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The Three Pointer: Not Enough Talent

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AP Photo/Jim Mone

Game #37, Home Game #18: Golden State 105, Minnesota 98

Season record: 5-32

1. Low IQ. Low skill level. Low chance of winning.

All things being equal, the Minnesota Timberwolves without Randy Foye and Theo Ratliff, opposing the Golden State Warriors on a sub-zero January night having already clearly established themselves as the worst team in the NBA, will lose to the Golden State Warriors.

Well, all things were essentially equal tonight. Al Jefferson and Rashad McCants were off their games a bit, but Antoine Walker emerged from a long slump, Ryan Gomes continued his solid play, and I thought Randy Wittman both coached well and summed up the defeat in a succinct, intelligent fashion from the postgame podium. Or maybe this loss sort of blurs into the other 31 because I'm just not inspired enough to hash out particularly innovative nuggets of wisdom that seem particularly different than the various recaps of so many other games. This wasn't a special loss in that it was a tough, close encounter or a monster blowout, or that one particular facet of the other team was vitally important or one particular player on the Wolves was the giant goat. So rather than pretend we're doing depth tonight, let's just wing it with the impressions and see what happens.

But first, Wittman's take. Asked about the large disparity in backcourt performance (Monta Ellis and Baron Davis were a combined 39 points, 6 rebounds, 13 assists, 5 steals and 4 turnovers in 73:34, versus Telfair-Jaric being 16-7-11-2-6 in 70:05), Witt rued the decision-making. "We talked before the game about how they are the number one team for turning turnovers into points," he stated, noting that the Wolves coughed the ball up 20 times, costing them a whopping 31 points, 13 more, in a 7-point loss, than Golden State yielded via its 12 turnovers. His troops were committing the kind of turnovers that result in 3-on-1 breaks in transition, Witt lamented, then shrewdly observed that instead of making the extra, safer pass, "we tried to split the seams with our passes" and the seams weren't there.

Without calling anyone out by name, Wittman cited the dumb inbounds pass McCants made that was stolen by Baron Davis in the last 4 seconds of the third period and transformed into a layup by Matt Barnes just before the buzzer. This concluded a sequence where, after McCants drove for a layup to cut the lead to 10 with 1:08 left in the third, the Warriors scored 7 straight points to bump it to 17 at the conclusion of the quarter. Witt also called out the turnover spree after the Wolves had whittled the lead back down to 4, 96-92, with 4:11 to play. McCants had his shot blocked, Walker committed an offensive foul, and Jaric was called for a carry, a borderline whistle after a series of inept calls that prompted Wittman to earn a technical.

2. The Little Two

Normally the big two, at least in terms of scoring, Jefferson and McCants both had off nights. Shaddy's was by far the more obvious. On a day when the Strib had spotlighted his inconsistency in a feature piece,he showcased most of his flaws, including the stupid fouls--ladled with an increasing sense of victimization that is at once partially accurate and conveniently overblown in his own mind and emotions--the holding of the ball in the half-court, the silly turnovers, and the sporadic bouts of energy and lethargy. It all amounted to 11 points in 30:12, albeit with 5 rebounds, 3 assists and a team-best plus-minus of zero, which only makes the time he is forced to sit on the bench more aggravating. When he grabbed his second foul with 3:23 to play in the first, for instance, the Wolves scored a mere 4 points in the next 5 minutes, turning a one point lead into a 5 point deficit in the process before Walker went on one of his handful of personal mini-runs (he finished with 26 points).

Jefferson had better numbers: 18 points on 7-14 FG, and 14 rebounds, but Wittman didn't like his lack of aggressiveness looking for his own shot. "Al let them off the hook too much in the first half," said the coach. "No offense to anyone, but if [Al] can get Austin Croshere [guarding him], he's got to back him down and put it in the basket." Jefferson was a game-worst minus -19, Croshere a game-best plus +17. Actually, Jefferson looked for his own shot more in the first half, when he was 4-10 FG, versus the second half, when, despite 3 offensive rebounds, he only launched 4 shots, making 3. Yes, 'Toine was rightly the focal point of the offense, but no way Jefferson should be tied with Marko Jaric as the team's fifth most-frequent shooter in the second half, especially against a paint-challenged squad like Golden State. (For the record, 'Toine had 9 second half shots, Shaddy and Gomes 7 apiece, and Telfair 6.)

For what it's worth, Jefferson ducked the media after the game. He follows the now standard custom of not wanting to conduct postgame interviews until he is fully dressed. He came out, put on his pants, then went back into the trainer's area. A few minutes later, a Wolves' locker room assistant came out and scooped up the rest of his clothes. Jefferson still hadn't emerged by the time almost all the media had gone.

3. Quick Hits

'Toine's breakout game was his first bout of productivity in weeks. Because both he and Gomes understand how to play the game so thoroughly, they are fun to watch, but recently only Gomes has been able to take what he sees the opponent giving him--'Toine simply hasn't executed. But Golden State's fly by night D has a tendency to heal all slumps. Playing at the power forward slot, 'Toine already is a natural floor spacer, causing mismatches either on the perimeter on down low and finding the open man or making a team pay for whatever mismatch they choose. Tonight he shot 4-5 FG from down low, especially little turnaround jumpers spinning baseline on the left block, and 3-4 from beyond the arc. Half of his 26 points came in the fourth quarter, when he went 5-5 FG. He also snatched 10 rebounds, second only to Jefferson among all players on both squads. But zero assists, because, as with Jefferson, the Warriors weren't emphasizing the double team.

Corey Brewer may be hitting the proverbial rookie wall, usually judged to begin slightly before or after the midpoint of the 82 game season. Yes, I know Brewer's minutes have been cut, but it isn't the game-time lack of energy so much as the constant practicing, travel, level of competition, and, in Brewer's case, all the losing. A key point in tonight's game occurred when Brewer subbed in after McCants' third foul with 6:13 to play in the second and the score tied. Mickeal Pietrus proceeded to school him for a trey, reverse lay-up and alley oop dunk in the next 1:48, compelling Wittman to utilize a quick hook and bring in Greg Buckner. That followed a desultory first quarter stint where Brewer committed a turnover and a foul in his first 70 seconds of action. For the game he had one missed shot, one assist, one block, three fouls, two turnovers and was a minus -12 in just 8:24 of action.

Asked what happened in the Brewer-Pietrus matchup, Wittman said the difference was "just experience. I would be comfortable putting Corey on him again." But 8:24 proves he was not comfortable with it--and appropriately so--tonight.

The referees were horrible. The worst display was a no-call on a breakaway layup where Stephen Jackson clearly travelled, but there were a bevy of others. McCants and Craig Smith both got jobbed and then had reason to overreact to all the legit fouls called upon them--there is a reason they lead the team in whistle frequency. But what was also telling is McCants getting whistled for pretending like he was going to fling the ball into the stands, a situation where he seemed as mad at himself as at the refs; versus the veteran Walker screaming at them for no calls during a rebounding scrum and getting only a delay of game for tossing the ball away. The terrible crew: James Capers, Scott Foster, and Tommy Nunez Jr.

While I laughed at Gerald Green running around like a chicken with his head cut off while constantly looking to the bench for instruction on defense, GG went plus +10 during his 8:25 on the court--not coincidentally spent almost entirely with Walker.

Sebastian Telfair is dinged up, perhaps his back. Teammates took turns holding on to his arms and gently lowering him to the floor (instead of a chair) during his times on the sidelines.

