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Another day another bullpen failure for this eminently likable 2008 edition of the Minnesota Twins. Strib writer Jim Souhan, who so presciently clamored for regular innings on behalf of Denard Span and Nick Punto (while I mocked him for being "off his rocker") nailed the dilemma confronting manager Ron Gardenhire and the Twins these days in today's column-recap of yesterday's 3-2 loss to the lowly Royals.
1. The starters are young and need their arms protected for the future.
2. Beset especially by the injury to set-up man Pat Neshek, the bullpen is thin and wearing down. Matt Guerrier and Dennis Reyes, who are 1-2 in the American League in games pitched, served up three straight singles to the impotent KC lineup to hand over the game in the 10th inning.
Souhan went on to rip the team for getting only two runs in five innings off retread Brandon Duckworth, but given the law of averages in a 162-game season and what the team has done for the past five months, that's piling on. Raise your hand if you thought this ballclub would rank 4th in the entire majors in runs scored in mid-September.
No, it is the pitching that will almost certainly doom the Twins down the stretch, and not because there isn't talent there, especially in the starting rotation. Twins starters went at least 7 innings while turning in quality outings in all three games against the admittedly woeful Royals. But for a team that has always rightfully prided itself on safeguarding the health of their hurlers, the staff is being stretched to potentially dangerous levels. A smart item in today's Rotoworld "Daily Dose" column by Nick Nelson notes that between Triple-A and the Majors this season, Francisco Liriano has already thrown 185 and two-thirds innings--this just a year after major elbow surgery and a pitching style that, while improved, still puts a lot of torque on his arm. I've been a doomsday guy about Liriano almost since the day he came up a few years ago, and am glad I'm wrong about his endurance thus far this season. But the Twins are playing with fire letting him flirt with 200 innings.
Liriano isn't the only one who needs to be watched. Nick Blackburn has never thrown more than 160 innings in his previous 6 years as a pro: In 2008, he's already at 176 and two-thirds. And Glen Perkins tops out at 117 innings as a pro before this year's 142 and counting.
The problem is that the bullpen doesn't have the depth of previous seasons--or veteranĀ innings-eaters like Santana, Silva, and Radke in the rotation--to loosen the workload. Gardy has been loath to deploy his September callups in meaningful situations: When I mentioned after Wednesday's game that he had Mijares and Humber warming up in the 7th with a 4-1 lead, he laughed and said he was just getting them loose, with no intention of putting them into such a relatively tight spot.
There's a school of thought--comprising the majority right now, I'd imagine--who say that Gardy and the Twins have no choice but to stetch their ballclub to the limit in an effort to overtake the White Sox. The logic is that you don't get a chance to capture a pennant every year, and when you're close, you go for it. The ChiSox are beatable, and in fact are very similar to the Twins in terms of having major weaknesses as well as strengths, exemplified by an inability to win on the road. Those who fret about the Twins embarking on a ten game road trip should know that the White Sox have a ten-game trip of their own beginning Monday. And Chicago's 32-39 mark away from home is a mere game better than Minnesota's 31-40 record. (For that matter, the Angels are the only American League team playing better than .500 on the road.)
I say that second place is good enough if it means this team will retain the health of all its key players and continue to emphasize player development. For the third straight season, veterans brought in by the front office have bombed, yet in two of those years, products from the farm system have bailed the team out. This year's happy surprises are, in order, Casilla, Span, Liriano (others were less surprised than me), Blackburn, Perkins, and Buscher. In addition, Carlos Gomez is enduring all the growing pains one might expect from a player who blatantly tries to mask his insecurity with false bravado and impulsive displays of temper (he's the Twins' bat breaking leader after strikeouts this year), and who had little or no idea how to work a pitcher when he came over from New York. If this team goes .500 the rest of the year to finish 88-74, I'll continue to stand up and applaud, which has been my posture since they surged into contention in late spring. More to the point, my attitude about this ballclub won't change whether they edge Chicago and then get blasted by Tampa Bay, Boston or L.A. in the post season, or merely take second place. In my book, the Twins have been "good enough" in 2008 regardless of how it all turns out.
