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The Minnesota Timberwolves will miss the playoffs for the fifth year in a row this season and will probably finish in the range of 20 games below .500. If you're a fair weather fan, check back next year. But if you love pro hoops, and are interested in being present for the early stages of a planful rebuilding, that avoids quick fixes in favor trying to create something solid and satisfying, well, that might be happening at the Target Center in 2008-09.

After seeing one intrasquad game and one exhibition game, plus a variety of quick highlights, I'm still not going to pretend I know what will happen with this ballclub, whose season begins in just a few hours versus Sacramento at Target Center. When people have asked for my prediction--on MPR this morning, and for the fabulous Sonia, whose daily links to all things Wolves over at Twolvesblog should be a daily stop for any local hoops fan--I've said 30 wins and 52 losses. That's a solid 8-game improvement over last year, but apparently more pessimistic than most anyone else covering the team is predicting. Rather than claim those folks are indulging in wishful thinking or overrating a 6-2 preseason record, let me simply state what, aside from injuries, I believe are the "hinge factors" upon which I think the relative success or failure of this team will swing.

* Randy Foye at the point. Foye was a rookie two years ago, and hurt for much of last season. His return gave the Wolves a significant boost. He has claimed he is a natural point guard and has also intimated that the job isn't that tough for someone of his capabilities. If Foye is as good as he says and thinks he is, I'd tack another five wins on my prediction. But I remain unconvinced.

Foye lacks the anticipatory, 20-10 vision, the trustworthy handle, and the gift-giving instincts of a top flight point guard. These are not inconsiderably deficiencies. The first is probably unteachable, the second can definitely be (and maybe already has started to be) honed and improved, and the third can be force-fed in a second-rate but still acceptable manner. Then there is the defense. Last season, Foye was horrible at keeping his man in front of him, and he seems still prone to breakdowns in that area this year--a flaw made worse by mediocre help from his mates in the paint. Which brings us to...

* Walking the talk on defense. From the first day of training camp, coach Randy Wittman has stressed team defense as a priority. Unlike his boss Kevin McHale, Wittman doesn't have the luxury of blithely proclaiming that this year's squad will flirt with .500. He's got to be realistic, which means figuring out the best way to try and get 10-12 extra victories out of last year's 22-60 ballclub. The most obvious place is defense, as last season's squad was porous on the perimeter, in the paint, mentally, physically, and by any other criteria you want to cite.

The amount of improvement in the Wolves' D should be the primary criteria by which Witt is judged, and not just because he has stated it as his top priority. The additon of wing sharpshooter Mike Miller plus greater health and more familiarity among Foye and Jefferson will almost automatically improve the offense. But to truly emphasize defense, Wittman and company are going to have to make some tough, unpopular choices in the realm of starting lineups, substitution patterns and individual player motivation, and then back it up with some tenacious tough love. Easier said than done. 

Here is where my rant about smallball begins. Last year, Witt frequently put out a frontcourt that had Jefferson at center and Ryan Gomes at power forward. Despite all the talk the coach and McHale pro-offer about how the game is different, that everybody goes small and flexible at various times, etc., this is at best a strategy that should be invoked as a temporary stopgap and situational matchup. When Jefferson and Gomes are your bread-and-butter frontcourt, you don't have a commitment to quality defense. To pretend otherwise is to insult our intelligence.

Unless Jason Collins has lost his compass on how he's managed to remain in the NBA so long, or totally lost any semblance of athleticism, he should be the starting center once he returns from injury in late November. Until then, Mark Madsen should get a fair amont of burn as a guy who faithfully handles interior rotations. Why? Because it is unreasonable to expect Jefferson to become a consistently above-average defender *and* carry the load as the fulcrum for the offense at the other end of the court.

That's not to say that Jefferson should be given a pass on D. But he admitted that he broke down physically in the final weeks of last season, and his style in the paint invites an enormous amount of pounding. To be a strong interior defender requires an additional dose of physicality. Even the best defenders, the Duncans and Kobes, are afforded easier assignments and/or allowed to pick their shutdown-duty spots for their ballclubs. Conversely, guys whose priority is defense, like KG or Tyson Chandler, inevitably see their offensive numbers slip, and their teams are better off for their prioritization toward dirty work.

It is very likely that Jefferson will never be a top-notch defender. I had to laugh when I read in the paper recently that Big Al was working on a left-handed hook to supplement his offensive game. Yup, that's just what he needs, another toy in his bountiful bag of offensive tricks. I wish I'd read that he didn't have time to develop any more wrinkles because he was too busy going over pick and roll D with Foye or McCants, or baseline rotations with his centers and forwards. Bottom line, Jefferson *loves* offense, and the depth and subtlety and precision of his low post game is indeed a beautiful thing to behold. Okay, count your blessings he's on your roster and constantly remind him that he can't be a sieve at the other end. Then, most importantly, put somebody down in the trenches with him that can be a physical and dedicated warrior, both inspiring him and letting him know that it isn't all on him when a guy penetrates for a layup. *Don't* put a guy whose heart is willing but who often physically overmatched, like Ryan Gomes, at the power forward slot. It's a self-defeating strategy.