57 Reader Comments

Tim (not verified)07:23am
Jan 16
This season is about evaluating the players in terms of who to keep and who to release. In my opinion, Ryan Gomes is starting to prove himself as a keeper. He's being more aggressive and not standing around at the 3 point line. He is a good rebounder and seems like a professional. So far, Telfair has shown that his value would be as a backup point guard, not a starter. Green is probably gone at the end of the season. Smith has value as a backup PF, not a starter. McCants is a big question mark. He is very talented, but inconsistent. He is one of the few players who is successful in driving the lane and getting fouled or making a layup in traffic. In contrast, all of the dumb turnovers and fouls drive me crazy. Maybe, he'd play better if/when Foye ever gets out there ? This team has giant holes on defense and badly needs a defensive center, who can block shots, rebound and plug the middle. There are still doubts about whether Foye is really a point guard or a shooting guard. This team is MANY years away from being a solid offensive or defensive team. The coaching is questionable or maybe it is just that these players are unwilling to learn, it is hard to say. I don't know who the Wolves can get as a free agent in the offseason, usually you end up overpaying for players that were not a priority for their own team to resign, like Mike James, for example. The best hope is that we get a franchise player in the draft if McHale and company are doing their homework and make a good decision, which is a big IF.
Andy B (not verified)11:08am
Jan 16
Franchise player in the draft. I don't know much and not nearly as much as S&P. But I know he likes Mayo and he likes Rose as Well. But, he says hes not sure about Rose's shot and Mayo has a sweet jumper and he can score. Beasley sounds like a beast, but I doubt we need another beast with Jefferson and Smith already here. I haven't seen much of Gordan and the Centers don't seem worth a high pick. But just going by what I've read here and elsewhere I say we take the guy with the sweet J who knows how to score. I a scorer with the ball in his hands at the end of the games in the fourth quarter is more valuable than a true point guard. I love the idea of a true point guard, but I like the idea of having a Brandon Roy, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, or Lebron James even better than getting a Jason Kidd. Though, I'd take my chances with either. We'll get a better idea as the college season goes on and during tournament time, but Mayo may be back up on top by the end of the year on most draft boards if his talent produces some fruitful results by season's end. We don't necessarily need a true Point guard, because neither Foye or McCants is one. Foye and Mayo could share the ball handling duties and both are scoring threats in the fourth quarter who will open up space for Al Jefferson down low. Then, we only need a defensive minded Center that looks something like a young Ratliff or Ervin Johnson of the Wolves one big year, and Corey will hopefully grow into a legit and stronger defensive minded Swingman who can run with Mayo and Foye. In addition we have Gomes sharing minutes or even getting the majority of minutes as a smart swingman who gets makes the most out of his opffensive chances and plays good defense. For the center, we make a trade and pick up someone in the lower first round or in the second round or sign someone with Defense and rebounding being the priority along with an ability to step out and hit a short to mid-range jumper. Rose might be the man and I know we need a point guard, but I'd hate to see us with a great point guard who can't shoot the open outside J or the Three next year as teams continue to clog the lane on Al. Meanwhile, Mayo is getting his chances somewhere else and making his run at Rookie of the Year and among the coring leaders in the NBA. I suppose it could happen the otherway around as well, but, man, I'd like to see someone who you know can score with the ball in his hands again in the fourth quarter. Sweet Js don't exactly just happen and Sweet Js on an athletic body are even sweeter. Right now, Mayo sounds like the franchise player to me.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)11:54am
Jan 16
The big problem the Wolves have with the draft is that if they pick a PG they compound the failures of the past 3 drafts. Foye *has* to work at the point for any of this to make sense. I think all the signs are pointing to them picking a big guard or swingman with the 1st pick. Witt's been complaining (rightfully so) about perimeter play for a while, they've increasingly talked about Shaddy guarding the 3, Brewer isn't seeing any meaningful minutes, etc. Gordon is essentially a clone of Foye and I don't think they'll spring on the kid from Indiana. I really like Mayo and he has the most NBA ready game with a high ceiling, but it is questionable whether he has greater value as a top 3 pick than does, for instance, trading down to 10 and picking Chris Douglas-Roberts. I'd really like to know what the team thinks about foreign players like Danilo Gallinari or Nicholas Batum. I've seen a few of Batum's games on line but not enough to really know anything about the kid's game. I think the Wolves front office should take a long look at what Portland has done during the past 2 drafts; don't be afraid to move picks around for value. If Foye doesn't work out then the choice is obvious: Rose. If he does work out, then you have a decision between taking a high pick and keeping it or trading it to a team a bit further down the line. Who is worth more: DeAndre Jordan at 2 or Devon Hardin at 20? I guess the ultimate lesson from Portland is that you have to maximize the number of chances you have to do right in the draft; stock up on 2nd rounders for international players and work with cash-strapped teams like Phoenix to get 2nd picks in the 1st round. Again: that trade exception has to go for a 1st rounder (Suns) or a couple of 2nd rounders (Knicks). I'm still going to pimp my idea for Theo Ratliff, Doleac, and Smith to the Bulls for Ben Wallace, Noah, and a 2nd round pick. Walker's 9 mil would come off the books after next year and Wallace's 15 the year after that; leaving you with a young team well below the cap and a front office that could address the team's perimeter/wing play with Noah and Wallace working the 5/backup for Big Al at the 4. Also, Cleveland is hard up for a guy who can shoot. Shaddy to the Cavs for Shannon Brown (expiring contract), cash (300k to make the trade work) and a future late 1st or 2nd round pick. Finally, as good as Gomes is going right now, he's going to command a fair amount on the open market this off season. His performance ratings come in around Troy Murphy, Danny Granger, Anderson Varejao, and Lamar Odom. 5 years/$30 million isn't out of the realm of possibility. Another similar player is Shane Battier. He got 6 and 36. If you sign him at 6 mil/year, you've locked up the 3 and 4 for a total of 17 mil/year.
Kate Doan (not verified)12:51pm
Jan 16
What Portland did 2 seasons ago in the draft was to be very aggressive! They brought in a coach who spent that season evaluating which players he thought he could build around, and which he could not. It became pretty clear that the players that they had amassed in their failed and expensive rebuild would never be winners, so they changed tactics, and really went nuts on draft night! Much to their benefit. However, your earlier post about teams that are comparable to this one show how ugly a season long evaluation of young players can be for a team. And the sad thing is they actually had spent half a season looking at the youngsters before that season as well. I admire what they have done in the last couple of years, as well as their incredible patience with some of their youngsters such as Outlaw and Webster.
olowa-ebi (not verified)01:06pm
Jan 16
I really enjoyed Shaddy's quote in the Star Tribune yesterday, something to the affect that "I don't need to be a lock-down defender, just a good defender." Shoot for the stars Rashad, shoot for the stars.
Jim (not verified)01:55pm
Jan 16
That, along with McHale's "I couldn't be happier" with Wittman comment and Glen's "I don't know anyone better" than McHale musing pretty much sum up all you need to know about the Wolves.
FireTheLot (not verified)11:30pm
Jan 16
Walker would be averaging his usual 17 plus a game if he was playing consistent minutes. He is a creature of habit. Play him 35 minutes a night, tell him what you want him to do that night and he will do it. Playing 2 minutes and 6 minutes is not going to benefit the team and it won't bring you any consistency. We want the kids to develop but tell me what they are learning from Wittman because I am not seeing it. The only time we get Green showing up is when Walker is telling him what to do out there. Walker wasn't used soon enough last night. When he was finally used after playing very well the lead was down to 4. Walker took one more shot the rest of the way and the differential got wider and wider. So we want the kids to learn. Well losing is teaching them nothing but me first shooting, no defense and hogging the ball. Walker passed the ball quite a bit last night but no one could make their shot. If I am coach I would play Walker with different combinations on the court for at least 30 minutes a night and tell Walker one night he is the passer. He is not to shoot but to show the guys ball movement, Next night have someone set him up for a shot and so on.
Underdog (not verified)10:50am
Jan 18