By contrast, the Minnesota Vikings come into their 2008 season under a much different set of circumstances. There was no shame in the Vikings' loss at Lambeau Monday night, nor will there necessarily be any if they succumb to Indianapolis at the Dome on Sunday, where they are currently seven-point underdogs. Everyone knew the first four or five weeks on the schedule would be brutal, and that's only been magnified by the suspension of McKinney during that period.
But the way the Vikings have built their current roster engenders heightened expectations and the potential for second-guessing far more than empathy among the faithful. I happened to love the Jared Allen acquisition; Berrian less so, although it still makes sense. No, the problem with the Vikings is the same one as last year: They are investing heavily in a quarterback who hasn't even begun to demonstrate that he's capable. Tarvaris Jackson has moxie, and he has athleticism, and he has a major league arm when he has time and needs to air it out for 50-60 yards. What he still seems to lack is play-calling savvy, field vision, and--perhaps most importantly for any QB--the ability to rise to the occasion.
For me, the play that damned Jackson on Monday night was not the interception on the final drive. When a team is in desperation mode trying to pass its way for a score, the likelihood of a pick goes way up--it's a high-reward but higher-risk situation. No, the play that indicated to me that the 2008 Tarvaris Jackson is much like the 2007 version was the two-point conversion after the Vikings' only score. That's the play you need to make to climb within a field goal, a huge difference from needing a touchdown on that final drive. And the way the play unfolded, Jackson had his man open at the back of the end zone in the middle of the field, arguably the easiest place for a QB to zip in the pass. But, as happened often Monday, Jackson tossed it behind his man.
Here's the problem: Jackson's doldrums were utterly predictable. Few people will be surprised if he falls on his face or improves very incrementally. It is less likely that he will come into his own and be considered among even the top half of all quarterbacks in the league this season. Yet Brad Childress and company think otherwise. They are essentially pushing all their chips on Jackson's development. (For all you Wolves fans, a very similar analogy is looming with respect to Randy Foye as the point guard in 2008-09.) Consequently, the Vikings braintrust could very easily be taking a roster that otherwise could go 12-4 or 11-5 and turn it into a 9-7 ballclub. And if that happens, if the Vikes squeak in as a wild card or even miss out on the post-season because they didn't shore up their quarterback position, a near-miss won't be "good enough," for me or most other fans. And that won't be Tarvaris Jackson's fault--the dude is doing the best he can. It will be because Childress and the higher-ups have underestimated the importance of QB in the NFL, and vastly overrated the upside of what Jackson can accomplish. For the sake of all you Vikings die-hards, I hope I'm eating those words in January.
One last Twins note before we wrap things up. If I had a vote, Justin Morneau would win his second AL MVP Award this season. I'd give it to Morneau not because he's had such a fabulous season--although he has been incredibly good, especially in the clutch--but because there is a curious lack of quality candidates this year.
Look around the league, especially among the elite teams. The Angels have the best record in baseball but their top MVP candidate is a closer, the most overrated position in baseball. K-Rod will break the saves record this season, but Cleveland's Cliff Lee has unquestionably been the league's best pitcher and will take home the Cy Young Award as proof. Can a pitcher lose out for Cy Young and still win the MVP? Next you come to Tampa Bay, a great feel-good story featuring a roster full of young players blossoming at the same time--but no one player has really stood out with an MVP-caliber year. In Boston, the Red Sox crazies are banging the drum for Dustin Pedroia, who has been superb but sports a lower OPS than Morneau (.877 versus .910) and is in a powerful lineup that includes David Ortiz, Kevin Youkils (whose OPS is better than both Pedroia's and Morneau's) and first Manny and now Jason Bay. By contrast, Morneau is far and away the most feared hitter in the Twins lineup. If I had to cite one stat to justify his candidacy, it is that he has 47 more RBIs than anyone else on his team, an incredible differential on a contender that ranks among the game's top five offenses.
If Carlos Quentin hadn't broken his wrist, he'd be the MVP favorite, but now that he's on the shelf, I don't think the next best White Sox, Jermaine Dye, measures up to Morneau. And for that matter, nobody measures up to Albert Pujols over in the NL, who has played hurt all season yet still hit nearly .360 with more than 30 homers and 100 RBIs while spearheading the Cards' season-long contention. Barring some incredibly dramatic development in the final three weeks of the season, Pujols and Morneau deserve the trophies.
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