The other thing I want to see from Wittman's supposed emphasis on defense is near-equal treatment. If McCans is slacking too obviously, give him the hook--but ditto Foye, or Miller, or Jefferson or Gomes, or Craig Smith. Wittman and the players know who is and isn't responsible on various breakdowns, and believe me, they'll know if the punishments in terms of playing time aren't meted out with relative fairness. Now, just as Jefferson gets a little more slack on D because of his O, so should McCants. But if they're abusing the privilege, sit them down. Which brings us to...

*Creating proper expectations for the last four first-round picks. Almost all the visuals on the Wolves' promotional material--billboards, schedules, website shots, ecetera--include Kevin Love and exclude Rashad McCants. This is asinine. It is also potentially injurious to the short-term and long-term fortunes of the team.

Here's a news-flash: Kevin Love is not going to set the world on fire in his rookie season. Like the trio of Wolves' first-rounders before him, he's got some beguiling strengths and some vexing weaknesses; he'll put up a handful of games that will have everyone buzzing with excitement, and some games where folks will have their head in their hands. But most of the time, he'll be in a secondary role. And that's okay.

I am on record as supporting the big draft-night trade that brought Love to Minnesota. I think he is a better fit on this roster than the more heralded rookie the Wolves' drafted and traded away, OJ Mayo. But for this season, the keys to the trade were getting a great outside shooter and comprehensively solid pro in Mike Miller as an immediate part of your core talent, and bringing in a legit defensive-oriented center, Collins, to complement Big Al down in the paint. There is also the shedding of salaries (Jaric and Walker). As for Mayo and Love, Mayo will probably have a "better" year this season. That is nto to say that Love can't become an important component on this ballclub--if he is properly groomed for success.

Jerry Zgoda's profile of Love in the Strib has him burying his head in a towel and down on himself for terrible shooting and all-around desultory play in the home exhibition loss to Chicago, the one that triggered Pat Reusse way-premature proclamation that Love will be a bust. And then Wittman responds to that by approvingly talking about how much Love cares. Well, in this case, Wittman is as off-kilter as Reusse. Somebody better start telling Love that the NBA season is a huge emotional marathon, not a sprint, and that he's a 6-8, 20-year old kid warring in the NBA paint for the first time in his life. He's not only going to flub some bunnies underneath, he's going to get his ass handed to him at both ends of the court on a fairly regular basis. It shouldn't happen *too* often because he shouldn't be playing a boatload of minutes, especially when Collins is healthy. Ditto, all the fans pumped up by McHale's gushing praise of Love and the subsequent PR blitz on his behalf have to realize that this kid has a lot of potential but also a lot to learn. Rashad McCants played 1362 minutes his rookie year; Randy Foye played 1879 minutes and Corey Brewer played 1803 minutes. Barring some breakout that I can't envision, Love belongs closer to Shaddy's total and no higher than Brewer's.

Meanwhile, the weird relationship between McCants and the Wolves' brass has to be reconfigured. Shaddy has to cease being such a drama queen, narcissistically being "born to hated, dying to be loved" in his approach toward the game. At the same time, the Wittman, McHale, Taylor and the rest have to stop giving McCants reason to believe his sense of paranoia and victimization are justified. In terms of pure excitement, there is no one on this team who can top McCants--the squared shoulders and silky rhythm on his jumper, his explosion to the hoop (especially with the left hand) and ability to draw the foul; even hsi passes, which, while too infrequent, betray a keen understanding of the dynamics of the game. Visually, the guy's game is a gem--and unmarketed by the honchos. Is it the scowls and the tattoos and petulant behavior? Yeah, I'm sure a lot of it is. And we still hear all the pablum radio hits, and the safest hip-hop, during the pregame warmups--it's part of the same mentality. (And don't get me started on the team's marketing practice of wheeling out people on death's door for a goosebump-oriented standing ovation, their "heroes in the making." Can we dial back the emotionally manipulative schmaltz a tad?) 

What makes this more bewildering is what happened during Shaddy's second season, remember? Waylaid by microfracture surgery, he became the go-to guy for in-game promotions and skits both corny and touching, and shined in the role. He was eminently likeable and warmly embraced. Was it just coincidence that, when finally cleared to play late in the season, that, despite obvious rust and physical limitations, he exerted himself more effectively on defense than any other time in his career? This season, I suggest making Shaddy both more visible and more accountable--demonstrate that he's part of your mix going forward. Expect consistent offense from him, meaning that when the jumper isn't falling, he becomes a playmaker and otherwise enabler through tough D and decoy offense, and that he forces the action to get to the line. When he starts acting out and mailing it in on defense, sit his ass. This is his 4th year in the league and excuses shouldn't be an option on either side of the equation. The Wolves need what Shaddy has to offer. And McCants' reputation needs the bolstering of a productive, harmonious season. To state the obvious, more should be expected of McCants than Love, Brewer, and perhaps even Foye.