The website Basketball-Reference.com has a statistical category called "Loss Shares" in which Antoine Walker appears to be the NBA career leader: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walkean02.html Loss Shares 1996-97 NBA 42 (1) 1997-98 NBA 35 (1) 1998-99 NBA 17 (8) 1999-00 NBA 34 (2) 2000-01 NBA 33 (1) 2001-02 NBA 29 (2) 2002-03 NBA 38 (1) 2004-05 NBA 42 (1) 2006-07 NBA 24 (9) Active 344 (1) Career NBA 344 (1) Career 344 (1) In 1999-2000, Walker led the Celtics in both points and rebounds, and yet, was #2 in the NBA in loss shares (Olawakandi was #4). In 2001-2002, Walker led the Celtics in rebounds and assists, and yet, was #3 in loss shares (Marbury w/ PHX was #5) http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2002.html . In 2002-2003, Walker was #1 in loss shares along with the likes of Jalen Rose, Ricky Davis and Darius Miles. Perhaps there are good reasons why Boston traded him to Dallas. In 2005-06 when Miami won the title with Walker on board -- guess what? He is not on the top five list for loss shares. That distinction went to Ricky Davis, Zach Randolph and Chris Weber. The website does not appear to define "loss shares" very well. In the category of Win Shares, however, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett are frequent leaders. I am a big believer in fresh starts and redemption, but is there a pathological pattern with Walker that we need to look at before putting the reins in his hands? Antoine is fun to watch and has a wealth of experience, but does he make good decisions on the court on a consistent basis?
midlife crisis (not verified)01:23pm
Jan 18
Underdog, It seems like, just from looking at the correlations, that Walker leads in loss shares when he is the best player on a team, and wins when there are better players than himself. This makes sense, because if there are two players better than him (Miami), that would have to be a damn good team. He would have little share in losses because better players would hold the ball at important times. Of course, with KG, Duncan, and Nowitzki, you're ok if they are the best player on your team, and it's not surprising they lead in "win shares". Bad as our team is, I don't think we will be able to hand anyone a "loss share" title. That would imply a set rotation or pecking order. As had been reinforced enough, we have none.
Xand (not verified)09:42am
Jan 17
SnP, good post all around. I completely agree that we have to go the way of the Blazers and do everything we can to horde picks and stockpile talent. A quick note though: I'm curious what leads you to say Mayo is the most NBA ready choice at the 2 over Gordon. I'm not a big Gordon fan, and I, personally, wouldn't draft a 2 at this point, but Gordon has been vastly superior to Mayo in every important scoring category so far. He's a superior 3 pt shooter (42.7% vs. 37.6%) , destroys him in PPS (1.8 to 1.21), gets to the line 9 times per game vs. 3.8 FTA for Mayo, and shoots 49.2% compared to Mayo's roughly 44.2%. Is it the size difference, because that seems minimal at best. Gordon is generally listed between 6'2-6'4 with Mayo between 6'3-6'5. At best we're comparing two slightly undersized shooting guards, at which point I'd have to say that say far the #'s don't lie (and that's not taking the age differential into account). I'd also say that, based on scouting reports and objective measures of athleticism (steals, blocks, FTA), they're a push at best, with similar steals/blocks per minute, although Gordon kills Mayo at getting to the line. Thus far, Mayo's been limited to mostly being a midrange jump shooter, evidenced by his relatively bad PPS and FTA, where Gordon has been a true threat from everywhere. I happen to think both are somewhat redundant with McCants and Foye, but so far Gordon is making a serious case as the best 2 in the draft. I'd also contend that picking a PG doesn't create as many problems as you say. I've long thought that the Foye would thrive in a backup combo guard role like Gordon or Barbosa given his ability to create shots for himself and his versatile size (but lack of true floor general abilities). Granted, the jury is still out, but I think that scenario is more likely than him coming back and looking like Deron Williams 2.0. Personally, I feel that a Rose, Foye, McCants back court could be versatile and deadly (not to mention fun to watch) if used correctly in today's NBA. It allows you to have 2 versatile, athletic perimeter scorers on the court at all times, which would hopefully go a long way to helping eliminate our "dribble pointlessly around the 3 point line until there are 5 seconds on the shot clock and then dump it to Al" slumps we get into currently.
Andy B (not verified)12:22pm
Jan 17
Its something that S&P can say something much smarter on than I and I await his response. But, I wouldn't place so much emphasis on statistical comparisons of the two players. They are playing against different opponents and in different systems. Perhaps taking these considerations into account will further support that Gordan is Mayos equivalent or superior, but I wouldn't go by statistics alone, especially in evaluating college players and draft choices. Also, I haven't watched USC or Mayo, but I've always heard him advertised as a point guard not a shooting guard. If hes a point guard, it means you have a 6'3" - 6'5" PG vs a 6'2"-6'4" shooting guard. I personally would not want another small shooting guard who cannot man the point. I'd rather have a big point guard who can slide over to the two at times as well.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)01:21pm
Jan 17
Good points. My preference for Mayo is mostly built on personal taste, but I do have a few things that are somewhat stat-based: 1- Mayo is the 2nd leading scorer on a competitive team in the country's best NCAA conference. He's struggled at times, but part of this is the result of playing on a horribly slow-paced team with athletically gifted (read offensively terrible) players around him. 2- Because of USC's offensive woes, Mayo has had to rely on isolation plays which are more suited for the NBA than the motion offense that Gordon often finds himself in. Add in Tim Floyd's passion for late in the shot clock shooting and you have a recipe for a low shooting percentage with high turnovers. 3- While the Memphis/USC-Rose/Mayo matchup was a dud, Mayo locked Rose down when it mattered. In the games I've seen him in this year, his defense has been especially noticeable. He's every bit of 6-5 and from the all star games i've seen him next to Rose or Gordon in, he's visibly taller. Other things like quickness of release, elevation on his jumper, lateral quickness, perimeter defense, court vision, etc are quite noticeable when watching him. As for Gordon, I haven't seen him as much but I get a bit leary when dealing with 6-2 shooting guards. Also, as a long time Sooner fan (my wife's an Okie), I don't put much stock in Calvin Sampson's ability to do anything else but run cell phone scams. RE: PG, I hope you're right. I'd be more than fine with Rose on the squad and my beef with the pick would be that the Wolves would have then spent their last 4 drafts on 3 guards under 6-4 and a 180 lbs swingman who can't shoot well enough to play the 2 and who is too small to guard legit 3s. That's my beef on taking a PG. Instead of using the last few drafts to take a 3 (Granger), 2 (Roy) or 4/5 (Sean Williams) to surround KG with, the team has...well, flubbed it. While I'd be happy that they would finally grab a guy with a true position, it would still compound the tweener' status of their last 3 picks....all made with KG, not Big Al, in mind. If the Wolves are unable to move Ratliff's salary or the trade exception for another 1st round pick, I'd like to see them make the best of Foye and Telfair at the point and take the best available swingman with their first pick. They need someone who can play the 3 and the big guard badly and I'd like to think that Foye will work out. If he doesn't...then Rose away and hope that a serviceable big man lands in your lap in the 2nd round.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)01:24pm
Jan 17
whoops...mayo is the leading scorer on a competitive team in the 2nd best conference. stupid brain.
Xand (not verified)05:12pm
Jan 17
SnP, thanks for the excellent case for Mayo - I'm doing my best to get studied up on all these guys before tourney time so I know what to look for. With somewhat limited national coverage it's hard to keep up with all of them, which has probably lead me to put too much stock in secondhand scouting. I'll also be the first to admit that comparing players straight up without taking their respective team context into account is not the best way to approach a draft breakdown.. I frequently bring it up in Rose v. Beasley debates, so you make a good point there. Still, it is worth noting how impressive Gordon's scoring numbers are at the very least. If he really is <6'4 then I certainly agree that's where I get leary when it comes to 2 guards, it's just that I there seems to be just as much haze around Mayo's true height. With so much yet to play out (ooh I made a pun!) it's just speculation anyway, so I guess we'll see when combine time rolls around (should be a good one this year!). I do have to disagree a bit with the tweener issue, though. I see McCants as a pretty straight up 2 guard, who I think still has a chance to be a very good player. You can argue Brewer's status, but I think Corey will be an impact defender at the 3 before all is said and done (though that's just my opinion). As to Randy - you're right here, he certainly was taken with KG in mind and his status is waaay up in the air, but I just have a feeling that we'll ultimately be best suited to embracing his combo status and using him in a way plays to his strengths. I also can't shake this feeling that taking another small SG compounds our past mistakes more than anything.. In the end it's probably all for nought, as the tourney and Foye's return will ultimately have the biggest impact on who we end up drafting, but it's still fun!
