted? Mayo can score 20 ppg the rest of his career and I still won't pine for him. If anything we reached for a small "big" because we need a real "big" so badly. Maybe I'm getting soft as I age, but I can kind of forgive it. That and I'm happy that McHale is on the sidelines and probably out the door. I just want a front office that's smarter at this than me.
I'm more of a McHale hater than a Love hater. I want whatever will get McHale away from the team.
McHale is on the sidelines, but he is still part of the big three making decisions. And with no one really wanting to take control of decision making it will still fall on McHale.
As for Love, he is a good rebounder with limited potential on defense and scoring. He plays the same position as our best player. Eventually, Wolves will have to make a decision between the two, if Love develops more. And with the way the Wolves are playing, He should get 20+ minutes a night regardless. Especially over Cardinal and Madsen playing.
I also think Mayo would have made an impact on this team that does not have a consistent scoring threat at either guard position, someone to take the pressure off Jefferson. We needed a scoring guard or Center from that draft, we got neither.
Rob
Britt gives us this "nutshell" of Kevin McHale's um, player management:
- 1)..."burying Jason Collins"
- I keep saying that McHale hates centers and believes that a McCloned PF (such as Al Jefferson) is all that a team needs in the paint. I think that this burying of Collins is more evidence.
- 2)..."demoting Kevin Love"
- Actually, I'm pretty much OK with that - I believe the Wolves should be trying to find "good" matchups for him to play against, and not worry much about how many minutes he "regularly" gets. Witness his performance last night vs Memphis - 31 minutes (5 in OT). Obviously, if it's working, McHale will go with Love.
- 3)..."promoting Craig Smith"
- At some point, perhaps McHale will discover that maybe one guy on the floor can be (relatively) slow and undersized at his position, but not everybody. I enjoy watching Craig Smith fine but in order to be successful he needs to be surrounded with players that the Wolves just don't have. He reminds me of a player from the `80s Nuggets, Calvin Natt. Poor ol' Calvin went to war every night, but his body and his game really weren't quite up to the challenges.
- 4)..."giving Shaddy McCants enough rope"
- What will it take for that trap door to open?
Dear Ben in Portland:
Please be patient with K-Love. To give you hope, check out this article on another undersized player who was a late NBA bloomer and has done pretty well for himself:
"...proves you can’t judge an NBA player on his appearance alone. Indeed, he looks more like the team manager than an All-Star....But make no mistake, [he] is a marvelous talent and steely competitor. One of his strengths is his court vision. [He] always sees the open man and gets him the ball for a good look. [He]is a steady shooter with good range. If opponents leave him too much room, he’ll knock down 3-pointers until they finally crowd him. His trademark shot is a 15-foot floater. [He]likes to draw contact, partly because he’s so deadly from the foul line. ...on defense, [he] won’t shut anyone down, but he anticipates extremely well, which produces steals and helps him grab rebounds and loose balls."
http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Nash/Nash_bio.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Nash
Interestingly, both Love and Nash developed their basketball skills on the West Coast and have fathers who were professional athletes. Back-to- back MVPs might be a bit much to expect from Love, but then again, every major college basketball program overlooked Nash. Keep the faith, Ben.
Overdrive - I appreciate your optimism, but Nash and Love play two very different positions and as Bill Simmon's ESPN article points out today most of Nash's MVP-ness came from playing in D'Antoni's fast offense.
A new coach will not give Love height. He can't play 4 (much less 5) without more height. I don't see much upside for him, he'll be a bit better than he is now. A crafty rebounder who can't guard his man very well or take people into the post to score. Yippee.
Blake - we mostly agree, but put down the pipe on Love ever replacing Jefferson in the lineup. Britt is right to challenge Al to improve his defense, but if Love was Most Improved Player next year he still wouldn't challenge Jefferson. That's what makes that trade so painful - even if Love achieves the most he can with the talent and body he has he will never be able to play effectively with our cornerstone on a championship contending club. It is a pick that doesn't make sense.
On a brighter note...with all this losing we get to think about things like BJ Mullens or Hasheem Thabeet - who would you rather put next to Al?
Or do you consider someone like a Brandon Jennings and fill the PG spot once and for all?
It's a shame how many good looking PFs are coming out this year - but let's all repeat this together: "No More Power Forwards in the Draft!"
LOL, what if we get #1. You would have to take the BPA and Blake Griffen another 6'9" PF.
My comment on replacing Jefferson is because of the comments like Brits. While he is a stat whore on offense, he just does not deliver enough on defense or leadership to be a cornerstone on a good team. Love is not going to be great but will rebound and hustle, put some decent players around that you do have makings of a better team player.
Rob
Overdrive--
I echo JasonZ's appreceiation of your optimism...and I do think Love will be a good player in this league, for a long time.
But a point guard can create a legacy, with the ball in his hands a lot easier than a guy who needs someone to feed him--especially if he is second on the food chain. How many teams have 2 low post scorers playing next to each other? So I guess the question isn't as much about Love's potential as it is about his potential playing next to Jefferson.
Watching the game last night was fun though--we finally got to see Kevin have a few plays called for him, next to Jefferson, with Foye on the court, down the stretch. Too bad Brewer isn't healthy for some of Gomes/Carney/Ollie minutes.