Let's go to Foye next. Again, he's in his third year, and more than any other player has the potential to get this team  a handful more wins. More than a few people are touting him for "Most Improved Player" status this year. I'll settle for solid point guard play at both ends, as in 6-8 assists per game, judicious shot-selection, consistent deterrence of penetration on defense, and the retention of his knack for seizing the moment and making the big shot (or the big pass?) at crunch time. Foye doesn't need to be an all-star; he just needs to remove the question mark beside the PG next to his name. If he can't, then that confidence he exudes will begin to take on an ugly, punkish tinge.

On to Corey Brewer. Just as McCants seems to be the only Timberwolf with the ability to draw fouls when starting out from the perimeter, Brewer is the team's only clearcut lockdown defender, and that should count for something--something other than giving him the green light and otherwise encouraging him to shoot when open on offense. No doubt, in a perfect world, Brewer would burn opponents that slough away, but realize that if he misses too often, he ratifies the strategy and corrodes his already fragile confidence. What I've seen is that Brewer thrives on chaos. The times he's going to knock down that jumper are going to be very early in the game when teams are feeling each other out, or when things have gotten "sloppy" via an assortment or steals or bold gambits. Oftentime Brewer has a hand in these slapstick moments because he's pressured an opponent into a steal or a turnover and has turned into a dervish heading the other way. As I've recently written, he has these boomlets where he'll get 6 points and two steals and an assist in 90 seconds--and then disappear when the game returns to normalcy. This is not a guy you want to have getting the ball swung to him in a deliberate half-court set. I bet his shooting percentage in such instances is below 33%. So, instead of telling him to shoot when open, tell him to make something happen he's open and has the ball--a good pass, a nifty drive, quick furtherance of ball movement, or, if he's feeling it, a jumper. But more often, put him in circumstances that have a higher chance of creating chaos. Which bring us to...

* Indulge in lineups that emphasize tempo. For reasons of team chemistry, fan excitement, player development and simply stirring the pot on a non-playoff campaign, I'd love to see Wittman play a substitution pattern that gets him a slow, savvy and offensively potent starting five, backed by a cool quintet of go-go jackrabbits off the bench.

Everyone knows Jefferson has to start. Foye is the most obvious starter at point guard. And Mike Miller is an obvious choice to play alongside Jefferson, for reasons of spacing and putting your two most reliable point generators as your best foot forward. Okay, so with that trio, the best remainders are your glue guys. I happen to think Ryan Gomes may still be the second best player on the team after Jefferson, and is without question the best glue guy. Plus he's a potential locker room stalwart--give him starter's prestige. Alright, one left. If it is Corey Brewer, that means you're playing small ball with Jefferson at center and Gomes at power forward--plus you are practically guaranteeing that opponents will compensate for the spacing Jefferson and Miller create by leaving Brewer unguarded and daring him to beat them on offense. You also have an offense and defense with those other four that is very unchaotic. The better choice is Collins (and perhaps Madsen until Collins is healthy). He fills out a very large lineup that is very potent on offense, yielding very few turnovers and being able to generate a lot of rebounds at both ends of the court. He also shores up the interior defense and adds veteran stability in terms of temperament.

What's more, this starting lineup creates a potentially explosive second unit, with complementary skills that could be especially synergistic with a go-go pace. We've already talked about Brewer's ability to create, and thrive on, chaos. Well, the same is true of the team's other notorious bricklayer, backup point guard Bassy Telfair, who is at his best creating on the run and, like Brewer, can boost his shooting percentage with transition layups. McCants is the shooting guard, the instant offense who can generate his own shot when things break down, compensating for the relative lack of half-court scoring prowess from the other four. The frontcourt would consist of Love and either Craig Smith or Madsen. Be it his much-hyped outlet passing, his ability to pull up for midrange jumpers trailing the break, or his size being an advantage motoring down for positon in transition--plus the wonderful aspect of not having time to think and get mentally psyched out--Love being part of a go-go second unit would be a really nice way to get his feet wet in the NBA. And the Rhino has proven to have the best on-court relationship with McCants of anyone on the team, and can be a matchup nightmare in the low block.

Obviously, this unit wouldn't always click--indeed would backfire in a spectacular display of pint-sized defense and kamikaze, turnover-prone offense on occasion. But I think there also the potential to jolt the game into a different rhythm, to change the music psychologically as well as physically. And I think such a unit could develop its own pride and personality. Meanwhile, you've got a pretty good starting five resting on the sidelines. It wouldn't have to be a total unit substitution--Witt could sift them in according to foul trouble and matchup quandaries. But it would give good burn to three of recent top draft picks and provide a little fun, thrills and spills in the second period.

Anyway, that's my little brainstorm. We'll see what the pros come up with in just a few hours. Opening day. And so good to be back.