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)05:21am
Jan 18
Agreed on the fun part. Check out these Mayo youtube clips to get a sense of his game: Vs. Memphis: http://youtube.com/watch?v=7QkF6GnVSrE Vs. Oklahoma: http://youtube.com/watch?v=jM0iJ43aecU I wish I could find a good site for advanced college stats. I’d like to know what Mayo’s rebound rate is compared to Rose. One of Mayo’s big negatives is his age. He’s a year older than Rose. Here’s another take on the PG debate: pure point rating. This is a stat used to measure assists and turnovers taking into consideration how much a player gets into the lane. Steve Nash led the NBA last year with an 11.3, which is calculated as (100 * [(assists*.66) – TO])/Minutes. College-wise, Deron Williams, Marcus Williams, TJ Ford, and Steve Blake all had ppr over 2.0. So far this year Derrick Rose has a –7.8, Mayo a –5.4, Gordon a –6.2, and DJ Augustin a 2.46. The tiny kid from Texas also shoots 48% from the floor, 40% from 3 and he had a better freshman year than his sophomore one (which is another positive indicator of future NBA success, believe it or not). Augustin is the value pick at the point in this draft and he is another reason why this would be a good year for the Wolves to try their best for another 1st rounder or trade down for value. If you have a way of picking up Augustin in the early teens while keeping a hold of your first pick, you can go with a pure scorer or a wingman or even go way out on the edge and pick Deandre Jordan, an untested 7 foot freshman with immense potential. I don’t think the Wolves could do better in the next 2 drafts than to get a Jordan/Augustin, Beasley/Augustin, or Green/Augustin combo in this year’s draft. The value pick for a big man is Devon Hardin. If the Wolves could trade their way into a Augustin/Hardin combo while picking up future draft considerations (late 1st rounders/2nd rounders), that would be another successful day. Finally, I can live with the Shaddy pick. He’s not *that* out of place at the 2 and his college career was a lot better than he’s usually given credit for. I’d happily take a team with Shaddy, Roy, Williams, and KG over what we have right now. You could even have a point like Mike James and make that little group work out well enough to be competitive. BTW: The Gopher game could not have been more disappointing. First of all, Gordon had 2 fouls in the first 2 minutes and he picked up a 3rd right before half time. From what I did see of him in person, he’s not 6-4 (either that or Jamal Abu Shamala and Kevin Payton are both 6-8), his shot (while effective) is a bit more unorthodox than I thought it would be (he puts it out in front of him a bit more than most players), and he turned the ball over a ton while not being nearly as good a ball handler as I thought someone with his game would be. If he’s going to get a lot of minutes at the next level, he’s going to have to develop some better playmaking and ball handling skills as he really was noticeably not 6-4 (I’d guess 6-2, tops). As much as a player like Mayo should be viewed in light of his college system, the same should be said about Gordon. It will be interesting to see if opposing teams will keep on playing Indiana like Illinois and the Gophs. Last night the Gophers ran a 2-3 zone in the second half that constantly tilted towards whatever side of the court Gordon was on (it especially went nuts when DJ White was on the same side). Indiana is 2-0 in those contests and they have done it with Gordon playing second fiddle. Even more on the plus side, the kid showed that in man on man situations, he can get in the lane whenever he wants and he has tremendous range with which he can shoot off the dribble, spot-up, and off the pick. He’s also a LOT more athletic than I thought he’d be. If he learns to transfer this ability into a mid-range game, he’ll be very dangerous. As of now, he seems to be a completely in and out type of player: all 3s or all drives. He also works hard on d. As a Wolves fan, it’s impossible not to think of Randy Foye when watching him play. As for the real disappointing part of the contest, the Gophers lost to a team that turned the ball over 24 times. While keeping things even at the line, how did they do this? Two words: Spencer Tollackson. When your “center” gets 4 rebounds and you get outrebounded by nearly 20 boards, you’re not going to get many 2nd chances. I shouldn’t blame it all on Spencer (McKenzie’s shooting didn’t help anything either), but Tubby’s squad is a rebounder (or two) away from being a team to worry about. Oh well, it was fun to see the Barn back in action after being turned into a mausoleum under Dan Monson. How about this for a question: which would you rather have, the current Wolves squad or the 2006 Indy Heat AAU team with Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Jr, Daequan Cook, Josh McRoberts, and Eric Gordon?
Andy G (not verified)10:43am
Jan 18
I'd take the AAU team, including whatever bench they had. Even with Oden's microfracture, his career is probably going to be a great one as an all-around dominant center. Note that we haven't seen him healthy, even in his year at OSU. As you mentioned, Gordon already resembles Foye, so that comparison is a wash. Conley is the true PG that we don't have and might draft next year in Rose. And Cook is the lights out shooter that we sorely lack--except those nights when Shaddy is on. The best argument for taking MN, if there is one, is that Big Al is improving every year, his defense will improve, and he'll have a better, longer, healthier career than Oden--(who might actually be 37 years old right now). Then you could say Conley has shooting woes that might not ever get resolved, and the Wolves' potentially taking Derrick Rose is a better option. Either way, my guess is Oden will have a great career once he's healthy, and I'd take the AAU group. This brings up another harsh reality for Wolves fans--we'll be in the Oden-Roy-Aldridge and Durant-Green-(Beasley/Rose/whoever Wolves don't take next year) division for the next 12-15 years. Taylor/McHale should start petitioning now for a realignment when Seattle moves out of the Northwest.
Andy B (not verified)12:28pm
Jan 18
Oden never seemed to move that well to me. Hes big, but lumbering. With his size and microsurgery and watching Shaq this year as he succumbs to injury and less and less mobility, I just have a hard time believing Oden will ever be a dominant center in the NBA. I doubt he'll have a very healthy or even a lucrative NBA career. Still its a tough question between the Wolves and the AAU that S&P proposes. I'd have a better idea after this years upcoming draft, but I'd probably take Minny with the assumption that Oden won't amount to much.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)12:55pm
Jan 18
It will be interesting to see how Oden plays out. 7 footers are a risky proposition in the lottery. John Hollinger has a pretty decent draft ranking system and that's one of his big red flags: 7 footers. He's got a pretty decent system. Here's how he rated the last draft so you can get an idea if he has anything or not: 1. Kevin Durant Texas 870.7 2 2. Greg Oden Ohio State 667.9 1 3. Mike Conley Jr. Ohio State 637.9 7 4. Thaddeus Young Georgia Tech 604.2 14 5. Brandan Wright North Carolina 601.4 8 6. Al Horford Florida 601.0 3 7. Nick Fazekas Nevada 594.3 35 8. Josh McRoberts Duke 566.7 26 9. Rodney Stuckey E. Washington 557.7 16 10. Jared Dudley Boston College 542.6 31 11. Joakim Noah Florida 528.6 9 12. Glen Davis LSU 521.0 25 13. Sean Williams Boston College 511.3 20 14. Jeff Green Georgetown 505.5 6 15. Kyle Visser Wake Forest 503.5 57 16. Herbert Hill Providence 503.0 49 17. Javaris Crittenton Georgia Tech 492.2 18 18. Wilson Chandler DePaul 483.1 30 19. Julian Wright Kansas 481.4 11 20. Daequan Cook Ohio State 470.0 27 21. D.J. Strawberry Maryland 465.5 52 22. Jason Smith Colorado State 464.9 17 23. Alando Tucker Wisconsin 464.3 41 24. Corey Brewer Florida 462.4 5 Here's what he had to say about Brewer: "Corey Brewer rates way lower than most people would imagine. Brewer's rating of 462.4 makes him a marginal first-rounder, and that's only because of the paucity of Euros in this year's draft. Since this pretty much flies in the face of conventional wisdom, which has Brewer rated as a top-five or at worst top-10 pick, I have to point out that his numbers don't match the general consensus on his athleticism. Brewer's 8.5 rebound rate teetered on red-flag territory, and he blocked only 15 shots all season, which is quite low for a 6-9 NBA hopeful. Additionally, his ballhandling is a concern -- his -0.74 pure point ratio was pretty poor for a perimeter player. Brewer brings his share of positives too, but I'm not sure teams will get what they think they're getting if they take him high in the lottery." D'OH! You can read the whole wrap-up here: http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=72515
Andy G (not verified)01:44pm
Jan 18
I guess it's safe to say that Oden is a huge question mark--could be the next Kwame Brown or the next Patrick Ewing. This is ironic, since he was drafted over Durant because he was the "sure thing." For whatever reason, I have faith that he'll heal up and enjoy a great career. I wouldn't get too down on Brewer...I think once he slows down out there, both offensively and defensively, he'll get comfortable and some things will fall into place for him. Right now, he's too anxious to hound top-notch guards, rather than play solid defense. Brandon Roy made easy work of this by drawing fouls every time Brewer tried getting in his jock. Brewer's offensive game in college, the way I remember it, was a lot of transition plays that simply aren't there in the pros. My hope is that he'll adjust the way other athletic college "role" players like Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter were able. Don't confuse what I just said with thinking he'll end up in Carter's league, but he might make strides in that direction once his experience level allows him to relax and take what's there for him in the half-court. Brewer's struggles also underscore the need for Foye's return to the lineup. The limitations of our players will hopefully be less apparent when Randy comes back and draws defensive attention away from Brewer/McCants/Jefferson.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)02:35pm