Love the Danny Fortson comparison, can't belive I didn't think of it.
OKC got Kristic for a song...would he have helped out in Minny, or do we need the cap room for LeBron and Wade?
A few observations from last night's game:
1. I realize they work for the Wolves, but the TV crew was blatantly annoying in trying to defend the Mayo/Love trade. Listen, we all have watched games and know what is going on with those two. We know where each is at right now and who is outperforming who. Don't try to sugar-coat it for the viewer. Don't tell me that OJ is at best an undersized two-guard who's potential is extremely limited. Any of us who follow the league with any regularity know that is a blatant lie. At any point they could, FSN and the Wolves team tried to pump up Love to make the trade seem less painful to the fans. I guess that might be their jobs, but it was painfully obvious in the broadcast and it came off more as desperation than credible journalism and opinion.
2. Jim Petersen makes Paul Allen's Viking broadcasts look like neutral observation. At one point, he was still commenting on how it was too early to judge the Roy/Foye trade. Really Jim???? He then went on a tirade about how the draft day deal really wasn't OJ for Love, but that it was the Wolves getting Mike Miller that was so important. He argued that people should be comparing Miller vs. OJ to analyze this trade. He then went on to theorize that Miller might be one of the best two-guards in the league and could have been on the Olympic team. Again, laughable points to try and make a decision that looks poor right now seem palatable to the fans. Mike Miller is a fine shooter, but he can't guard anyone. He's at best a Steve Kerr/John Paxson player who needs someone else to help him get his shot. We all have seen that OJ does not need that help. So even on that level, I'd still judge trade as favoring Memphis right now.
Petersen saved his best line for OT when he mentioned that Mad Dog may be the best interior defender on the Wolves in terms of bodying up. He may be right on that. But think about how uplifting that is to hear for the fans. When MadDog is the best on your team at anything other than waving the towl and being quickest off the bench to celebrate a great play, you've got serious problems.
3. I personally loved with about three minutes left, the FSN crew put together a highlight reel of Kevin Love's play that evening. Granted, the kid had a decent game and some of his passes into Jefferson in the post were things of beauty. But again, it felt forced. And it didn't help that Mayo proceeded to go on a personal 5-0 run against the Wolves over the next minute either.
To me, that one-minute stretch or so the difference between OJ Mayo and Kevin Love. OJ is willing to look for and take the shots in the crunch. You can't put a price tag on that. It's an intangible thing that you either have or you don't. You can see it on their faces even. Players who have that cause fans to buy tickets just to see them play. To me, when you draft third, you should be getting a player who has that quality or at least shows he has that promise. We didn't get that in Love.
What still ticks me off so much is that if the Wolves had kept Mayo, it would have given the fans a reason to buy tickets. Players like Mayo, creative scorers who look to take big shots, put butts in the seats. Maybe in the long-term I'll be proven wrong.
This isn't meant to read so much as a rip on K-Love as I think he has the chance to be a good role player for a contending team. But he will never be an all-star. When you have the third pick in the NBA draft, you really should be looking for someone you can build your team around and has all-star potential. OJ seems to have that potential in his future. I just don't see that for Kevin Love based on his physical attributes.
We ain't never gonna learn anything more about Love by watching him sit on the bench. Put him out there and let him sink or swim. I think he will get better by having his head kicked in by bigger and stronger players.
I ain't convinced on Mayo yet. Great, he went on a 5-0 run! He also shot a beautiful airball at a crucial point in OT. He seems to be a weak ballhandler, and many think he is destined to be the point guard in Memphis. Kinda hard to do with no left hand...
I'd rather have him than McCants jacking up shots, but I don't think I would build a franchise around him any more that I would build one around Love. I will grant you that he is a better player than Love, but that ain't saying much.
Danny,
Missed the game...thanks for the Jim Pete nuggets. What a tool. I really can't stand Peterson. The Wolves have become a total bush league organization right down to the TV crew.
And thank you Britt for the Al J call out! Step into the light brother, you're almost there :)
Just wanted to throw this out there from another article: Yes, he's struggling to score and shoot efficiently, but his ability to rebound should earn him more minutes. Think about this: He has grabbed 233 rebounds in 683 minutes this season. Kevin Garnett has 273 rebounds in 1,017 minutes.
Sorry, that last post was in reference to Love.
I just had the distinct experience of sitting at a laptop in my mother in law's Florida study listening to the final 16 minutes of the Wolves-Dallas game on NBA.com while reading the Trey.
These were my first two Wolves interactions in a week and they occurred simultaneously. A 29-point lead turns into a 7 point loss? I'm damn close to speechless.
Happy New Year to Britt and the bloggers. I'll be back at Target Center for the GS game. I think.
Boy we all want Brits comments on the game against Dallas.
Love needs to buy a shot with his pay check. Is there a shot he can make?
Rob
Q: The worst is over. Isn't it?
A: No (see Mavericks, Dallas)
Was last night the worst?
Possibly.
But I have to admit that I took a bit of satisfaction watching D. Casey coach against the team that fired him (without cause) and erasing that 22-point halftime lead. He's far too classy a man to say anything, but it had to be a nice moment for a guy who deserved much more than he ever got here.
If anything, I guess that was my golden lining.
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