Jan 18
I actually like Brewer a lot. He's one of those guys that really round out a team when there's a solid core to begin with. He was the Final Four MVP because he had a solid cast that allowed him to operate in the ever-cliched "open space". My best hope for him is a cross between Bruce Bowen and Manu. Bowen couldn't shoot for you-know-what when he came into the league and he's turned into a nice spot-up guy who can defend the hell out of people. I don't ever expect Brewer to have the 1/2 court game of Manu, but you can see that Brewer knows how to get to the rim in transition. If he can just bring a little of that to the set offensive end (and he's going to realllllllllllllly need to improve his ball-handling skills to make this happen), he'll be alright. With length and athleticism like he has, he's got to get a bit more spring towards the rim. Of course, being 185lbs probably makes him think twice about really banging in the lane...to say nothing again of his ability to dribble his way there.
Andy G (not verified)03:35pm
Jan 18
I like the Bowen-Manu comparison--and I agree that Brewer isn't as hopeless as many think. Some time in the weightroom, some time working on the J, and some improved personnel surrounding him should, at a minimum, make him a reliable starter in the years to come.
RhinoLove (not verified)01:30pm
Jan 18
I'd take just Oden with the microfracture over the current Wolves. Conley, Gordon, etc. would just be gravy. Six months ago everyone was talking about Oden being "one of those centers that only comes around once a decade". If he's even close to being that good (and I think he could be) his value would eclipse the sum of all the Wolves promising players. Give me a break, the guy is 20? 21? Even if he has a short career, you've got a decade of dominant defense and high percentage shooting. He already has game changing size and athleticism...not to mention enormous upside. Compare Oden worst case to the the scrubs that other teams are throwing out at the 5 every night. I really can't imagine him not being an all star very quickly. Unless he is truly shot physically.
Andy B (not verified)02:25pm
Jan 18
I could very well be wrong and I realize how young Oden is. But, to me, he never seemed as graceful as Shaq did when he was young. Shaq was and is huge, but the young Shaq carried that size with extraordinary grace. I just never thought of Oden as athletic. At best I see him as being a smart and large presence in the middle who cannot quite keep up with the game. His impact will be felt at times, but not for very long periods. Over his career, his impact will not be nearly as large as expectations, in my opinion. Brewer might just turn our to have a better NBA career than Oden. My guess is that their contributions to their respective teams will be equivalent. Durant will be far and away the better player. I think his career will be short and uneventful, due to injuries. My only supporting evidence for making this prediction is Oden's size and lack of grace.
RhinoLove (not verified)02:55pm
Jan 18
Shaq had the potential to be the most dominant NBA player ever, and had he worked harder (and ate less), I have no doubt that he would have been. As it was, he was still the most dominant player of his era. Shaq's combination of size and athleticism may never be seen again.So, comparing Oden's raw ability to Shaq's is not exactly fair. Shaq is not the measuring stick of dominant centers, he is the outlier.
Andy B (not verified)03:04pm
Jan 18
Well, if your talking about "dominant" centers Shaq is the measuring stick in todays game. Otherwise, when speaking of 7' centers, all you have are a bunch of journeymen center who don't have much impact in today's game. Sometimes there presence is as much a liability on the court as an asset. Even Yao Ming. To find the next dominant or outlier you have to go back to Ewing and Olajawon. Then Kareem. These guys are dominant Centers and they all had a grace that present and future potential Dominant or outlying centers can be compared to. If you want to talk about Oden as a dominant center, you should think of him as an outlier. Otherwise, he will propably be like many 7' centers in the league. Important pieces on a team, but also at times a liability. And with what Portland has going right now, Id rather take my chances with the guy from Monticello, then try and bring Oden up to speed with the fast paced and athletic style Portland is playing.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)03:50pm
Jan 18
A few things: 1- Everybody should definitely check out Knickerblogger.net and 82games.com for team stats. They really give a good window into Portland's success. Portland is taking a page out of the ol' San Antonio book by slowing the pace WAY down (they're 29th in the league) while maximizing their possessions (they're 12th in the league in offensive effeciency). The Spurs are 27th in pace and 7th in off/eff. To give you an idea of how this works out, the Blazers average 87.7 possessions/game. They have an eFG of 50% and they don't turn the ball over while also getting to the line an average amount. On the flip side, the Wolves have the ball 91 times/game and they shoot an eFG of 47% while turning the ball over a ton and ranking dead last in getting to the line. The Wolves have the ball more, they make less shots, they turn the ball over, and they don't shoot as many free throws. Here are the bottom ranked teams in terms of pace: 30- Detroit 29- Portland 28- San Antonio 27- Toronto 26- Dallas Here are the top 5: 1- Denver 2- Indiana 3- Golden State 4- Phoenix 4 (tie)- LA Lakers I think I'll take my chances with the first group. 2- The thing that really worries me about this upcoming draft is the success of Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum. Both guys were HS centers who took a few years to mature before becoming pretty solid players. Howard has the tools to be O'Neal-like dominant. The Wolves need a center (they need a lot of things). They know that they'll have Oden in the division for a long time. They know that Jefferson performs better at the 4. The list goes on and on. The point is this: if there is any year and situation where a team will stretch to take a center, this is it. Remember, the Wolves only need a guy who can hold his own on the defensive end, block some shots, and hit a turn-around/mid-range jumper every now and then. They need a 3 and a 1 more than they do a big. Jefferson may suck on the defensive end against certain players, but he's the best player on the squad by a LONG shot and they don't need to pass up a solid fit for the home-run ball...especially with decent centers that could pop up late in the 1st round/early 2nd round.
Andy B (not verified)04:09pm
Jan 18
Interesting stat on the Portland style of play (I'll shut up now). I attended the Portland game at Target center and the only thing I got out of it was how much better Portland was than the Wolves both as a team and individually. They didn't play a fast paced style, but they seemed a lot more athletic and explosive. My only point on Oden is that Portland has some chemistry right now. Oden either comes into this and dominates bringing Portland to an even higher level or he steps in and disrupts the chemistry of their current play. He will have an immediate impact either way, becasue his presence cannot be ignored. What has to be hoped is that his impact elevates the rest of the squad and doesn't disrupt what they have gong right now. That is not a guarantee. But, there is also the possibility that Oden never really makes it off the bench becoming a key ingredient to Portland's lineup, due to injury and Portland's alternative of sticking with what they have got and not trying to change their identity around an injury-prone and rehabilitating center. I don't think it is guaranteed that The Wolves will have a worry of Oden for a decade or more. He might be far down the list of players for them to worry about. Of course, this knee injury might be a blip and he'll be everything everyone says he will. I just ain't gonna bet on it. All that said, I certainly agree with you that the number one issue for the Wolves is not to try and get a dominant center, but a center whose impact is on the defensive end. For this a lower 1rst round pick seems better for attaining this than using a high pick to try and get the home run with a center. The spots they need to fill are the 1 and the 3 before the 5. Foye and McCants (and maybe Brewer, too) appear to have the 2 covered.
Andy G (not verified)03:12pm
Jan 18
Being about 30 years too young to make an informed comparison, but still willing to try, I think a better comparison for Oden is to Bill Russell--(this was a common comparison heading into the draft). Shaq was the next Wilt Chamberlain, and came through in many respects, with four championships and huge numbers throughout his prime. Like all of these comments about Oden, this one is dependent on his knee and other injuries healing up, but I think Oden's surrounding cast lends itself toward him fitting in a Russell-type role with that team. When I saw Portland play at the Target Center, two main things stuck out. 1) Brandon Roy wasn't quite as impressive as I expected. He was very good, and a great team player, but not the type of player you can build a contender around, if you count on him consistently in 2-man game sets. 2) Everyone else was much better than I expected. This was truly a "team" in every sense of the word. Steve Blake, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, James Jones, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Sergio Rodriguez off the bench (8 assists in 11 minutes that night) were all high quality players that gelled as a unit. I say this because I think a great rebounding, shot-blocking, outlet-passing center could make that unit tear teams apart with fast breaks and great team basketball--a lot like the Celtics of the 1960s. If it becomes a Roy-Oden, slow down, 2-man game, however, I think they will struggle to win championships. Roy will never be Kobe and Oden will never be Shaq. Both could be great, however, in a vintage Celtics-style attack.
Andy B (not verified)03:19pm
Jan 18
I never liked that comparison of Oden to Russell. It was only made because Oden has an impact on the defensive end and is a shot blocker. However, Oden blocks shots with his size and strength. Russell blocked shots with his athleticism. Russell also was only 6' 9". Oden is large, not quite as large as Shaq, but large like Ewing. Ewing is a better comparison for Oden than Shaq or Russell coming out of college. But, Ewing was a force in college and played 4 years (I think). He was athletic and graceful and didn't have the any injury problems in college, let alone a bum knee that made him sit out a year. If Oden can have an NBA game like Ewing, he'll be just fine - even great and might get a couple NBA championships ring or two. But, I don't think he'll have that career. I'm thinking Joe Barry Carroll.
Andy G (not verified)03:46pm
Jan 18
I think you're underestimating how awkward most 7-footers look at age 19. I realize this is changing, with young big guys trying to mold themselves into KG-type forwards, but true 7-foot centers don't usually look very "graceful" until their 20s and Oden might look like a whole new player and athlete once he fills out that frame a little better. As one example of Oden's current athletic talents, he was able to shoot left-handed free throws with moderate success, while playing with his hand injury. There aren't a lot of NBA guards that could do that as well as Oden did. Having a big, ambidextrus, 20-year old center is a prize possession in the NBA. If I were a Blazers fan, my only worry would be the knee and the validity of his birth certificate, since he looks 50. If he really is only 20 or so, and the knee heals up like Shaddy's and Amare's, I'd be planning to keep the next 12 Junes open, to make sure I didn't miss any of the 5 or 6 NBA Finals that my team was playing in.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)07:28am
Jan 16
A few things: 1- It didn't affect the outcome of the game, but that was some of the worst refereeing I have seen all year. I've worried about the Wolves falling into the NBA ref trap that awaits most bad teams: they get a rep for complaining/sulking over calls, which then leads to more calls and more complaining/sulking. 2- I think the series that was most emblematic of the night was about 4 minutes to go in the 4th when the Rhino had a nice block. The ball was batted out to Walker who meandered his way (as fast as he can) up court on a semi-fast break. On TV it was pretty obvious that Shaddy had the after burners on and he had broken away from the defense a good 3-4 steps ahead of anyone else on the court. It was especially obvious because he jacked up his hand for the pass a'la Randy Moss. Toine' obviously saw Shaddy and he also saw the defense collapsing into the lane, opening up some good angles from the wing and some open spots along the 3 point line. Toine then dumped the ball to Green who correctly shot through the seam and kicked it back out to Toine for an open 3. While this was happening, Shaddy had thrown his hand down and appeared to be sulking. Golden State called a time out and the game went to commercial so I don't know what happened on the bench, but when play resumed, Shaddy got his shot blocked in a go at it alone attempt (which I think is the same block you mentioned above). 3- The Wolves are toying with 2 big milestones; one they will most certainly hit and the other will provide some suspense. First, next Monday will mark Witt's 82nd game with the club. The best he can do is end up with 16 wins. The worst is 12. That is the given milestone. The other milestone is a point differential of over 10 ppg. The true mark of a bad team is their point differential. The 1972-73 Sixers were a bad team but even they kept the point differential below 10ppg. If we're talking all-time bad, forget the meager win total (especially in the modern expansion-filled NBA where 4-5 games can be had in the late months just by showing up) and focus on the point differential. The 1992-92 Mavs take that cake with a stunning 15.2 ppg differential. That was the team with former Gopher Walter Bond, former Arizona star Sean Rooks, and Jim Jackson. Actually, Jackson was their draft pick and he didn't sign until the team was...wait for it...4-57. They went 7-14 down the stretch. The 97-98 Denver Nuggets also deserve consideration as do last year's Portland Trailblazers. It is an absolute miracle that the Blazers won 21 games. Anywho, with the Wolves seeing their margin of losing expand with each and every game, it's something to keep your eye on.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)07:33am
Jan 16
Whoops, correction: The 72-73 sixers had a ppg differential of 12.1. I wrote down the wrong numbers (from a Cavs team in the 70s). You can read about the 72-73 Sixers here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1973.html
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)08:08am
Jan 16
Whoops, another one: the 2005/06 Blazer squad is one of the worst teams ever, not last year's squad. They were the worst offensive and 28th worst defensive team in the league and they lost their games by an average of 9.5 ppg. Interestingly enough, this squad is probably the most apt comparison to this year's Wolves. Bassy at the point, Zach Randolph at the 4/5, Theo Ratliff hurt on the bench, Darius Miles playing the role of Ryan Gomes...the list goes on and on.
A.K. Agikamik (not verified)09:42am
Jan 16
One more correction, SnP. Witt won 12 last season (12-30) and has five wins under his belt thus far (5-31). He could end up 17-65 at worst or 21-61 at best. I'll take the under.
A.K. Agikamik (not verified)09:44am
Jan 16
Now its my turn. 5-32 thus far - 17-65 low end 20-62 high end. I still take the under.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)09:58am
Jan 16
Stupid math. Here's to the social sciences!!! PS: I'm going with the 17 as well.
el machino (not verified)07:57am
Jan 16
Wow, Walter Bond, thanks for mentioning him. There's a name I had all but forgotten. Good memories there. And I forgot the guy actually played in the NBA, albeit for a team with a 15.2 ppg differential.
Jim (not verified)10:41am
Jan 16
This team will be remembered as one of the worst of the modern era. The scary thing is that record wise, its hard to imagine next year being much different. Who knows if their draft pick will contribute much in terms of W's, especially if its a PG. They won't have much money to spend in free agency (plus the chances of anyone of significance coming here are so low its not even worth talking about). They can probably get some cap relief and low picks via trade, but that's not gonna win in 08-09. Brewer, Foye and McCants need to make quantum leaps for the Wolves to be even respectable next year. As for the refs, in this league, your not going to get the slightest benefit of the doubt unless you clean up the blatantly stupid fouls (McCants) the idiotic mental lapses (last night's stolen inbounds passes) and the reputation for complaining constantly even though you have no credibility (Wittman). If the Wolves stop embarrassing themselves by the way they play ball and stop whining about calls to the refs, eventually they'll get screwed over a lot less than they are now.
el machino (not verified)07:51am
Jan 16
Thanks for the info about Telfair's back. I was wondering why he couldn't finish on a layup or two (or was it three?), especially on a 2-on-1 break. Or, maybe he just blew the shots. Just curious, does anyone know why we (quickly) let Beno Udrih go oh so long ago? He seems to be doing OK in Sacramento. Yes, yes, I know - hindsight. But if we had more foresight, we wouldn't need my hindsight.
Cheezy B (not verified)09:38am
Jan 16
Four Things: First off, Marko Jaric is a terrible point guard. He missed a wide open Al Jefferson on the pick and roll several times. He also had tiny Monta Ellis guarding him, why couldn't the much larger Marko back Monta down and take advantage of his size. Second, Craig Smith had a terrible game. Here is a series of plays involving Smith; fouled on missed shot, missed free throw one, missed free throw two, Telfair steal and pass to Smith, missed open layup, shot blocked by tiny Monta Ellis. That series of events solidified for me that the Rhino is destined for Europe. Third, Gerald Green's headband makes me want to run out on the court and punch him in the throat. He wears it on top of his head instead of around his head. He looks like an idiot, but maybe he is just trying to look like he plays. Finally who is the number one college stud? It is almost not worth breaking down this teams pitiful efforts anymore. Let us speak of the brighter future. Which college or freak foreign studs are out there? I have heard Beasley but who else is there. Which stud player is McHale going to draft and then trade away. First Ray Allen, then Chauncy Billups and most recently Brandon Roy. I hate McHale and our stupidly loyal owner.
Britt Robson10:25am
Jan 16
CB-- Good observations on Jaric. His failure to exploit Jefferson's rolls to the hoop were prominent in my notes but forgotten as I wrote. And yes, it is a mystery (but not new information) that a 6-7 backcourt player with a questionable jumper hasn't developed a post-up game or anything positive with his back to the basket. Smith is a more interesting case. Yes, he did have that embarrassing sequence you spoke of, but actually was quite valuable last night in working with Walker to spread Golden State's defense. A 'Toine-Rhino frontcourt is almost never a good idea, in my opinion--except against Nellyball D. Because Smith doesn't have to camp in the low block as much as Jefferson, he can clear to the other side and let Walker operate. According to popcornmachine.net, the Rhino had two stints last night. The first was from the final 1:15 of the first quarter through 4:46 of the second quarter, a six minute time in which the Wolves were plus +3 (this included the sequence to which you referred). The second was the opening 6:43 of the fourth quarter, during which the Wolves were plus +9. What's revealing about this is that all of Smith's time was in tandem with Walker and without Jefferson (Wittman finally seems to have realized the Jeff-Rhino pairing is usually poisonous). Here's what's revealing about all this: If Smith was plus +12 during his 12:45 of play, so was Walker, who was always paired with him. But since 'Toine was plus +3 in 25:40 overall, that means he was minus -9 in the 9:55 he played without Smith. So the Rhino didn't have such a terrible game after all. Finally, calling Green an idiot, saying you hate McHale and referring to Taylor as stupidly loyal doesn't exactly elevate the debate around here. And because of the cheap-shot cliches, I'm going to nitpick you and note that Billups wasn't drafted nor traded away by McHale; he was signed as a free agent and would have stayed if then-coach Flip Saunders would have committed to playing him more at the point, but Flip at the time preferred Terrell Brandon.
Cheezy B (not verified)04:08pm
Jan 16
I rescind my Rhino comment. I am actually a Rhino fan but that sequence made me temporarily question his abilities. As far as cheap-shots, come on that headband looks rediculous. The shots at the front office were my way of looking to the future. After this season we will have an opportunity to rebuild this team. Is this front office who we want in charge of the rebuilding? They have a terrible track record. Maybe McHale has learned while on the job. Maybe if we get a new GM we will have to live through his growing pains. I'm conflicted. I'm excited about a good lottery pick but I'm worried about the front office screwing it up.
Andy G (not verified)10:21am
Jan 16
With last night's Wolves performance not leaving much for interesting discussion, why not focus on players from other teams that recently visited the Target Center? Here's a good question, after seeing Dwayne Wade and Baron Davis play here the last two weeks, who would you rather have running your team? Last year, nearly everybody would have said Wade, but I think I came away slightly more impressed with Davis. For one, his defense on McCants was insane. Shaddy was so much weaker and slower than Davis that it made me rethink all the praise I've dumped on our sulking shooter this season. Granted, Davis was helped by officials who refused to call anything short of a two-hand chuck to the chest, but his defense was impressive nonetheless. Also, Davis has a much prettier three-point shot than Wade, and drives almost as effectively. One thing about Wade that I was surprised at, was how skilled of a passer he has become. If his post players could catch the ball, he would have had double-digit assists against MN. I'd say, in terms of passing, the comparison is a wash. Lastly, they both have shown durability issues, so I can't give either the edge there, either. Overall, I came away a little more impressed with Davis. Maybe it was the officials, and maybe it was having better teammates. Both were miles ahead of any Wolves player.
Cheezy B (not verified)04:21pm
Jan 16
Excellent discussion idea. I have become a huge Warriors fan. I enjoyed their style of play all last season and it was punctuated by their play in the playoffs. I love the way Baron Davis plays. He can do anything; post up, perimeter shots, mid-range, drive, create his own shot, pass, dunk and play nasty defense. Davis also has a knack for the clutch shot. Wade on the other hand is an excellent penetrator, clutch shooter and distributor. Wade is also three years younger. Wade's youth makes him an appealing pick but I would love to be able to see Davis play forty-some times a year. I'd have to pick Davis.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)06:08pm
Jan 16
I'd go with Wade. When healthy, he is one of the top-3 players in the league behind LeBron and Chris Paul. Of course, the health question is a tough one to ignore, but the young fella is still...well, young and I think he'll be better for it once Riley gets his wish and retires. In 05-06 and 06-07, Wade was simply unstoppable; averaging over 25 pts, 6.3 ast, and 4.5 reb per 36 minutes. His usage % (low 30s), rebound rate (@8), and eFG (50%) are all well above league averages and he gets to the lane on par with Kobe and Richard Jefferson. Even in his weakened state on a horrible Heat team, he's in the top 20 for assists, steals, points, apg, and PER rating. He's up there in loss shares and TO's but that's mostly the result of playing for a crappy team with no other good options. Davis trails Wade in nearly each and every single one of these categories while playing Nelly Ball. Golden State has the 3rd quickest pace in the league with the 7th best offensive efficiency (111.2 p/100pos). The Heat have over 6 fewer possessions/game and they score nearly 10 points less/100 possessions. I think the young player to envy the most (outside of the insanely good LeBron) is Chris Paul.
Andy G (not verified)06:56am
Jan 17
I attended both the Heat and Warriors game, and I will say that Wade was more spectacular than Davis--(at least in those 1 game samples)--but I guess I just came away thinking that Baron's game was more built toward winning close games, even if Wade has a title under his belt. Baron has a lot of the strength and command over the half-court game that Billups has in Detroit, along with most of the flash of D-Wade. Wade's most impressive attribute to me was how unbelievably quick he is with the ball. Sometimes it's hard to pick that up on tv, I guess, because it was 10x more amazing to me, finally seeing him live. Both players are fun to watch.
Xand (not verified)05:06pm
Jan 16
Good question Andy. If age and injuries aren't a concern, I'd really have a hard time picking one. Davis is one of the top 2 or 3 pg's in the league if he's completely healthy, though it's been hard to see that with his injury history. If he isn't falling in love with pullup 3 pointers he's virtually unstoppable off the dribble, and his post game is downright beastley for a PG plus he's a two-way player. On this topic, the Wolves staff would do well to sit Foye down and make him study as much tape of Baron as they can possibly find.. his physique and athleticism are eerily similar, so if he can take anything at all from Davis' playbook it could do amazing things for his development. If you give me each guy in his prime and promise me no injuries, I'd probably actually lean to Baron. Wade is certainly a good passer, but Baron is the complete package and is a true point. Looking at the dominance of guards like these two is a big reason that I'm holding out the Wolves take a hard look at Rose. He's drawn comparisons to everyone from Baron to Jkidd to a Payton, which should tell you something.
Andy G (not verified)07:03am
Jan 17
Like a lot of the readers, I will confess to not having watched enough college hoops. My only worry with Rose, and maybe it's totally unfounded, is that he'll be a bad shooter with the same struggles that Telfair is going through--(and might not ever escape from). After the homerun PG picks of Paul and Williams, I hope the Wolves are able to give an honest evaluation of Rose and take him if they truly believe he's in that category, and pass for a more sure thing if they don't.
Xand (not verified)09:18am
Jan 17
Andy, I can understand that concern, although I think it's worth noting that Rose shoots a higher % from everywhere on the floor than Mayo, including behind the 3pt line (almost 40%, not including yesterday's game). Of course, he shoots the 3 with a lot less frequency, but the knocks on his shooting are still way overblown. From what I've seen, he's a decent shooter at the very least. Not great, but he has a good, consistent shooting motion and can knock it down if given the time. The thing about Rose compared to Telfair is that his first step is incredible for a guy his size (he's 6'3 at least, if not 6'4) and, unlike Bassy, he should have no problem getting his shot off against NBA defenders. Bassy gets stuck on the perimeter because unless he gets to a huge open space on the floor he's afraid to shoot it, and I can't see that happening with Rose given his size and athleticism. I've heard more than a few people refer to him as one of the fastest guys with the ball in his hands they've ever seen.
Andy G (not verified)01:03pm
Jan 17
Good to hear about Rose's shooting--like I said, I haven't paid enough attention to form my own opinion on it. Another key factor will be Foye's play in the second half of this season--hopefully, he establishes whether his future is at the 1 or the 2, so we can draft accordingly. However, like others on here have stated, I think with a 15-67 (or something close to that) record, you take the best player available and look to the future, rather than hope to build that perfect starting lineup for next year. If Rose is that guy, then by all means, draft him. Chances are, we'll be sitting pretty high in the 2009 lottery as well, when we can fill the position left open by drafting another guard--(provided our debt to the Clippers isn't unprotected by that point...I don't know the answer to that). Hopefully Miami continues it's downward cycle until the Davis/Blount pick is unprotected. A break like that has been a long time coming for Wolves fans.
Dub Nation (not verified)06:09pm
Jan 16
30 year old Bay Area native here. As a Long suffering dubs fan and I can honestly say that I know what you Wolves fans are going through. All I can say is keep supporting your team and it all starts at the top. Cut the fat and build around Al Jefferson. A complete overhaul is needed. Mchale & Co. needs to go! How bad does the owner want to win anyway?
Sternmat (not verified)12:25pm
Jan 16
Britt, here's my question of the day: How much do you think continuity matters relative to talent level? Having seen some of the West's elite in the past couple of weeks (Dallas, Denver, Portland & GS in person/ Houston & SA on TV), it's become pretty apparent to me that half of the battle is actually knowing what your teammates are going to do/give you on a daily basis. The fact that so many of these teams a) have lowturnover, particularly in their top 5-8 guys, and b) have at least 2 go-to guys is the key. Even Portland has basically the same nucleus from last year (obviously they wish they were working in Oden), and they've shown big improvement. I'm not excusing the Wolves -- they have far less talent than those teams (managemen'ts fault/plan)and half the guys on the floor really have no clue (i'll put that on the players as much as the coaches, though I think few have ever been as overmatched as good old R-Witt(less), particularly on the defensive end. But I find it interesting that GS can throw those backdoor lobs and work those fake pick-immediate roll plays that seem to work more often than not, where the Wolves either don't do it or botch it completely. But when you wind up with the five guys on the floor that probably have rarely practiced together (I certainly wouldn't have contemplated a Bruckner-Telfair-Walker-Rhino-Brewer lineup, which happend a couple of times), it really shows. If not for Walker playing great (clearly that's a twice-a-month occurence at this point), that unit gets slaughtered and we're staring glassy-eyed at another wolves blowout instead of lamenting the fact that this was a very winnable game that was begging for a few more plays (Telfair layups, made freethrows) and better officiating to become victory #6. I guess that's why I'm not expecting any initial improvement IF(it's not yet WHEN, in my opinion) Theo and Foye come back. Sure they'll be an upgrade (especially on defense, I hope), but it's going to take a while before they are comfortable playing with their teammates (and vice versa). I fear many more lopsided losses before it gets better, but maybe it signals hope for improvement next year, though we'll probably have a whole new cast of "characters".
drza44 (not verified)01:16pm
Jan 16
Mr. Robson, I would like to ask your permission to do something, but your e-mail address is not listed among the Rake staff on the 'contacts' link. Would you mind e-mailing me (I assume you have access to the e-mail addresses that we put in each post)? As for the game last night, many of the salient points have already been mentioned. The one point that stood out to me, again, is just how much this team lacks a perimeter scoring threat when McCants goes to the bench. The offense, never a beautiful thing, gets nigh unwatchable when there is no perimeter threat out there. In fact, on a possession-to-possession basis the argument could almost be made that McCants needs to touch the ball in every trip down court (at least until Foye comes back). Petersen last night mentioned how much more effective the pick-and-roll is with McCants as opposed to Telfair, who the defense simply dares to shoot. A similar argument could be made for Jaric as well, and could be modified to include straight post-ups as well since the defense can sag off of any of our guards except McCants and make the entry to the posting Jefferson (or Smith, or Gomes) that much harder. Basically, the team really needs perimeter players that force the opposition to play defense in order to open it up in the middle and avoid the basketball equivalent of 9 in the box...and right now, McCants is the only one on the roster with any hope of providing that when he can avoid fouls long enough to stay on the court (though the charge last night was obviously BS). I'm still longing to see a Foye/McCants combo, where one can be driving and the other spotted up on the perimeter (Foye was displaying a MUCH improved 3-point shot this summer in Vegas...if it's still around, it could add an entirely new dimension to his game). If the Wolves aren't careful, a dual scoring combo like that in the backcourt in addition to Jefferson in the middle could put them dangerously close to fielding an NBA-caliber offense.
Kate Doan (not verified)02:06pm
Jan 16
I agree the offense is horrendous without Rashad in the game. It just becomes a quagmire, and isn't even something to behold when he is in the game. However, Rashad takes himself out of the game mentally as much as the the foul trouble takes him out. McHale had a quote the other day about not getting your head down when a great offensive player makes a shot even if you have good defense. That is precisely what happened to Rashad at the end of the third quarter. Davis hits a contested three, and immediately Rashad turns the ball over, and the Warriors get a lay-up. People think Wittman is taking the kid out of the game because he is in the doghouse, but it is because he knows it will only get worse from there. Usually, after a brief time on the bench, Shaddy gets back in the game and is fine. He's got plenty of talent, but you can't rely on him to bounce back quickly when something gets to him.
Andy B (not verified)01:32pm
Jan 16
I'm not an NBA coach. And I understand the whole thing about placing players in position where they can succeed. This year is a rebuilding year. I accept that. I was in favor of the KG trade (shoot, I even find myself getting a small measure of joy out of Boston's recent skid of losing 3 of their 4 past games - a mild mid-season slump every team must endure or the beginnings of a season ending slide as the young Boston contributers hit the mid-season wall.?). I was not going to measure this season on wins vs. losses. I was on board with evaluating the players on wins and losses. But, this is too much. I tuned in the radio last night and heard Wittman going on about the starting lineup for the night against golden State and returning to what got them the win against Miami. I can't stand this. Okay, if it worked, I'd say well, Wittman is no dummy. I could even buy that because you want players to be put into situations where there chances for success are greatest, then you have to adjust your starting lineup to match up against the team you are playing. But, Dammit, nothing is working and no situation seems to soot this team for success. Start Al Jefferson at the 4 every single night. Put a center (not Smith, not Walker) alongside him every single night. Start Gomes at the Three Every single night. Either continue to go with Telfair and suffer through his shortfalls at the point, or give it to Jaric every single night. If you go with Jaric, let him get burned by quicker and smaller point guards until he learns to use his size and other attributes to his advantage. He might not have any advantage (as it is becoming clearly more evident), but if you decide to lose with Jaric, then lose with him and let him either succeed or fail and get his ass back to Europe. Start McCants every night with lots of minutes. Give Brewer consistent minutes off the bench. Craig Smith is Jefferson's backup. Let him playu only when Jefferson sits. Sorry Craig, but thats the way it is. Walker is the vet getting consistent minutes as well, but keep him within the team identity. I hate the going small because Golden State goes small, then playing Doleac every 4 or 5 game when you face a Shaq, Ming or Duncan. Let our young players fail against the best, because they are going to fail anyway. Quit tinkering lineups. Find an identity and stay with it. This is driving me nuts. They could play Green every game all game for Gods Sake, and at least I'd know it was a plan - score as much as possible.
Britt Robson10:50pm
Jan 20
Well folks, You'll have to take my word for it that I wrote a trey, finished it about 7 p.m....and then promptly lost all the copy when I couldn't get into my "node hierarchy" (don't ask) and tried to use "preview" on my copy as a fix to get "node hierarchy" to work, as happened on my last trey. Now I'm not going to risk another rendition until I am sure "node hierarchy" is accessible. Instead I went and watched a great Carolina Chocolate Drops Concert at the Cedar. For what it's worth, the first point was about the Wolves and fouls (the trey was called Foul Play) and how while they are indeed getting jobbed, it wasn't the reason they lost Saturday in Denver (naturally the explication was much more interesting--easy for me to say now). The second point was about how silly it is to keep playing a small lineup, with Jefferson, Gomes and McCants all out of position so that Marko Jaric stays in the lineup instead of Chris Richard or Michael Doleac. The third point was the usual cleanup. I'll figure out how to post something, one way or another, by Tuesday so we can look at both the Denver and Golden State games.

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